How evenly matched are Tennessee and Georgia?
Oddsmakers and bettors can’t come to a consensus. The line already has moved. Some sportsbooks list Tennessee as a slight road favorite. Other books have Georgia as a slight home favorite.
Neither team is ranked, but both the Vols and the Dawgs were earlier in January. Georgia’s RPI ranking is No. 42, followed by Tennessee at No. 43.
The SEC rivals will tip off at 7 pm, ET, tonight in Athens (SEC Network). The matchup features plenty of star power, headlined by Tennessee’s Ja’Kobi Gillespie (18.8 PPG) squaring off against Georgia’s Jeremiah Wilkinson (17.7 PPG).
Georgia (16-4, 4-3) is 11-1 at home but just 5-7 ATS as a home favorite. The Dawgs haven’t been a home underdog this season. Tennessee (13-6, 3-3) is 0-2 ATS this season as a road favorite and 1-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Regardless of the sportsbook and odds you select, all can agree that the game is expected to be close.
We preview Tennessee at Georgia and offer expert betting advice.
Tennessee at Georgia Best Bets
Spread Pick: Georgia +1.0 (-105) at Bet365 Sportsbook
Tennessee has navigated a slightly tougher schedule, but its struggles in hostile territory is the deciding factor. The Volunteers are just 1-3 on the road this season.
Georgia also has been nearly automatic at home, going 11-1 in Athens. The Dawgs play with a swagger and rhythm at Stegeman Coliseum that they haven’t consistently replicated on the road. That home-court energy is a massive variable against a Tennessee team struggling to close out games in opposing arenas.
Georgia also an eraser in the paint in Somto Cyril, who leads the SEC with 2.8 blocks per game. What he doesn’t swat, he sometimes alters. His presence allows Georgia’s guards to press up on the perimeter without fear. Tennessee will have to contend with him in the lane, which could force them into settling for jumpers.
Total Pick: Under 159.5 (-110) at BetMGM
The total is set at a robust 159.5, respecting the scoring averages of Georgia’s Jeremiah Wilkinson (17.7 PPG) and Tennessee’s Ja’Kobi Gillespie. However, this number appears inflated when analyzing the defensive personnel.
This matchup features two of the SEC’s premier shot blockers. While Cyril patrols the paint for Georgia, Tennessee counters with Felix Okpara, who has tallied 31 blocks this season (1.63 per game). In conference play, possession counts tend to decrease in the second half as games tighten up. With two elite rim protectors altering shots and discouraging drives, offenses are often forced into lower-percentage perimeter jumpers.
Best Player Prop
The Pick: Ja’Kobi Gillespie Over 18.5 Points (FanDuel)
If Tennessee is able to steal a win in a hostile environment, it likely will be behind Gillespie, who is averaging 18.8 points per game.
While Nate Ament stole the headlines against Alabama, Gillespie poured in 23 points. He is highly efficient, shooting 82.7% from the free-throw line. Expect Gillespie to see 35+ minutes and approach 20 field goal attempts, providing the volume necessary to clear this total.
Georgia vs Tennessee Stats Comparison
Who has the edge when the Vols visit the Dawgs tonight in Athens?
Georgia is averaging 93.5 points per game — 2nd nationally and tops in the SEC.. However, playing that fast often leaves gaps on the other end, as evidenced by the 76.5 points per game they surrender. Its resume is anchored by that dominant 11-1 home record and a solid .5914 RPI, even if its Strength of Schedule (.5284) is a bit lighter than Tennessee’s.
Tennessee, meanwhile, plays a more physical brand of ball. The Vols boast a stout defense allowing just 69.0 points per game, nearly 8 points fewer than Georgia. While they can score (82.2 PPG), they prefer to control the tempo.
The Verdict: Expect a physical first half as Tennessee tries to muddy the waters and slow the game down. However, Georgia’s sheer volume of scoring and the energy of the home crowd should act as the catalyst for a late run. We are taking the Bulldogs to defend their turf.
Tennessee vs. Georgia Odds
Odds provided are consensus figures on January 28 and subject to change.
The books view this as a one-possession game, listing Georgia as a consensus 2.5-point favorite (though shop around; odds are different at different sportsbooks). At -140 on the moneyline, the Bulldogs have an implied win probability of roughly 58% before we account for the juice. The total is sitting at a lofty 159.5, which tells you the scouts are expecting a track meet rather than a defensive struggle.
Stripping out the “vig” (the sportsbook’s fee), the analytics give us the true story: Georgia holds a 55.9% win probability, leaving Tennessee with a 44.1% shot at the upset.
For those of you looking to get some skin in the game, here is the breakdown: A $5 wager on the underdog Tennessee (+117) would net you a profit of $5.85 if they pull off the road win. If you back the favorite, a $5 bet on Georgia (-140) yields a profit of about $3.57 if they take care of business at home.
Managing Editor
A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.
