Kentucky hosts No. 25 Tennessee at 8:30 tonight, with the winner staying within arm’s reach of the SEC leader.
The Wildcats (16-7, 703) are receiving votes in the AP poll but haven’t been ranked since falling out of the Dec. 8 poll. They’re playing better of late, however. The Cats have won 7 of 8, a surge that included an 80-78 comeback win at Tennessee on Jan. 17. The Cats erased a 17-point deficit in that win.
Tennessee (16-6, 6-3) has won 5 of 6 since that setback, highlighted by a win at then-No. 17 Alabama.
Tennessee’s dynamic guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie had 24 against the Cats in Round 1. He again will challenge a Kentucky squad led by the two-way swagger of Otega Oweh. With Tennessee big man Felix Okpara listed as questionable with a calf injury, the physical battle in the paint could decide this postseason-caliber clash.
Oddsmakers have installed Kentucky as a 1.5-point home favorite. The Cats are 7-7 ATS as a home favorite this season; Tennessee is 1-1 ATS as a road underdog.
We analyze Tennessee at Kentucky and offer expert betting advice.
Tennessee vs Kentucky Odds
The betting markets anticipate a tightly contested battle at Rupp Arena, positioning the home team as a narrow favorite. Below are the current consensus odds for the matchup.
Kentucky enters the contest as a slight 1.5-point favorite, indicating that oddsmakers expect a game decided by a single possession. The total is set at 146.5 points, with the “Under” slightly favored at -113 odds, suggesting a defensive grind is more probable than a track meet.
Win Probabilities: Stripping away the sportsbook’s fee (the vig), the implied win probabilities based on the moneyline are:
- Kentucky: 53.5%
- Tennessee: 46.5%
For those new to the window, the odds dictate your payout relative to risk:
- Betting on Kentucky: As the favorite (-126), you pay a premium. A $5 bet on Kentucky returns a profit of approximately $3.97 if they secure the victory.
- Betting on Tennessee: As the underdog (+106), the return is higher. A $5 wager on Tennessee nets a $5.30 profit if they pull off the road upset.
Tennessee at Kentucky Tale of the Tape
In a matchup this evenly matched on paper, separation often comes down to efficiency and defensive consistency. Both squads boast high-powered offenses averaging over 80 points per game, but Tennessee holds a statistical edge on the defensive end.
The table below outlines the head-to-head statistical comparison for the current 2025 regular season, including national rankings.
The data reveals a razor-thin margin between SEC heavyweights.
Both programs have navigated an identical strength of schedule (0.5829). Tennessee (RPI Rank 30) has fared slightly better against elite competition, going 4-5 against the RPI Top 50, whereas Kentucky (RPI Rank 35) is 3-6 in similar spots. While Kentucky has successfully defended Rupp Arena with a 12-2 home record, Tennessee has proven battle-tested, though its 2-3 road record raises questions about its consistency away from Knoxville.
Best Bet: Kentucky -1.5 (-105) at Bet365
Just like in Round 1, oddsmakers expect another one-possession game. This game essentially is a pick’em, so the decision boils down to venue and reliability under pressure. While Tennessee has a slightly better RPI ranking and a 4-game winning streak, the smart money is on Kentucky defending its home floor and sweeping the season series.
Kentucky is 12-2 at Rupp this season. Conversely, despite their recent success, Tennessee has proven vulnerable when venturing away from Rocky Top, carrying a sub-.500 record (2-3) in true road games. In the SEC, home-court advantage is often worth more than the standard 3 points.
Kentucky has the defensive tools to disrupt Tennessee’s rhythm. Oweh has been a menace on the perimeter, averaging 1.78 steals per game (41 total). His ability to create transition opportunities will be vital against a Tennessee offense reliant on Gillespie. Furthermore, Kentucky big man Malachi Moreno provides a crucial anchor; with 38 blocks and 145 rebounds on the season, he has the size to challenge the Vols’ frontcourt — especially with Okpara dealing with a calf injury — and limit second-chance points.
Rick Barnes has challenged his team to play a full 40 minutes after blowing a 17-point lead in the first meeting. Expect Kentucky to feed off the crowd, leverage its rebounding edge, and cover this short number.
Managing Editor
A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.
