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Tennessee vs. Alabama preview: Betting trends, advanced stats analysis
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Tennessee will travel to Alabama on Saturday night to face the Crimson Tide in a game that could determine who wins the SEC regular season title.
Both programs are currently tied atop the SEC standings with just 3 games to go. There’s also NCAA Tournament seeding implications this game as both programs will be vying for position in the bracket on Selection Sunday.
Let’s break down the details of this matchup:
Tennessee vs. Alabama Betting Odds
Spread: Alabama -4 (FanDuel)
Total: Over/Under 171 points (FanDuel)
States: MA, NJ, PA, VA, MD, WV, TN, LA, KS, KY, NC, AZ, CO, IA, WY, IL, IN, OH, MI, NY
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Betting trends to know for Tennessee
Tennessee is…
- 14-13-1 against the spread
- 3-6 against the spread on the road
- 1-3 against the spread as an underdog
- 9-6 against the spread in SEC games
Betting trends to know for Alabama
Alabama is…
- 17-11 against the spread
- 11-3 against the spread at home
- 15-6 against the spread as a favorite
- 3-0 against the spread when favored by 6 points or less
- 10-5 against the spread in SEC games
3 notes for the game
Is Dalton Knecht gearing up for another big run?
Dalton Knecht is coming off of one of his best games of the year in a 39-point performance against Auburn. The Vols needed almost every single one of those points to beat the Tigers in Knoxville and remain alive in the SEC regular season title race (more on that later). This was the first time Knecht has scored 30+ points in a game since Jan. 30. While Knecht has remained hyper-efficient over the past few weeks, his shot volume has gone down in favor of a more balanced approach team-wide.
Knecht averaged just 14.7 field goal attempts per game over that span (down from 21 per game in 6 contests between Jan. 10 and Jan. 30). Overall, that approach was successful as Tennessee navigated a busy February schedule and finished the month with a 7-1 record. But if Knecht is prepared to re-increase his shot volume down the stretch, that could be a big boost for UT’s ceiling as a team in March.
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Alabama’s defense might be beyond repair
As Knecht and Tennessee are rising, the opposite is happening with Alabama’s defense. The Tide have been atrocious on that end of the floor recently — they posted defensive ratings of 114 or worse in 5 of their last 6 games. Since Feb. 4, Alabama’s adjusted defensive rating of 110.4 (per BartTorvik) ranks 262nd nationally. That’s worse than every SEC team except Vanderbilt over that span.
Part of the issue is the absence of guard Latrell Wrightsell, who has missed the Tide’s last 3 contests with a head injury. If Wrightsell is able to return on Saturday — and there is some optimism that he could — it would be a nice boost for Alabama on both ends of the floor. But regardless, defense is a significant concern for Alabama entering this game against the Vols.
Alabama’s defense was also an issue the first time the Tide played this Tennessee squad. The Vols scored 1.18 points per possession in a 91-71 win over Alabama in Knoxville. Alabama’s offense was perhaps the bigger problem, though, as it went 4-of-21 from 3-point range and scored just .92 points per possession.
SEC title implications
The result of this game will have heavy implications on who wins the SEC regular season title. Both Tennessee and Alabama are currently 12-3 in league play enter this game, meaning the winner will have sole possession of 1st place in the league standings with just 2 games remaining.
Tennessee won the first matchup between these programs, which means a win today would secure the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Crimson Tide. South Carolina (11-4), Kentucky (10-5), Auburn (10-5) and Florida (10-5) are all still mathematically able to earn at least a share of the SEC regular season title.
An Alabama victory on Saturday night would ensure it splits the season series with the Vols. The tiebreaker for SEC Tournament seeding purposes would then go to who has the best head-to-head record against the SEC’s third-place team. At the moment, Alabama would have the edge there because it beat South Carolina this season but Tennessee lost to the Gamecocks.
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1 pick for this game
Alabama -4. Alabama’s defense scares me, but I think this Tide team plays a lot better in Tuscaloosa than they do away from home. They also have a couple of matchup advantages (like offensive rebounding and 3-pointers) that give me enough confidence to lay the points here. We’ve seen Tennessee’s 3-point shooting go cold (5-of-17 in its last 2 road games) away from home recently, so even if the Tide are bad defensively, they might be able to get away with it.
States: MA, NJ, PA, VA, MD, WV, TN, LA, KS, KY, NC, AZ, CO, IA, WY, IL, IN, OH, MI, NY
21+ and present in a state with legal sports gaming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-Gambler.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
