Texas takes on NC State tonight in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 9:15 p.m. ET, in Dayton, Ohio. TruTV will provide coverage.
The winner advances to the first round to face No. 6 seed BYU on Thursday night in the West Region.
Texas (18-14) edged NC State (20-13) 102-97 in November in the Maui Invitational. Texas standout Jordan Pope led the Longhorns with 28 points in that game. NC State leading scorer Quadir Copeland led the Pack with 28.
NC State finished seventh in the ACC standings and carries a No. 36 NET rating, while Texas navigated a grueling SEC slate to finish tenth with a No. 42 NET.
Texas is a consensus 1.5-point favorite, though prediction site Kalshi has it as a near pick-em.
NC State vs. Texas Odds
Looking at the current consensus sportsbook odds, the market is projecting a true coin-flip in Dayton. Texas is currently listed as a narrow 1.5-point favorite on the point spread, but NC State holds a very slight edge on the moneyline (having moved slightly from an opening line of -115 to -111). Oddsmakers also expect plenty of offense, with the total set high at 158.5 points—down slightly from the 159.5 opener—clearly echoing their high-scoring November shootout.
For beginners, the point spread represents the estimated margin of victory, while the moneyline is simply a bet on who will win the game outright, regardless of the final score. When we remove the “vig”—which is the built-in fee or house edge that sportsbooks charge to take your bet—we can find the true probability of either team winning. Based on the current moneyline odds, the no-vig probabilities give NC State a 50.3% chance of securing the victory, compared to a 49.7% win probability for Texas.
Because the odds are so close, the potential payouts for picking the winner are practically identical. If you place a simple $5 moneyline bet on NC State (-111), you would take home $4.50 in pure profit if they win, while the same $5 wager on Texas (-108) would yield a slightly higher profit of $4.63.
Kalshi has multiple markets available on this game, including picking the outright winner. They mirror the books.
Each NC State to win contract is $0.51 per, which equates to -104 odds. A $10 investment in those contracts would produce a $10 profit if the Wolfpack win. Texas to win contracts also are trading for $0.51 per, carrying the exact same odds and payout if the Longhorns advance.
Texas vs. NC State Tale of the Tape
When looking at the broader national landscape, NC State holds a statistical advantage in RPI, sitting at 46th overall compared to the Longhorns at 94th. The Wolfpack also played a slightly more demanding regular-season schedule (0.5731 SOS), which is reflected in their 6-7 mark against top-50 opponents.
However, statistics require context, and the SEC bias is justified when evaluating the Longhorns’ résumé. Texas’s 4-9 record against top-50 programs reflects a schedule packed with elite, physical SEC matchups that inherently prepare a roster for March. The Longhorns dominated lower-tier competition—racking up 10 wins (an 83.3% win rate) against teams ranked 151st or lower—but their constant exposure to premium SEC size and athleticism is an undeniable asset that regular-season metrics often undervalue.
How NC State & Texas Got Here
Both at-large teams enter the First Four looking to bounce back from early exits in their respective conference tournaments.
NC State, the No. 7 seed in the ACC Tournament, lost in the quarterfinals, falling 81-74 to Virginia. The defeat capped a tough regular-season stretch for Will Wade’s squad, forcing it into this play-in scenario.
Meanwhile, Texas, the No. 10 seed in the SEC Tournament, lost its first-round game to Ole Miss, 76-66.
NC State vs. Texas Picks & Predictions
The Pick: NC State to Win ($0.51 per contract at Kalshi)
When breaking down a postseason matchup with markets this tight, finding a reliable betting angle requires isolating regular-season situational data. Texas sits as a narrow, consensus 1.5-point favorite, but the moneyline is effectively a toss-up, daring bettors to simply pick the outright winner.
For our spread prediction, the situational trends point toward the ACC squad. Texas won 18 game this year, but a closer examination reveals they leaned heavily on the friendly confines of their own building. The Longhorns struggled to find consistency when forced to travel, managing just a 1-3 record (a poor 25% win rate) on a neutral floor — which is exactly what they will face at UD Arena.
Conversely, NC State proved far more adaptable outside of Raleigh. The Wolfpack won 9 games away from home during the regular season, including a balanced 3-3 mark in neutral-site contests. They also carry a battle-tested resume, proving they could grind out results against elite competition with 6 wins against top-50 opponents.
In an amplified postseason environment, you want to back the team that has proven it can handle neutral-site pressure. Because the spread is so small, there is no need to worry about the 1.5 points. Taking the Wolfpack to win the game outright offers the sharpest, data-backed value.
For our total prediction, the 157.5-point contract ($0.50 per) at Kalshi is heavily inflated by their 102-97 regular-season meeting in Maui. However, relying strictly on regular-season data, neutral-site environments often result in shooting regression. With both teams fighting to keep their seasons alive, defensive intensity will naturally spike compared to a November exhibition. Taking the Under 157.5 offers solid situational value as the pace slows down in Dayton.
Managing Editor
A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.
