Texas vs Ole Miss: Preview and prediction for SEC Tournament opener
By Chris Wright
Published:
No. 10 seed Texas takes on No. 15 seed Ole Miss tonight in the opening round of the SEC Tournament. Tip-off is set for 7 pm, ET (SEC Network). The winner advances to face No. 7 seed Georgia on Thursday night.
These teams met only once in the regular season; Texas won 79-68 in Austin behind 27 points from 7-foot center Matas Vokietaitis.
Sitting on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble with a No. 82 RPI, Texas needs to win tonight to enhance its odds of securing an at-large bid. On the other side, Ole Miss coach Chris Beard looks to play spoiler against his former program. It won’t be easy, considering Ole Miss has lost 12 of its past 13 games.
Our analysis breaks down the key metrics for Texas vs. Ole Miss and provides the best betting advice.
Ole Miss vs Texas Odds
Odds provided by consensus sportsbooks on March 11 and are subject to change
For those new to the sports betting world, the table above outlines the three main ways to wager on this matchup. Texas enters as the favorite, meaning it needs to win the game by 7 or more points to cover the -6.5 point spread. Conversely, the underdog can cover its +6.5 spread by winning outright or losing by 6 points or fewer. The “Total” allows you to bet on whether the combined final score of both teams will eclipse or stay under 145.5 points.
To understand the true likelihood of each side advancing without the sportsbook’s built-in profit margin, we calculate the no-vig probabilities. Based on the current moneylines, Texas holds a 69.81% true probability of advancing, while Ole Miss possesses a 30.19% chance of pulling off the upset. The moneyline is a straight bet on which team will win. If you place a $5 wager on the favored moneyline at -270, a victory nets a modest profit of $1.85. Placing that same $5 bet on the underdog at +217 returns a profit of $10.85 if they secure the win.
At prediction site Kalshi, Texas to win is trading at 72¢ (equivalent to a -257 moneyline) and Ole Miss to win is trading at 30¢ (equivalent to a +233moneyline). Both markets are slightly more valuable than consensus odds at a sportsbook. A $5 investment in Texas contracts would profit a $2 profit if Texas wins. That same $5 in Ole Miss contracts would produce a $12 profit if the Rebels pull off the upset.
Click “PREDICT” in the graphic below to get started at Kalshi.
Texas vs Ole Miss Key Team Stats
Analyzing the comparative data, Texas holds a measurable advantage in its overall body of work. Both programs faced a grueling SEC schedule, reflected in their nearly identical strength of schedule scores (0.5494 for Texas and 0.5464 for Ole Miss). However, Texas managed to navigate that difficulty with much more success, securing 6 Quad 1 victories over the course of the season and maintaining a top-45 NET ranking.
The most notable difference between the two programs lies in their execution against top-tier competition. Texas proved it can compete at the highest level by securing two victories against top-25 opponents, while Ole Miss went winless in six attempts against that same elite tier. Furthermore, Texas was highly efficient at avoiding bad losses, going 9-1 against teams ranked outside the top 150. For Texas, the primary challenge will be finding consistency on the defensive end.
Texas vs Ole Miss Best Bets
Spread Pick: Texas -5.5 ($0.55 per contract at Kalshi)
It’s worth noting that Kalshi has multiple markets available on the spread. Each market offers varying price points, risks and rewards.
When evaluating a neutral-site conference tournament game, digging into the head-to-head history and situational trends provides the clearest betting angle. These programs met on Feb. 7 in Austin, where Texas secured a 79-68 victory fueled by a decisive 14-0 run late in the second half. That proven ability to flip the switch and close out games is exactly why laying the points is the most logical play on the board.
Ole Miss simply has not shown the baseline consistency required to hang with quality conference foes for a full 40 minutes. The squad finished the regular season losing 12 of its final 13 games, with 7 of those SEC losses coming by margins of 11 points or more. Factoring in their struggles, they profile exactly like the lower-tier opponents Texas has routinely dispatched all year. While Beard will undoubtedly have his locker room motivated, Texas possesses the structural advantages to establish early control and maintain a comfortable working margin.
Total Pick: Under 145.5 ($0.52 per contract at Kalshi)
Again, Kalshi has multiple markets available on the total. We like this contract for several reasons.
The Under presents excellent situational value. In their previous matchup, they combined for 147 points, just eclipsing today’s number. However, postseason basketball in the SEC often yields a slower, more deliberate pace as the pressure mounts. While Texas has had its defensive lapses recently, Ole Miss has been ice-cold from the perimeter, shooting a dismal 1-of-14 from beyond the arc in their regular-season finale. With Texas desperate to lock up an NCAA Tournament bid and tightening its rotations, expect longer, more methodical offensive sets that keep this final score just under the total.
Managing Editor
A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.
