Vanderbilt rematch is Survival Saturday for reeling Kentucky
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In a sport where the goal is to survive and advance in March, February brings a Survival Saturday to Rupp Arena for storied Kentucky.
It’s rare for Kentucky to play “must win” basketball games in the month of February.
As the bluest of the (big) blue-bloods, Kentucky’s “must win” reservations tend to arrive in March. By then, of course, everyone that’s anyone or wants to be anyone is playing win-or-go-home basketball.
This season of Kentucky basketball, however, has been anything but business as usual.
Armed with a $22 million roster and the preseason SEC Player of the Year in Otega Oweh, the Wildcats were expected to do what they’ve done most every season in their rich history: compete for and potentially win the SEC championship and play deep into the postseason.
Instead, they are one of the 2025-26 college basketball season’s most confounding mysteries.
At their best, they can win at Arkansas, sweep Tennessee, and compete for 40 minutes at bitter rival and reigning national champion Florida.
At their worst, they are run out of the gym by a merely “good” Gonzaga team and drop multiple league games on the hallowed floor or Rupp Arena.
Then there’s the 25 point loss at Vanderbilt earlier this season, which came on the heels of 5 consecutive victories, including a win in Knoxville.
Kentucky basketball is like an episode of Love Island: you simply never know what you’re going to get. The only consistency for the 18-10 Wildcats is inconsistency.
The curiosity and mystery of which Kentucky will show up on any given afternoon is what makes Saturday afternoon’s tilt with No. 25 Vanderbilt so important to Kentucky fans and compelling to neutrals.
Kentucky, projected as a “Should Be In” club by SDS earlier this week, would be safely in the NCAA Tournament field were Selection Sunday this weekend. But after losing 3 of its last 4 games, and with home games against protected seeds Vanderbilt and Florida remaining and a tricky road trip to desperate Texas A&M left on the slate, Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament status is hardly a given.
That makes Saturday’s contest at Rupp a rare “must win” for Kentucky in the month of February. No more excuses. Minimal margin for error.
Embarrassed by Vanderbilt once this season, Kentucky should both respect and remember how good the Commodores can be and the level of effort and “want to” it takes to defeat them.
“It’s not fun to watch that film,” head coach Mark Pope told the media this week.
I can’t imagine it was.
Vanderbilt led 7-0, led by 20 at halftime, and spent a staggering 30 minutes of the game ahead by double digits.
Vanderbilt, one of the smallest teams in college basketball, imposed its will on Kentucky all evening, outrebounding Kentucky 43-37, outscoring Kentucky in the paint, and forcing 15 Wildcats turnovers. Kentucky never led, and for all the Big Blue faithful griping about injuries this season, the loss came with Vanderbilt, not Kentucky, missing an elite player, as Duke Miles didn’t even suit up for the Commodores. Miles is available and expected to play on Saturday at Rupp Arena.
True to form, the Cats won 3 consecutive games after the defeat, including the season’s signature win at Bud Walton Arena.
But the Gators snapped that streak, leading the Cats wire to wire, and Kentucky hasn’t looked like the best version of itself since.
Will that change Saturday? Will Kentucky match the intensity and fire Vanderbilt brought to the first meeting? Will fatigue start to be a factor for a Kentucky team built to overwhelm folks with depth but now, thanks to injuries and inefficiencies, relying on leaders Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen to play nearly 40 minutes a game, with Collin Chandler inching ever closer to that level of indispensability?
Here’s a look at the Kalshi market for Kentucky-Vanderbilt on Saturday:
Vanderbilt, with its steady 8-9 man rotation and high tempo offense, will certainly put the pressure on Kentucky from an energy and rest standpoint.
How will Kentucky respond?
Tempo doesn’t bother Kentucky, who has stars in Aberdeen and Oweh who thrive in transition.
“Our best basketball is in transition,” Pope said this week. “We’re one of the elite transition offensive teams in the country. It’s where we shine.”
Can they earn enough opportunities against a Vanderbilt team that doesn’t turn the ball over (9th in America in KenPom turnover percentage at 13.3%) and dictates the pace of games by taking good shots and forcing turnovers?
The first game suggests the matchup is a poor one.
But the Arkansas film, where Kentucky simply outplayed the least-turnover-prone team in America by winning 50-50 balls, rebounding, and scoring off misses in transition, suggests otherwise.
Which Wildcats team shows up?
There’s winning DNA in this group.
Mo Dioubate has played in the Final Four. Denzel Aberdeen was a key reserve for a national champion. Otega Oweh was the star of a Kentucky team that proudly returned the program to the Sweet 16 a season ago.
No one has quit. No one has lost their fight.
At some point, though, it’s time to knock the grin off adversity’s face.
A Rupp rematch against a projected protected seed?
Great Kentucky squads lived for these Saturdays.
This Kentucky team simply needs to survive it.
Neil Blackmon covers SEC football and basketball for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
