What conference will produce the national champion? Prediction market analysis
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The NCAA Tournament field has been chopped from 64 to 16 over the past week.
With only 4 rounds left to go, it’s a good time to ask an emerging question: Which conference will produce this year’s national champion?
Over on Kalshi, this is a market users can make predictions on.
Predicting the 2026 national championship conference
Here’s a look at the current Kalshi market for this question:
There’s a simple way to attack this question: by adding up the championship equity for each remaining conference and comparing it to the Kalshi marketplace.
There are a few college basketball projection models that publish championship equity. Let’s first look at BartTorvik’s Tourney Time model.Â
Torvik’s model is pretty close to Kalshi’s market across the board. That system gives the Big Ten a 37.7% chance to win followed closely by the Big 12 at 35.9%. Next is the ACC at 17.4% (this is all Duke equity). The long-shots are the Big East at 5% and the SEC at 4.2%.
The only edge here would be to pick the Big 12 at 34 cents per contract on Kalshi, but even that is pretty marginal.
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EvanMiya’s tournament probabilities model has differing projections in a few key areas. Most notably, EvanMiya is significantly higher on Duke’s title chances. That model gives the Blue Devils a 22.3% chance to win it all while Torvik is at 17.4%.
The ACC only has one team left, but if you believe in Duke’s championship equity being north of 22%, there is a more meaningful edge on Kalshi for the ACC at the current market price of 19 cents per contract.
Here’s a look at the edge (compared to Kalshi’s prices) according to both models as well as a 50/50 blended approach. You can toggle between the 3 options:
| Conference | Kalshi Y / N | Model | Yes edge | No edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Ten | 39¢ / 63¢ | 37.7% | -1.3 | -0.7 |
| Big 12 | 34¢ / 67¢ | 35.9% | +1.9 | -2.9 |
| ACC | 19¢ / 83¢ | 17.4% | -1.6 | -0.4 |
| Big East | 7¢ / 95¢ | 5.0% | -2.0 | 0.0 |
| SEC | 5¢ / 96¢ | 4.2% | -0.8 | -0.2 |
| Conference | Kalshi Y / N | Model | Yes edge | No edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Ten | 39¢ / 63¢ | 38.6% | -0.4 | -1.6 |
| Big 12 | 34¢ / 67¢ | 34.6% | +0.6 | -1.6 |
| ACC | 19¢ / 83¢ | 19.9% | +0.9 | -2.9 |
| Big East | 7¢ / 95¢ | 4.7% | -2.3 | +0.3 |
| SEC | 5¢ / 96¢ | 2.4% | -2.6 | +1.6 |
| Conference | Kalshi Y / N | Model | Yes edge | No edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Ten | 39¢ / 63¢ | 39.5% | +0.5 | -1.5 |
| Big 12 | 34¢ / 67¢ | 33.3% | -0.7 | -0.3 |
| ACC | 19¢ / 83¢ | 22.3% | +3.3 | -5.3 |
| Big East | 7¢ / 95¢ | 4.4% | -2.6 | +0.6 |
| SEC | 5¢ / 96¢ | 0.6% | -4.4 | +3.4 |
Edge = model fair value − Kalshi price. Positive = underpriced (potential buy). Highlighted cells ≥ |2.0%|. Data: BartTorvik, EvanMiya. Sweet 16 field only.
Note: The Kalshi prices listed above are subject to volatility and do not necessarily reflect the current market.
Your mileage may vary on whether to trust EvanMiya’s respect for Duke or not. The Blue Devils are ranked No. 1 according to that model but they sit at No. 3 in BartTorvik’s efficiency rankings. Duke’s path to the title game was perhaps made easier with Florida’s early exit, although the extent to which that is true is reflected in both models.
The biggest difference between EvanMiya and BartTorvik seems to be that the latter model takes a much flatter approach to doling out championship equity. Torvik gives 7 different schools at least a 6% chance of cutting down the nets on the first Monday in April. EvanMiya says only 4 schools (Michigan, Duke, Arizona and Houston) clear that threshold.
Candidly, I prefer EvanMiya’s approach — these top-end rosters are undeniably elite and the idea that the remaining 1-seeds have a combined 70.9% chance to win the title passes the smell test for me. With that in mind, I like picking the ACC to win the national championship on Kalshi at 19 cents per contract.Â
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
