We have less than 2 weeks until Selection Sunday arrives and the field of 68 is set.
March Madness is upon us.
In the SEC, 6 teams have locked up their status as tournament teams. Below, you’ll find 5 more programs that have varying levels of uncertainty surrounding their quest for an at-large bid. Using the prediction market Kalshi as our guide, let’s look for some buy/sell opportunities on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Buying, selling which SEC bubble teams will make the Field of 68
Which of the SEC’s 5 bubble teams will actually make the field?
Let’s dive in.
Auburn Tigers
Overall record: 15-14
SEC record: 6-10
Quad 1 record: 5-11
It is, frankly, a little absurd that we are still talking about Auburn for an NCAA Tournament berth at this stage of the season. The Tigers are 15-14 with 2 games remaining in the regular season. KenPom projects a win over LSU when it visits on Tuesday, and a loss to Alabama on the road on Saturday. In that scenario, Auburn is 16-15 heading into the SEC Tournament, with a one-and-done showing in Nashville a very real possibility.
Auburn could win a game at the conference tourney. It has 5 Q1 wins already this season. Its ability to win big games is the only reason it is still being taken semi-seriously in the March Madness conversation. But a prolonged run in Nashville feels unlikely. Barring something unforeseen, Auburn will take a 17-16 record (or worse) into Selection Sunday.
According to Radar360 data, since the tournament expanded to 64 teams, only 2 Division I teams have received an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament after winning fewer than 54% of their regular-season games. Villanova did it in 1991 with a 16-14 record on Selection Sunday. Georgia did it a decade later with the same record heading into the tournament.
If Auburn splits its 2 remaining regular-season games and goes winless in Nashville, the Tigers have no chance at a bid. Safety probably requires 19 wins. That would require Auburn to win out and then win 2 games at the conference tournament, or make a minimum run to the SEC semifinals. Based on the current SEC standings, BartTorvik would give Auburn a 20.7% chance to make the quarters and a 6.8% chance to make the semis.
Auburn’s argument is that it has played the nation’s toughest schedule, and it should be rewarded for its conviction. But Auburn’s schedule also means it has had ample opportunity to produce more wins, and its 5 Q1 victories aren’t even the most among this 5-squad bubble group. It has bad losses, including by 12 to Oklahoma and by 6 at home to an Ole Miss team that was riding a 10-game losing streak.
Kalshi gives Auburn just a 28% chance to make the NCAA Tournament. Auburn to miss the field is carrying a 98-cent-per-contract price on the prediction marketplace at the moment. If you’ve been holding a “no” contract, props to you; sell. The Tigers have lost 7 of 8, showing no signs they can suddenly reverse course and string together 4-plus victories over the next 2 weeks.
Verdict: Fade Auburn as a tournament team, sell “no” contracts on Kalshi
Georgia Bulldogs
Overall record: 20-9
SEC record: 8-8
Quad 1 record: 5-7
Georgia smashed South Carolina on Saturday for a third win in 4 games. The only loss during that stretch was an 8-point defeat at Vanderbilt. The 5-in-6 losing spell that Georgia endured throughout late January and early February looks to be firmly behind the Dawgs. Since Feb. 17, they have a road win at Kentucky and an 11-point home win over fellow bubble-dweller Texas.
Georgia appears in 94 of 94 brackets at Bracket Matrix. It has a WAB rating that ranks 35th nationally — ahead of 3 other SEC teams listed in this column. BartTorvik projects a 99.5% likelihood that Georgia makes it into the NCAA Tournament.
BartTorvik also gives Georgia better than a 1-in-3 chance to advance to the quarters of the SEC Tournament (based on current standings) and an 11% chance to reach the semis. The Dawgs still have a home game against Alabama in the regular season, and they’ve given Stegeman Coliseum visitors fits all season.
Georgia seems to be safe at the moment. Though Kalshi gives Georgia just an 83% chance to make the field, that contract is currently priced at 93 cents per.
Verdict: Georgia is safe
Missouri Tigers
Overall record: 20-9
SEC record: 10-6
Quad 1 record: 5-5
Mizzou has won 6 of 8. After letting slip a crucial game at home against Texas and then flunking the road test at Arkansas a week later, the Tigers looked in need of some refocusing. Then they beat Tennessee by 4 at home and waxed Mississippi State on the road. A road game at Oklahoma and a home tilt with Arkansas are all that remain on the regular-season ledger. Mizzou should hit 21 wins before the conference tournament begins. Beating Oklahoma would fetch a Q1 victory for Mizzou. (Beating Arkansas would as well, of course.)
As things stand, a team like Auburn (or a pundit like Bruce Pearl), can point to the equal Q1 victories and say schedules aren’t equal. But Mizzou has 20 wins with a clean path to more. Mizzou also has a WAB rating that ranks 33rd nationally, the highest of any SEC bubble team. If the SEC is a 10-bid league rather than an 11-bid league, Auburn does not want to be compared to Mizzou. The Tigers from Columbia have a top-60 strength of schedule, according to KenPom, and a better record. The schedules aren’t equal, but neither are the wins.
Let’s say, just for the sake of argument, Mizzou loses out. The Tigers drop games to Oklahoma and Alabama, then go one-and-done in Nashville. They still have 5 Q1 wins, they still have 10 SEC victories, and they still cleared the 20-win threshold. I don’t believe Mizzou will lose out, so I feel there’s some safety here.
Like Georgia above, Mizzou appears in 94 of 94 projected brackets tracked at Bracket Matrix, and BartTorvik gives the Tigers a 95.8% chance to make the field. Kalshi doesn’t offer much value on a “yes” contract for Mizzou to qualify for the tournament — 92% chance, 93 cents per contract — but the Tigers have surged from where they were 2 weeks ago. In the afternoon hours of Monday, Feb. 16, Mizzou to make the field traded for 40 cents per contract. If you snapped that number up then, turning that around now would fetch a nice return. Or you could hold for a few extra cents when Mizzou reaches “lock” status.
Verdict: Mizzou is safe
Texas Longhorns
Overall record: 18-11
SEC record: 9-7
Quad 1 record: 6-8
Texas is another hold for me. The Longhorns have more Quad 1 wins than Tennessee and as many as both Arkansas and Kentucky. All 3 of those schools are considered locks to make the tournament. Texas still has a road game at Arkansas to add to its résumé and whatever comes from the SEC Tournament.
The Longhorns won 5 in a row, then lost back-to-back against Georgia and Florida, then beat Texas A&M in College Station to pick up a huge victory. In “have to have it” road games against Mizzou and A&M over the last 2 weeks, Texas has risen to the occasion. They’re given a 93.4% chance to make the tournament, according to BartTorvik.
Verdict: Texas is safe
Texas A&M Aggies
Overall record: 19-10
SEC record: 9-7
Quad 1 record: 4-6
The Aggies are a team I’m targeting to miss the Tournament. A contract on Kalshi sells for 32 cents per, at the time of publication. Texas A&M has lost 6 of its last 8 games — all of them to tournament teams — and still has to face Kentucky in the regular season. KenPom projects only a 1-point win over LSU on the road on March 7, so that seems far from a gimme. Based on the current SEC standings, A&M would get South Carolina in the first round of the SEC Tournament before facing Vanderbilt. The Aggies lost their only meeting with the Commodores by 13 points.
A&M has the 60th-ranked schedule, according to KenPom. Every other SEC bubble team — including Auburn — has more Quad 1 wins. A&M ranks 44th in WAB, with Auburn the only bubble team worse off. There are holes to pick at with this résumé, and if A&M limps into Selection Sunday, you bet the selection committee will pick away.
In a column on Feb. 18, I poured some cold water on A&M and wrote that the Aggies have “make-or-break games” against Arkansas (Feb. 25), Texas (Feb. 28), and Kentucky (March 3). So far, they are 0-2 in those games. A loss to Kentucky would be damaging. A loss at LSU might even be lethal.
After the Aggies beat Georgia on Jan. 31, the notion that they might miss the NCAA Tournament was unthinkable. While it still seems more likely than not the Aggies eventually grab an at-large berth — BartTorvik gives A&M an 88.6% chance to get in — there’s enough doubt here that it’s worth getting in on some of the action Kalshi is offering before more losses hit the ledger.
In A&M’s road win over Oklahoma on Feb. 21, the Aggies held a second-half lead for all but 9 seconds of the game. In the other 7 games the Aggies have played since the start of February, Texas A&M has held a second-half lead for 19:50 of a possible 140 minutes. The arrow is pointing down for this group right now.
Verdict: Fade Texas A&M, buy “no” contracts on Kalshi
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
