Why Florida-Alabama matters so much to this year’s NCAA Tournament
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Of course, when the 2025 NCAA Tournament began, no one doubted that the top seed from the West would be able to go on and win a national championship. Florida was coming off a run at the SEC Tournament that featured consecutive victories over top-21 squads. When the Gators beat Houston 65-63 to cut down the nets, it was their 12th consecutive victory.
But if you rewound the clock a little over a month, back to Feb. 1, 2025, you would have been standing inside Thompson-Boling Arena wondering if Todd Golden’s group could make it to the Sweet 16, let alone the Final Four.
That afternoon, Tennessee hammered the Gators. The Vols suffocated Golden’s offense. Walter Clayton Jr. scored 10 points on 13 shots. Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh combined to shoot 2-for-12. Florida scored 44 points with an effective field goal percentage of 28.3%.
Within 9 weeks, those same Gators would lift a national championship. Point being, we have a long way to go this season.
And yet Sunday’s game between Florida and Alabama in Gainesville — exactly 1 year to the date of that Tennessee takedown — feels highly instructive.
It feels informative.
It feels influential.
Here come the Gators, who have 6 losses in 22 games this season, but who also have a championship pedigree and a frontcourt that can bully anyone.
In the 95-48 win over South Carolina — not a typo; that was the actual score — on Jan. 28, the Florida frontcourt trio of Condon, Haugh, and Rueben Chinyelu combined to score 42 points with 23 rebounds, 10 assists, 5 blocks, and 3 made triples.
In a 100-77 win over Alabama on Feb. 1, that same trio produced 61 points with 29 rebounds, 10 assists, 4 steals, 5 blocks, and 2 made 3s.
One year after Golden’s Florida squad crashed into its floor, the Gators showcased that their ceiling is still very much that of a championship team. On the prediction marketplace, Kalshi, Florida is the overwhelming favorite to win the SEC regular-season title, but the Gators have just a 6% chance to win the national championship.
Those weary of the Gators will point to their shooting. Florida shoots it well from the corners and converts a high percentage of its looks right around the basket. Everywhere else is a struggle. Per Hoop-Explorer, Florida shoots under 30% from the wings and the top of the key.
Last season’s run was built around elite shot-making from Clayton. This year’s starting backcourt is on the other end of the spectrum; Boogie Fland shoots 19% while Xaivian Lee is shooting 26% from 3.
My colleague, Spenser Davis, pointed out in a recent piece that Lee and Fland are both under 0.8 points per possession on pull-up jumpers and catch-and-shoot 3s. That’s a legitimate weakness.
Haugh’s development — and continued run of form — is so important here. Condon’s usage and production are up slightly year-over-year. Though his outside shot has grown cold, he’s averaging more assists — 5 per 40 minutes — than ever before. And Chinyelu has become a reliable force on both ends. But Haugh is the team’s leading scorer at almost 18 a game.
In his first 19 games of the season, he had 3 made 3s in a game just 3 total times. He has 8 made triples in his last 3 games, twice canning a trio of triples.
For the season, lineups with Haugh, Condon, and Chinyelu on the floor have a 114.1 offensive rating, which is pretty average. Florida needs him to keep shooting it and catch a hot streak. The Gators might be a threat to bow out of the tournament early if their offense runs aground, but few teams — especially lower seeds from lower leagues — have the girth to deal with this frontcourt if they hit enough.
Florida doesn’t need to be a great shooting team. It needs to hit enough. Florida, which has the 13th tallest roster in the sport, is up to seventh in the country in KenPom. It is the only team in the SEC with a top-15 offense and defense. It is 1 of just 3 Division I teams with 3 players inside the Top 40 in EvanMiya’s player rater.
This is still a title team. The lack of shooting makes them a riskier back, but it also makes the reward a little juicier.
One more point of order on the Alabama result: The Gators got 57% of their shot attempts around the basket and shot 69% on those attempts. That Florida did its damage inside wasn’t a surprise. What was a stunner was how the Gators managed to do so. Cuts and transition opportunities destroyed the interior of Alabama’s defense, which gave up 72 paint points and 15 offensive rebounds.
Turnovers were the chaos agent. Alabama had 18 of them. Florida scored 25 points off those turnovers. Much like the defending NBA champions fuel their at-times-shaky offense with legitimate runs by their defense, the Gators showed they can fuel this challenged offense by their defense.
Florida made only 3 triples and scored 100 points in a college basketball game in 2026. Alabama ranks eighth nationally in turnover rate, per KenPom. The Crimson Tide rarely give the basketball away, with fewer than 10 turnovers in 11 of their 21 games.
Florida made Labaron Philon and Aden Holloway (8 combined) feel the heat. In doing so, it broke its own tendency (204th in forced steal rate) and Alabama’s. If that’s more of a repeatable strategy from this group, rather than an isolated product of the moment, Golden will head into March with a high degree of confidence.
Florida has won 11 of its last 13 games. During that stretch, the Gators have scored 90 points or more 9 times. During the 5-4 start, UF cleared 90 points only twice.
Florida is finding its form again. Beware.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
