It’s almost time for the true Madness begin.
Ahead of tipoff of Round 1 on Thursday, I will be examining a variety of Kalshi props related to the NCAA Tournament.
Today’s topic: Will any player have a 40+ point scoring game at the NCAA Tournament?
It’s worth noting that this market does include the play-in games that are happening in Dayton on Tuesday and Wednesday.
I’ll also note that Kalshi has similar props up for scoring 30+, 35+, 45+ or 50+ points in a game as well. This story will only focus on 40+ point scoring games, but please feel free to explore the other offerings.
How are we going to tackle this? First, some data from our friends at Radar360. Here’s the frequency of 40+ point games in the regular season and NCAA Tournament in every year dating back to 2000:
| Season | Reg Season Games |
40+ Pt Games |
Rate | Tourney Games |
40+ Pt Games |
Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5,895 | 34 | 0.58% | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| 2024-25 | 5,869 | 28 | 0.48% | 67 | 0 | 0% |
| 2023-24 | 5,821 | 20 | 0.34% | 67 | 2 | 2.99% |
| 2022-23 | 5,804 | 39 | 0.67% | 67 | 0 | 0% |
| 2021-22 | 5,536 | 23 | 0.42% | 67 | 0 | 0% |
| 2020-21 | 3,919 | 11 | 0.28% | 66 | 0 | 0% |
| 2019-20 | 5,608 | 31 | 0.55% | Cancelled (COVID) | ||
| 2018-19 | 5,616 | 50 | 0.89% | 67 | 2 | 2.99% |
| 2017-18 | 5,571 | 41 | 0.74% | 67 | 0 | 0% |
| 2016-17 | 5,540 | 40 | 0.72% | 67 | 0 | 0% |
| 2015-16 | 5,515 | 26 | 0.47% | 67 | 0 | 0% |
| 2014-15 | 5,505 | 13 | 0.24% | 67 | 0 | 0% |
| 2013-14 | 5,515 | 21 | 0.38% | 67 | 1 | 1.49% |
| 2012-13 | 5,397 | 17 | 0.31% | 67 | 0 | 0% |
| 2011-12 | 5,339 | 16 | 0.30% | 67 | 0 | 0% |
| 2010-11 | 5,338 | 22 | 0.41% | 67 | 0 | 0% |
| 2009-10 | 5,361 | 16 | 0.30% | 64 | 0 | 0% |
| 2008-09 | 5,265 | 30 | 0.57% | 64 | 0 | 0% |
| 2007-08 | 5,216 | 27 | 0.52% | 64 | 1 | 1.56% |
| 2006-07 | 5,120 | 26 | 0.51% | 64 | 0 | 0% |
| 2005-06 | 4,804 | 28 | 0.58% | 64 | 0 | 0% |
| 2004-05 | 4,734 | 10 | 0.21% | 64 | 0 | 0% |
| 2003-04 | 4,630 | 20 | 0.43% | 64 | 1 | 1.56% |
| 2002-03 | 4,623 | 40 | 0.87% | 64 | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 127,541 | 629 | 0.49% | 1,449 | 7 | 0.48% |
2019-20 tournament cancelled due to COVID (regular season data included). Highlighted rows indicate seasons with a 40+ point tournament game. Tournament includes First Four beginning in 2011. Data via Radar360.
In total, 40-point games have happened in 5 of the last 22 NCAA Tournaments, good for just under 23%. Remarkably, 40-point outbursts are extremely stable across the regular season and NCAA Tournament (0.49% in the regular season and 0.48% in the Big Dance).
Let’s talk about this on a player level now. Who are the candidates to pull off a 40-point game?
RELATED: Will a 15-seed or 16-seed win a Round of 64 game?
As you might expect, regular season scoring is a pretty good indicator for this prop. Historically, all 7 of our 40-point NCAA Tournament scorers (since 2002-03) had at least 1 game with 33+ points in the regular season. Of those 7 players, 4 of them had at least 3 games with 33+ points.
Here’s a look at the list of players in this year’s NCAA Tournament with at least 1 33+ point game sorted by the number of times they achieved that feat in the regular season:
| Player | Team | Games 33+ |
Season High |
|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dybantsa | BYU | 6 | 43 |
| Dominique Daniels Jr. | California Baptist | 2 | 47 |
| Keaton Wagler | Illinois | 2 | 46 |
| Dontae Horne | Prairie View A&M | 2 | 46 |
| Bruce Thornton | Ohio State | 2 | 38 |
| Tyler Tanner | Vanderbilt | 2 | 37 |
| Cruz Davis | Hofstra | 2 | 36 |
| Graham Ike | Gonzaga | 2 | 35 |
| Cameron Boozer | Duke | 2 | 35 |
| Nasir Whitlock | Lehigh | 2 | 33 |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | Arkansas | 1 | 49 |
| Paul McNeil Jr. | NC State | 1 | 47 |
| Mikel Brown Jr. | Louisville | 1 | 45 |
| Kingston Flemings | Houston | 1 | 42 |
| MJ Collins Jr. | Utah State | 1 | 40 |
| Robert Wright III | BYU | 1 | 39 |
| TJ Power | Penn | 1 | 38 |
| Braden Huff | Gonzaga | 1 | 37 |
| Sash Gavalyugov | Santa Clara | 1 | 37 |
| Melvin Council Jr. | Kansas | 1 | 36 |
| Wes Enis | South Florida | 1 | 36 |
| LeJuan Watts | Texas Tech | 1 | 36 |
| Bennett Stirtz | Iowa | 1 | 36 |
| JT Toppin | Texas Tech | 1 | 35 |
| Labaron Philon Jr. | Alabama | 1 | 35 |
Data via Radar360.
AJ Dybantsa sticks out like a No. 1 overall pick here. He has a whopping 6 games with 33+ points while playing in one of the nation’s top conferences. He also has a high-usage teammate in Robert Wright Jr., who makes this list with a season high of 39 points.
Dybantsa is by far the most dangerous option in the field — regardless of which side of the prop you’re on. He’s scored 40+ points twice and is averaging over 25 points per game. However, he may only play in 1 or 2 tournament games as a No. 6 seed, which does limit some of your exposure if you like the “no” side of this prop.
However, Dybantsa’s 40-point outings have come against Utah and Kansas State. Both of those teams are ranked outside of the top-100 in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom and are far from NCAA Tournament quality opposition.
BYU will face either NC State or Texas in the Round of 64. Neither of those teams are particularly strong on defense either. But if the Cougars advance, they’d likely see a top-10 Gonzaga defense in the Round of 32. He’d likely only have one shot to score 40+ against another high-major defense before running into one of the best defensive teams in the nation. That doesn’t seem particularly promising to me.
Of course, it’s not just Dybantsa we should consider. There’s a pool of 25 players with a 33+ point game this season who history says has a chance to get 40. But I view Dybantsa as the most likely candidate to get this done (by far) and yet he still seems like a long shot given the circumstances.
For an event that only happens once every 208 games or so, I’ll take the “no” side of this prop at the current price of 69 cents per contract on Kalshi.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
