Will Florida be a No. 1 seed? Here’s what prediction markets are saying
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Entering the weekend, 3 of the 4 available No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament were essentially secured by Michigan, Duke and Arizona.
Florida was hoping to secure the final spot on the top line. But the Gators had a disappointing exit from the SEC Tournament, losing in the semifinals on Saturday to Vanderbilt. That left the door open for Houston or UConn to take the final No. 1 seed.
However, as of Sunday morning, the Gators are now a big favorite to claim a No. 1 seed alongside the Wolverines, Blue Devils and Wildcats when the selection committee’s official bracket is announced later in the day.
Will Florida be a No. 1 seed?
Prediction markets like Kalshi have posted odds on which teams will earn a No. 1 seed. On Kalshi, Michigan, Duke and Arizona have long been locks for the top line. Florida is nearing that territory as well thanks to UConn’s blowout loss to St. John’s on Saturday night. Here’s what Kalshi’s No. 1 seed market currently looks like:
Florida has pulled ahead of UConn and Houston in recent days for the final No. 1 seed. The Gators are ranked No. 4 in the latest NET update and have 12 Quad 1 wins on the year. UConn lost to Marquette in its regular-season finale, which was a significant blow to its No. 1 seed case. Houston lost to Arizona in the Big 12 Tournament final on Saturday.
BartTorvik’s TourneyCast model also has Florida as the favorite to get the final No. 1 seed, but it’s not nearly as confident as the Kalshi marketplace. Torvik’s model gives the Gators a 42.7% chance to earn a No. 1 seed with Houston (28.2%) not far behind.
The bracket will be officially revealed at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday evening.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
