Ad Disclosure
We haven’t backed down all year, and with bowl season in full swing, it’s time to get bold — Playoff bold.
Here are 10 predictions for Georgia-Oklahoma and Alabama-Clemson. We’re forsaking a little of the crazy (no calls for 50-point blowouts), but replacing it by going VERY specific. Calling for close games may not seem bold, but how about forecasting specific big plays and players? Some would say crazy, we say it’s bold. Here goes:
1. Georgia will put up some points — over 30
The Sooners were 50th in the FBS in scoring defense and 88th in yardage allowed. Granted, they gave up a bunch of passing yards because they played from ahead by big margins. But the OU defense is the weakest unit in this game.
The Sooners gave up 144 rushing yards per game (over 31 more than UGA) and opposing offenses passed for 7.48 yards per attempt against OU (UGA allowed just 5.58). OU allowed 31+ points five times this season. They’ll do it a sixth time on Monday.
2. OU will run to set up the pass — but not very well
People see Baker Mayfield throw for a bajillion yards and they forget that OU still runs more than it passes — in fact, only once all year (vs. Kansas State) did Oklahoma have more pass attempts than rushes. That said, only once all year did Georgia allow 5 yards per carry — and that was 5.2 by Auburn.
The Sooners for their part amassed a bunch of rushing yards against bad defenses, but didn’t exactly crush Ohio State or TCU on the ground. Look for them to run 40 times for about 135 yards.
3. Sony Michel is the MVP
So many times in his career at UGA, Michel has watched Nick Chubb grind out the tough yards and soften up the opposing front, and then he’s exploded through a tired defense. While many fixate on UGA not seeing a passer like Mayfield, Oklahoma hasn’t seen a two-headed monster like Chubb and Michel. Michel will rack up 90ish yards on about 10 carries, with a big-play touchdown or two.
4. The game’s best defensive player is Roquan Smith
Somehow, Smith slips under the national radar, but all he does is whatever Georgia needs him to do. He’s fast enough to drop in coverage, tough enough to stop the run, and at some point Monday night, he’ll create a crucial turnover that might turn the game.
5. OU leads at the half, but UGA rallies to win by two scores
Oklahoma is the wildcard of these four teams. The Sooners played Ohio State in week two but otherwise haven’t seen a ton of great competition. Lincoln Riley has never coached in a game this big. They’ll have some good stuff drawn up early, but SEC football wears down Big 12 football late. UGA by something like 38-24.
6. After two shootouts, in Clemson-Bama III, defenses rule
Deshaun Watson isn’t walking into the stadium Monday night. And shootouts are best left to the Wild West. The number one and number two scoring defenses in the FBS aren’t going to get left behind this year. This game will be a grinder. If you want to bet, take the under.
7. Jalen Hurts’s rushing game is the difference
Neither team’s passing game is elite, and both are physical and stout on the ground, but that essentially neutralizes.
The difference is that while Kelly Bryant is a capable dual threat, Jalen Hurts is an elite dual threat. Sometime in the third quarter on a third-down-and-medium play, Hurts will break contain and make one of those plays that only he makes. That might make the difference in this one.
8. Alabama has to contain the pass rush — and will
The Tide aren’t going to pass the ball a ton, but they’ve got to keep Hurts secure enough to not get gashed in the turnover battle. Clemson’s pass rush is legitimate (ask Auburn), and whether it’s the use of the screen game or a lot of help from backs and tight ends, Alabama has to keep Hurts from getting sacked more than a couple of times. The smart money says it does.
9. Levi Wallace is good for a big play
Everybody knows how good Minkah Fitzpatrick is. But when Bryant forgets about Levi Wallace, don’t be surprised to see him make a game-changing (or lead-preserving) interception.
10. Your unlikely hero? Andy Pappanastos
Again, this game isn’t going to be shootout. Alabama’s biggest advantage might be the kicking game, which will seem odd to people who have seen them struggle at times. But Clemson has its own issues, and Pappanastos is the guy who makes the big kick and sends Bama on to a 17-14 win.
11. An all-SEC final?
That would be an 11th bold prediction. But what the heck.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
