Rivalry week is finally here.
With Week 13 in the books, it’s time to break down our final datapoints before the last week of the regular season. Last week in this piece, we talked about Georgia Tech’s shortcomings, the Arkansas coaching search and Virginia’s ACC hopes, among other topics.
10 college football ideas I’m buying or selling
Let’s dive in.
Buying: Deuce Knight should start the Iron Bowl
Auburn let true freshman Deuce Knight start in Week 13 against Mercer as a way of preserving a redshirt season for Ashton Daniels. Unfortunately for Daniels, Knight lit it up against Mercer — he rushed for a 75-yard touchdown on the game’s opening play and ended up with 6 total touchdowns in Auburn’s 62-17 win.
Knight arrived at Auburn as a 5-star recruit in the class of 2025. We’ll see what happens with the new coaching staff, but it stands to reason that Auburn should be doing everything it can to get reps for Knight, who is presumably the future of the program at quarterback. That means starting Knight in the Iron Bowl on Saturday against Alabama.
However…
Selling: The Iron Bowl will be close
Although I’m intrigued by the emergence of Deuce Knight, I don’t expect the Iron Bowl to be particularly close. I was surprised to see Alabama open as a favorite of well under a touchdown even on the road. Alabama’s offense has struggled over the last few weeks, but looked much better against Oklahoma (aside from 3 back-breaking turnovers). The Crimson Tide still have a statistical profile that suggests they’re SEC title contenders entering Week 14.
Auburn is nowhere close to that level. As an example, Alabama ranks No. 10 nationally in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted net EPA-per-play metric; Auburn is 43rd. I think Alabama is clearly the better team and that’s not factoring in the fact that Auburn has found every possible way to lose games this season. Turnovers, penalties and other unforced errors have been huge issues all season long. I think Alabama wins by well over a touchdown.
Pick: Alabama -5.5 (-109 on Caesars)
Buying: The Heisman Trophy is still up for grabs
With Julian Sayin having a quiet Week 13 game against Rutgers, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza has taken firm control of the Heisman Trophy race. Sayin is the odds-on favorite at most sports betting apps and is priced at well over 50 cents a contract on prediction markets like Kalshi.
I’m surprised to see such a strong show of support for Mendoza with so much football still to be played. Particularly since Ohio State and Indiana are likely to meet in the Big Ten Championship Game when Heisman Trophy ballots won’t yet be due. The Heisman voter pool tends to have the memory of a goldfish — the most-recent development will always have more weight. I have a hard time seeing Mendoza win the Heisman if Ohio State wins the Big Ten title game. By all accounts, Ohio State will be favored against the Hoosiers — so why is Mendoza the Heisman frontrunner anyways?
Selling: Jeremiyah Love can win the Heisman
Let’s hit one more Heisman note. Jeremiyah Love had a massive game on Saturday against Syracuse, which vaulted him close to Sayin in the Heisman Trophy betting odds. The problem with Love’s case is Notre Dame’s 2 early-season losses combined with a lack of conference championship game. Love has one game left and it will come against Stanford this weekend. There’s just not much room left for Love to make a massive statement. Even Diego Pavia, who is running in fourth entering Week 14, has a bigger stage this week. Sayin and Mendoza certainly do, too. I don’t see a path to Love winning the narrative battle despite his fantastic season.
Pick: Jeremiyah Love to NOT win the Heisman (85 cents per contract on Kalshi)
Here’s where the Heisman race currently stands on Kalshi:
Buying: Vanderbilt is underrated by the CFP committee
Vanderbilt is now 9-2 on the season after blowing out Kentucky on Saturday. The Commodores look like they’ll miss out on a CFP berth even if they upset Tennessee on Saturday, but I’m not so sure that should be the case. There’s legitimate statistical evidence that suggests Vanderbilt has a case as a top-10 team.
The Commodores rank 14th in schedule-adjusted net EPA-per-play on Game on Paper, but they’re 9th among teams with a legitimate CFP case. Vandy is 13th in SP+ and 17th in FPI, but is much stronger from a résumé standpoint. Vanderbilt’s strength-of-record, per FPI, ranks 11th nationally. If Vandy beats Tennessee, it would end the year with 10 wins against a top-25 strength-of-schedule.
And yet, as of Week 13, the Commodores rank 14th according to the selection committee behind other less-qualified teams such as BYU, Utah and Miami. It’s difficult to find a path for Vandy to get into the top-10 even with a win over Tennessee. Vanderbilt would need to jump that aforementioned trio of teams and hope for a Week 14 loss from Alabama, Oklahoma or Notre Dame. It’s not impossible, but the path is bleaker than I think Vandy deserves.
Selling: Georgia will blow out Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech has really struggled in November and fell into a 28-0 hole against Pittsburgh on Saturday before falling short in what was an admirable comeback attempt. The Yellow Jackets have slipped to 56th in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play metric this season. Despite Georgia Tech’s struggles in November, I’m still a buyer going into this Week 14 rivalry game.
Georgia is also a bit overrated at 10-1. The Bulldogs rank 20th in that same EPA-per-play metric — better than Georgia Tech, but not nearly as good as they’re perceived to be nationally. Brent Key has talked over and over again about how much the Georgia rivalry means to him. The last 2 games in this series have been very close — they were both Georgia wins decided by a combined 10 points. I think Georgia Tech will keep this within the number.
Pick: Georgia Tech +13.5 (-110 on DraftKings)
Buying: There are still reasons to be optimistic about Florida State‘s future
Florida State coach Mike Norvell is returning for another season in 2026, the program announced on Sunday. It’s been a brutal 2 seasons for the Noles since they lost Jordan Travis to a season-ending injury in November of 2023. FSU would have been well within its right to fire Norvell after how the last 2 years have gone, but is deciding to give him one more chance.
Is it a good decision to bring back Norvell? I think that depends on what happens next. If FSU is going to invest in the program the same way that Wisconsin and Maryland have, for example, this has a chance to work out. Norvell is a good coach — you don’t go 13-0 by accident. If the Noles are just running out the clock on Norvell’s guaranteed money and don’t plan to make any broader organizational changes, it seems likely Florida State will end up in a very similar spot in 2026. Perhaps the advantage in that case would be FSU could have the best-available job next cycle as opposed to the stiff competition it would face for coaches this offseason.
The good news is Florida State’s offense is good. The Noles rank 16th in yards per play entering Week 14. It’s important to keep Gus Malzahn and find a new quarterback this offseason, but I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility of FSU pushing for ACC contention next season.
Selling: Cal will do better than Justin Wilcox
Cal decided to fire Justin Wilcox on Saturday night after almost 9 years in charge. Notably, it was general manager (and former NFL coach) Ron Rivera who made the decision, according to the school’s press release. Wilcox hasn’t been lighting the world on fire at Cal, but he’s a really good coach and Cal is a really tough power-conference job. Cal could still make a bowl game this season, which would mean 3 straight postseason appearances. The last Cal coach to do that was Jeff Tedford, who had Aaron Rodgers and Marshawn Lynch during that run. It’s a different era.
In addition to Cal’s rigorous academic standards and questionable athletics funding, this job was made even tougher with the move to the ACC. The recruiting footprint is awkward and the travel is difficult. Maybe Rivera has an idea of who he wants to hire, but I’m highly skeptical the next coach will do better than Wilcox did.
Buying: This is Ohio State’s year … Sort of
I think this is the year Ryan Day finally puts away Michigan in The Game. The Wolverines have won 4 in a row in this series, including an improbable victory in Columbus last season that proved to be just a speed bump for the Buckeyes en route to another national title. However, I don’t think this is a blowout by any means. Michigan’s defense has been solid all season, particularly at home. It’s been over 6 weeks since the Wolverines allowed a team to throw for 7 yards per attempt in a game. With this line over 10 points, I have to take the home team to cover — but I do think the Buckeyes ultimately prevail.
Pick: Michigan +10.5 (-112 on DraftKings)
Selling: Lincoln Riley will definitely be back at USC next year
USC lost its third game of the season on Saturday, falling to Oregon in decisive fashion. I liked the Trojans going into that game but watching it, it never felt like the Trojans had a chance to win. USC has been improved this season and could win 9 games during the regular season for the first time since Lincoln Riley’s first year in charge. I don’t think the last 4 years have gone the way Riley envisioned when he left Oklahoma for what he called the “mecca of college football.”
Perhaps Riley sees hope in a 2026 recruiting high school class that currently has 35 players. But I wouldn’t be stunned if he gets involved with LSU or Florida, should either or both of those programs whiff on Lane Kiffin. Riley was reportedly in the mix for the LSU job when Scott Woodward hired Brian Kelly 4 years ago. Maybe he’d entertain a move again? A move to the NFL is also a possibility with Riley in my opinion. On Kalshi, Riley to Florida is priced at 5 cents per contract — that’s a long-shot that I think is worth a sprinkle.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
