Week 8 of the college football season has come and gone.
As always, this piece will seek to identify some value in the betting markets by picking apart some of the popular narratives that have formed after the previous week’s slate of games in college football.
10 ideas to buy or sell after Week 8
Let’s break down 10 college football ideas following Week 8:
Buying: Georgia is the best second-half team in the country
Much has been made about Georgia’s slow starts, but the Bulldogs have, quite loudly, become the nation’s best second-half team. That’s never been more apparent than on Saturday when UGA completely shut down an Ole Miss offense that had scored touchdowns on each of its first 5 possessions of the night.
For the season, Georgia has a +20 point differential in the second half against ranked opponents. That’s the best second-half point differential nationally among teams who have played at least 3 ranked opponents. UGA has been a bit fortunate over that time — it has been out-gained on a yards-per-play basis across the second half of those 3 games and opponents are just 1-for-3 on field goals. But it’s clear that Georgia is finding ways to win games. In an SEC where the average scoring margin is just 10 points (by far the lowest this century), that might be an intangible worth betting on.
Selling: Lane Kiffin should leave Ole Miss for Florida
In today’s college football landscape, everything that influences a program’s success can be boiled down into 1 of 2 things: Resources and stability. “Resources” are relatively self-explanatory. Stability is something that isn’t talked about enough with regards to preferring one college football job over another. A program with good stability has competent leadership at the presidential level as well as in the athletic department. Its boosters are kept in line. Facility upgrades get funded and completed. Recruiting efforts are optimized and meticulously planned. The list goes on.
I’m not saying Florida doesn’t have stability or can’t have stability. I’m not in the building and I won’t pretend to know anyone who is. But here’s what I know: Florida hasn’t made a successful coaching hire in over 20 years. For context, the iPhone was barely an idea in Steve Jobs’s mind when Florida hired Urban Meyer away from Utah at the end of the 2004 season. Since then: 4 head coaches (and soon-to-be 4 interims) who have a collective .559 winning percentage in SEC play over a whopping 15 seasons.
If I’m Lane Kiffin, I’m not leaving Ole Miss for that. The resources are clearly there for Ole Miss to compete at this level. All indications are that Ole Miss will provide whatever is needed for Kiffin to continue to compete for College Football Playoff berths in Oxford. It’s also clear that Kiffin has the necessary stability to continue building a consistent winner at Ole Miss. Maybe all that would exist in Gainesville, too — but it’s been a long time since we’ve seen proof.
Buying: Vanderbilt’s offense can take the Commodores to the CFP
After Saturday’s win over LSU, I think it’s clear this Vanderbilt team could make the College Football Playoff. The Commodores are ranked in the top-10 and have several potential statements left to make before the end of the season, starting this weekend with Mizzou. Vandy is favored against the Tigers, and for good reason I think — Eli Drinkwitz’s team didn’t play all that well in its first road game of the year last week against Auburn. This is also a pretty good matchup for Vandy, as its weakness is pass defense but Mizzou doesn’t have much of a downfield passing attack to speak of.
This Vanderbilt offense is elite. It ranks No. 4 in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play metric behind Navy, Arkansas and USC. The Commodores are 7th in yards per play. I think Vandy beats Mizzou this weekend and then goes to Austin and upsets the Longhorns in a couple weeks. Even if Vanderbilt only splits those games, it should still have a chance to finish 10-2 if it can beat Tennessee in Week 14. At 10-2, Vanderbilt is a lock for the Playoff. At 9-3, I think it’s still on the table. Regardless, I’m much higher on Vandy’s CFP hopes than the betting markets appear to be.
Pick: Vanderbilt to make the College Football Playoff (+400 on BetMGM)
Selling: Texas can make the College Football Playoff
After Saturday’s overtime win against Kentucky, it’s clear this Texas team is too flawed. UT was beyond fortunate to get the win at all — Bill Connelly’s postgame win expectancy metric gave the Longhorns just a 16.1% chance to beat Kentucky based on box score data. Arch Manning had one of his worst games of the season — which is really saying something — as he threw for just 132 yards on 27 attempts.
Another loss would certainly eliminate the Longhorns from making the College Football Playoff. There may be some 9-3 teams who contend for a spot in the 12-team field, but Texas won’t be one of them. Texas only has 1 quality win so far this season (against Oklahoma) and still has tough tests remaining vs. Vanderbilt, Georgia and Texas A&M. If the Longhorns run the table, more power to them. I don’t think this team is anywhere near good enough to do so.
Pick: Texas to miss the College Football Playoff (-150 on BetMGM)
Buying: Miami will still win the ACC
Miami lost to Louisville in embarrassing fashion on Friday night, but I’m still backing the Canes to reach the ACC Championship Game. This is just what Miami does under Mario Cristobal — it underestimates opponents and loses to teams it shouldn’t. It’s happened over and over again. Carson Beck may need to do some damage control in the locker room, but I think he’ll bounce back and have better games moving forward.
I’m not a huge buyer in Georgia Tech or Virginia as legitimate contenders against Miami for the ACC crown. There are scenarios where the Canes could miss the ACC Championship Game with an 11-1 record, but I consider those outcomes to be pretty remote at this stage. Georgia Tech has a penchant for playing in close games. Virginia nearly lost to Washington State this past Saturday. These teams are not invincible, either. SMU also remains undefeated in ACC play, but Miami will face the Mustangs in November and I expect the Hurricanes will win that game knowing its importance. Miami’s margin-for-error is over and I think that’s a positive in the long run for a team that has significantly more talent than any other in the ACC.
Pick: Miami to win the ACC (+280 on DraftKings)
Selling: South Carolina should consider firing Shane Beamer
I think Shane Beamer is a pretty good head coach despite South Carolina’s dreadful 2025 season. Beamer’s flaw, to this point in his career, has been hiring offensive coordinators. Marcus Satterfield was a mistake. Dowell Loggains was an improvement, although even he arguably didn’t get the most out of South Carolina’s talent on offense. The decision to promote Mike Shula is probably the biggest reason why the Gamecocks are 1-4 in the SEC entering Week 9.
If South Carolina’s disaster season continues, should Beamer be fired? I would say no. We’re still only 1 year removed from the Gamecocks winning 9 regular season games. That’s South Carolina’s best non-Steve Spurrier season in more than 20 years. I think Beamer deserves another opportunity. But he has to get better at hiring offensive coordinators, and fast. South Carolina has never had a top-40 offense (by yards per play) under Beamer. This year, the Gamecocks rank 121st.
Buying: Boise State is the class of the Mountain West
A few weeks ago, I jumped on UNLV as a relative long-shot to win the Mountain West. Those dreams more or less perished on Saturday as the Rebels were destroyed by Boise State. The Broncos already have 2 losses and likely won’t contend for a Playoff berth into November, but they sure do appear to be the class of the Mountain West. UNLV’s offense is elite, but the defense is abominable. I can’t imagine UNLV (or San Diego State or anyone else) going into Boise and winning the MWC title in December. The odds for Boise to take home the conference crown seem way too short to me after Saturday’s dominant showing.
Pick: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-145 on BetMGM)
Selling: The Big 12 is up for grabs
I’m not worried about Texas Tech even after its loss to Arizona State this past weekend. The Red Raiders were without their starting quarterback and still have a major talent advantage over every other team in the Big 12. Texas Tech has Oklahoma State this week, which should be manageable with or without Behren Morton under center. BYU could give Texas Tech a tough game, but that contest is in Lubbock — the Red Raiders will likely be heavily favored. I think we’re headed for an 11-1 finish for Texas Tech before facing a good-but-not-great opponent in the Big 12 title game. Give me the Red Raiders to prevail.
Pick: Texas Tech to win the Big 12 Championship (-110 on DraftKings)
Buying: UCLA’s head coaching search should be over
After a third-straight win, it’s becoming clear UCLA’s coaching search should begin and end with Jerry Neuheisel. The former Bruin has been serving as the program’s interim offensive coordinator and has done a fantastic job leading the offense. It also seems he has the command of the locker room — highly-unusual for interim coaches, particularly in this era:
In a cycle where UCLA might not be one of the 10 best jobs to come open, promoting Neuheisel seems like a slam-dunk decision.
Buying: It’s over for Mike Norvell at Florida State
With Florida State’s loss to Stanford early Sunday morning, it’s become clear that the situation is beyond recoverable for Mike Norvell. He’s reportedly lost the locker room, which is rather apparent given the Noles have now lost 11 of their last 12 ACC games. Florida State’s roster quit at the end of last season, too. But Norvell’s buyout was too large, so FSU decided to bring in veteran coordinators instead of telling Norvell to hit the road. That appeared to work after a Week 1 win over Alabama, but it was just a mirage.
The loss to Stanford is arguably a new low point for Florida State. Just a year and a half ago, FSU went 8-0 in ACC play and was robbed of a College Football Playoff berth. Since then, no one in this league has been worse. Every ACC team has at least 3 conference wins since the start of the 2025 season — except Florida State, who has 1. Norvell still has a massive buyout from the contract he earned after that great 2023 season, but every loss seemingly makes it more and more manageable. I expect Florida State to join the growing list of top programs to have a coaching search this cycle.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
