10 things I’m absolutely overreacting to after Week 1 in the SEC
By Chris Wright
Published:
First things first: Amid all of the changes and wild proposals this offseason, there was one constant — Indiana coach Curt Cignetti still is insufferable.
My bad. This piece is dedicated to overreacting, and that character assessment is the antithesis of an overreaction.
Saying that Texas won’t make the Playoff after a weak Week 1 showing at Ohio State? Or that FSU might? Or insisting the Kalen DeBoer countdown is on at Alabama, $70 million be damned? That’s more like it.
Those are just some of the 10 things I’m overreacting to after an eye-opening Week 1 in and around the SEC.
10. Arch Sadness
Late in final minutes of Arch Manning’s disastrous first-half flop at Ohio State, Fox Sports asked a trivia question: “Who was the last preseason Heisman Trophy favorite to win the Heisman?”
The answer was Matt Leinart, in 2004.
After Manning proceeded to airmail his next pass, I joked: “Who was the last Heisman Trophy preseason favorite to be benched in the opening game?”
Manning wasn’t in danger of being benched, even after going 5-for-10 for 25 yards, side-arming balls (for whatever reason) into the turf along the way.
But he hardly looked like a top-tier SEC quarterback, much less like the preseason Heisman favorite. He didn’t even look as good as Tennessee’s quarterback — um, the new guy, Joey Aguilar, not famous uncle Peyton Manning.
First true road start. At the defending national champion. Retooled offense. Apply all the standard caveats. Too predictably, Twitter was full of jokes, as well. Commercial count, jabs at his last name, comparisons to (pick a Sanders) or Bronny.
This one was fake, but still amusing:
Arch rebounded a bit in the second half, but as debuts go, it was more notable for what it wasn’t than what it was.
His Heisman odds already dropped, but that says more about Vegas than Manning or his future. Here’s a thought: Maybe next time you don’t essentially give a first-time starter that kind of preseason billing?
9. Remember No. 9 …
No doubt you heard lots of numbers after Alabama’s loss to unranked Florida State on Saturday. You probably heard that Kalen DeBoer now has lost 4 games to unranked teams. You probably heard that it was Alabama’s first season-opening loss since 2001.
Here’s a number you probably didn’t hear: 9 — that’s how many games Nick Saban lost from 2011-17.
Fourteen games into his Alabama tenure, Kalen DeBoer is more than halfway there.
DeBoer lost 4 games in 2024. Given what you saw in Alabama’s lackluster loss in Tally, is it out of the question that DeBoer loses 5 games in 2025?
It’s ridiculous to think Alabama could lose as many games in the first 2 seasons after Saban as it did during a 7-year stretch that included 4 national championships, but that’s the reality for DeBoer’s program.
(Heck, even if you wanted to change the years and start from scratch, Saban lost 8 games and won 1 national championship in his first 3 years at Alabama. And he had to rebuild from scratch. DeBoer can only lose 3 more games and must win a natty this year or next to match that start — and he started with Saban’s players.)
You might say it’s unfair to compare any coach to the greatest coach of all-time. And I’d agree. But that’s exactly what DeBoer signed up for when he left Washington to replace Saban.
Here’s the real problem, you know, besides DeBoer’s near-$70 million buyout: Nobody fears DeBoer’s Alabama. Florida State certainly didn’t.
FSU QB Thomas Castellanos called out the Tide before the game, saying they don’t have Nick Saban to save them.
How did the ‘Noles prove it? After Alabama appeared to regain momentum with a 4th-quarter TD to pull within 7, FSU went for it on 4th-and-1 at its own 34, rather than play punt-and-protect. Of course the ‘Noles converted — on their way to the end zone. Why? Zero fear.
Can you imagine any team going for that, in that situation, with that much at stake, against a Nick Saban team? I can’t, either.
8. Because it’s never too early to speculate …
This Alabama situation reminds me of the predicament UNC basketball found itself in after Dean Smith retired. It’s slightly different in that Smith handpicked his short-term successor, long-time assistant Bill Guthridge. Guthridge led UNC to the Final Four twice, but he only stayed for 3 seasons. He was never UNC’s long-term answer. That was going to be the coach who followed Guthridge.
North Carolina pursued former Tar Heel and longtime Smith assistant Roy Williams, but Williams reluctantly stayed at Kansas. UNC hired former player Matt Doherty. It didn’t go well. Doherty went 8-20 in Year 2 and was fired after a mediocre Year 3.
North Carolina went back to Williams, with Smith all but begging Williams to come home and revive the program. He did. And then some. Williams led the Tar Heels to the NCAA championship in 2005, 2009 and 2017. He won more NCAA Tournament titles in that span than any coach in the country, including his neighbor, Mike Krzyzewski.
What does that have to do with Alabama football in 2025?
If this continues at its current pace, the Tide soon will be looking for a new coach. They pursued former Alabama player Dabo Swinney once — and he obviously turned them down.
When the time comes, the Tide can’t let Dabo stay away again.
Unless, of course, they’d rather have the guy with ties to the state who just keeps beating them — new FSU OC Gus Malzahn.
7. Brace yourself … FSU might actually be back
I don’t know who was happier Saturday night, Mike Norvell’s family … or the SEC’s favorite punching bag, Danny Kanell.
Oh, who are we kidding? Kanell celebrates Alabama losses more than LSU or Auburn fans do. And the fact that his ‘Noles delivered the Tide takedown this time?
My advice? If you’re not a fan of Kanell’s smirk and smack directed the SEC’s way, stay far, far away from the computer and TV this week. It’s already started.
The truly scary part is FSU looked the part: Fast, physical and fearless. Very suddenly, coupled with Clemson’s home loss, the Seminoles became the most likely ACC team to reach the Playoff in 2025.
6. Don’t overreact to Tennessee … Don’t overreact to Tennessee …
No matter how many times I remind myself not to overreact to anything Tennessee does well, I just can’t help it. I’m usually overly optimistic about the Vols, admittedly because SEC football is just more fun when they’re rolling and Vols fans are doing what Vols fans do.
This season? I was in wait-and-see mode, for good reason — just not the reason you probably thought.
I wasn’t worried about the Vols losing Nico Iamaleava. He was fine at UT, nothing more. Joey Aguilar is an upgrade without the fuss — and looked the part in an impressive dual-threat debut vs. Syracuse. The real concern? Who could replace Dylan Sampson? The sample size is 1 game, and “Syracuse defense” isn’t a term that strikes fear in opponents. Still, Star Thomas and DeSean Bishop combined for 174 yards rushing. Each had a long run of at least 20 yards.
I get it: Others are low on the Vols. There’s a reason BetMGM lists Tennessee’s odds to win the SEC Championship at +2200 — behind 9 other SEC teams.
I’m not saying Tennessee is a threat to win the SEC. But their SEC schedule screams 6-2 — at worst. There’s no way this team finishes 9th in the SEC — as media predicted this summer.
5. SEC Team of the Week? LSU
LSU held on to beat No. 4 Clemson 17-10. That might not sound terribly impressive, but the last time LSU won a season-opener, Joe Burrow was the quarterback.
That 2019 team ran the table and built a solid argument to be called the greatest college football team of all time.
Nobody’s going to confuse these 2025 Tigers with those Tigers, but the worm might have turned Saturday night at Clemson’s Death Valley.
Brian Kelly didn’t have to pound his fist in anger, because this time, the players he recruited and signed to close out tight games in hostile environments did exactly that.
Was there room for improvement? It’s Week 1, of course there is.
But there also were flashes of a fast and furious defense, a staple that has been sorely missing in the 2020s. The running game, nonexistent last season, showed signs of life against an elite defense. And gunslinging Garrett Nussmeier played smart, winning football while still reminding folks of his arm talent. (His perfectly placed overturned TD throw to Barion Brown was the throw of the week … until it didn’t count.)
Those are all ingredients of a Playoff team. It’s one week, but if you’ve been waiting for the lights to come on in Baton Rouge on Kelly’s watch, this gutsy win at Clemson represents more than just a flicker of hope.
(Apologies for not mentioning your team that blew out a cupcake. Of course, that’s far better than me calling out a team that didn’t blow out a cupcake. A win’s a win, right, Kentucky?)
4. 4 Playoff teams in 2024 that will come up short in 2025
SMU: Every year is different, but … how many times will we be reminded of SMU’s 28-point loss in the first round of the 2024 Playoff? That result, of course, came after the Selection Committee’s controversial decision to include the Mustangs after they lost the ACC title game. SMU capitalized on a cupcake ACC schedule in its first year in the league. This season, the Mustangs travel to Clemson and face Miami (I know, I know).
Boise State: The Broncos made the Playoff last season ahead of other Group of 5 hopefuls in large part because of their narrow loss at Oregon in Week 2. As losses go, it was impressive. Oregon couldn’t stop Ashton Jeanty. At all. A similar narrative/opportunity exists in 2025 when the Broncos visit Notre Dame in Week 6. Can they keep it close without Jeanty? I don’t see how, not after getting blown out at USF. Circle the date against Dan Mullen and UNLV in Week 8. That game might ultimately decide the G5 Playoff rep — but with Boise potentially playing the spoiler.
Texas: You came here for overreactions, right? Arch Manning eventually will be fine, but he didn’t appear to have a lot of help against Ohio State. I’m not overreacting to the Longhorns losing a road game by a single score. I might be overreacting to the lack of firepower on display. Texas still plays 4 ranked SEC teams — and 3 of those games are away from home. Even if they split those games, they’ll have 3 losses and likely a slim chance of returning to the SEC Championship Game. Every year, a preseason top-10 team tanks. Texas won’t sink to 2024 FSU levels (preseason No. 10 … to 10 losses) or even 2023 USC levels (preseason No. 6 … to 5 losses), but landing outside of the top 12 in the final Playoff ranking? That’s certainly plausible based on what we saw at Ohio State.
Indiana: Why? Aside from opening with the weakest 3-game nonconference slate imaginable, IU’s B1G schedule is more difficult than the 2024 layup that fooled the committee into believing the Hoosiers were Playoff worthy. (They didn’t fool Overreactions; we sounded the warning bells in early October that the Hoosiers were set up to make it, even though Michigan and Ohio State would expose them as pretenders. That played out exactly the way we said it would.) The good news is we won’t have to wait long for the truth to be revealed in 2025. After IU’s inevitable 3-0 start against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State — quick aside, IMG Academy has more blue-chip talent than any of those 3 programs — the Hoosiers face a ranked Illinois squad and travel to Iowa in back-to-back weeks. A trip to Oregon and Penn State still await. No matter how much Curt Cignetti whines this year about the B1G being superior to the SEC, a 2-loss Indiana squad has no chance to make the Playoff. Congrats on the 13-point win over Old Dominion. No wonder you skipped out on playing Virginia.
3. The 3 Heisman finalists will be …
We have a full page devoted to the Heisman Trophy. It contains Heisman odds, updated in real-time, plus scouting reports on the leading contenders and a bit of history. Check it out.
Here’s how I would fill out a Heisman ballot after Week 1:
1. Garrett Nussmeier: Sure, other QBs had bigger days statistically. (Shout out to Arkansas’ Taylen Green, who threw a career-high 6 TD passes, and Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed, who tossed 4.) But no QB had a better day in a Playoff-type atmosphere. Nussmeier threw for 230 yards and 1 TD in leading LSU to a win at No. 4 Clemson. His numbers will be there in the end; he passed for 4,052 yards last season. His Heisman bid will be tied to LSU’s Playoff run. So far, so very good.
2. Thomas Castellanos: Tommy Football? Sure, he’s bounced around — Florida State is his 3rd program, but he spent the better part of Saturday bouncing around Alabama’s defense. He made smash plays with his arm and feet — delivering strikes and notice that the ‘Noles not only are the most improved team in the country but also could become part of the Playoff mix. Bet365 lists Castellanos’ Heisman odds at +12500, so there is plenty of value available if you believe.
3. Jeremiah Smith: Forget the opener, a’ight? Breaking in a new QB against a national contender hell-bent on taking you away isn’t the way you launch a Heisman bid. The most underrated part of Smith’s Heisman campaign is precedent. Did you know that more receivers (2) have won the Heisman in the past 10 years than running backs (1, the great Derrick Henry)? Sure, quarterbacks still lead the way in the 2025 race, but there’s no player in America capable of separating from his peers — or opponents — quite like Smith.
2. Thank you, again, Playoff expansion
Back in 2014, when talking heads like Barrett Sallee were bemoaning the move to a 4-team Playoff and fearing subsequent expansion, I was reminding folks of how much better their precious regular season would become.
Why? An expanded Playoff offers wiggle room. For every team except Indiana, apparently, it also incentives teams to schedule aggressively.
There is no way, absolutely no way, that we get 3 true home/road blockbuster showdowns in Week 1 like Texas at Ohio State, Alabama at FSU, and LSU at Clemson in a world where 1 loss could eliminate your championship hopes.
That scheduling is the product of Playoff expansion.
Just say thank you and move on.
You’re welcome.
1. Farewell, Lee Corso
College basketball has Dickie V.
College football has Lee Corso.
Both are former college coaches turned endearing ambassadors, sharing their love of the game for decades with ESPN audiences.
For legions of fans, Corso and Dickie V are the faces of their sports — even if their face sometimes was covered by a mascot costume.
Corso made his final headgear pick Saturday on College GameDay. He went out a winner, too, correctly picking Ohio State. Cole’s GameDay Blog, which has tracked Corso’s picks since the start, says Corso retired with a record of 287-144. That’s impressive.
His colleagues might joke that he was much better at picking games than coaching games, where he had a lifetime record of 73-85-6.
Heck, he went 8-8 against Nick Saban — as a picker!
Enjoy retirement, Coach, and thank you for the laughs and memories.
Managing Editor
A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.
