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No. 2 seed is No. 1 position for Alabama in College Football Playoff
By John Brasier
Published:
No. 2 might be the No. 1 position for Alabama in the College Football Playoff — in the beginning, not when it’s over.
Playing Big Ten champion Michigan State looks like the most favorable matchup the Crimson Tide could have drawn in the semifinals. The oddsmakers agreed, making the Tide a 9-point favorite on their opening line. (No. 4 Oklahoma opened as a 3-point favorite over No. 1 Clemson.)
Not to take away from the No. 3 Spartans, who have one of the toughest defensive fronts in the nation and veteran QB Connor Cook, frequently mentioned as a possible first-round choice in the NFL Draft.
But they are far less dangerous than Clemson and Oklahoma, who have the offensive potential to jump out to a lead and force the Tide out of its power running game.
Michigan State passes more than Alabama, but the two teams are similar in style. Both are tough at the line of scrimmage and somewhat conservative on offense.
Alabama has an edge in playmakers with Derrick Henry running the ball, Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart catching it, a fierce defensive line with support from LB Reggie Ragland and Cyrus Jones, Eddie Jackson, Marlon Humphrey and Minkah Fitzpatrick blanketing receivers and pouncing on mistakes.
Yes, Michigan State may be able to go toe-to-toe with the Crimson Tide on the line of scrimmage. But the Spartans aren’t likely to hit the Tide with big plays. Not the way Clemson can with Deshaun Watson running and passing or Oklahoma can with Baker Mayfield throwing to Sterling Shepard or Dede Westbrook.
The chances of the Spartans jumping out to an early two- or three-touchdown lead on the Tide are miniscule.
Though 12-1, the Spartans’ points per game differential is only 10.6, and that includes a 55-16 victory over Penn State. They don’t blow teams out. They won six games by seven points or less and beat MAC opponents Western Michigan and Central Michigan by a combined 33 points.
The Spartans averaged only 3.97 yards per carry, though the rushing attack improved late in the season with the return of three starting linemen, including preseason All-Americans Jake Allen and Jack Conklin.
Freshman LJ Scott, who weighs in at 233 pounds and demonstrated his power with his game-winning touchdown run against Iowa in the Big Ten Championship game, did average 4.94 yards per carry.
But Cook did most of the work on offense, throwing for 2,921 yards and 24 TDs. He averaged 7.9 yards per attempt — Watson averaged 8.5 and Mayfield produced 9.6.
Michigan State is a tough opponent. Just not as tough as Clemson or Oklahoma.
