2025 college football predictions on Kalshi: Picks to win SEC, national title and more
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The 2025 college football season is almost here.
With just a couple weeks to go before Week 1, Kalshi is offering numerous college football-related prediction markets ranging from the national championship to even individual games. Unlike traditional sports betting apps, Kalshi is available in all 50 U.S. states.
If you’re unfamiliar with Kalshi, here’s a brief explainer on how it works: Users purchase “contracts” for the prediction market of their choosing. If the prediction is accurate, each contract will be paid out at a rate of $1 per contract purchased. It’s also worth noting users can sell contracts in their portfolio before the prediction has been settled. For example, if you predict your team to win in Week 1, but a key injury occurs mid-game, you could sell your contract(s) at the current market rate.
College football football predictions on Kalshi
With that being said, here are a few college football picks on Kalshi:
Alabama to win the national championship
I’m very high on Alabama going into this season. I wouldn’t mind a prediction on the Crimson Tide to win the SEC either, but I like Alabama’s price to win the national title more. As of publication, a $50 prediction on Alabama to win the natty would mean a $587 payout if the Crimson Tide get it done. And as we saw with Ohio State last season, not winning your conference championship game is hardly an impediment to winning the national championship.
Yes, Alabama does have an inexperienced starter in Ty Simpson. But I believe Simpson will be competent enough to run the system that Michael Penix Jr. thrived in to the tune of 5,000+ yards in 2023. And if he’s not, Alabama has some quality backup options in Austin Mack and Keelon Russell who could take over before the end of the season. Defensively, this team is loaded and has one of the best defensive coaching staffs in the country.
Texas to win the SEC championship
The Longhorns play an extremely light schedule by SEC standards. Maybe Oklahoma’s strong defensive front will give the Longhorns trouble this year and Texas does once again have to face Georgia, but this schedule is otherwise pretty manageable. I think UT probably cruises to the SEC title game even if Arch Manning isn’t good enough to be a Heisman Trophy finalist (if he is, then look out). Right now, a $50 prediction on Texas to win the SEC would pay out $190.
One note on Texas: Offensive line depth is a concern. If you take the Longhorns in any kind of season-long prediction market, I’d advise monitoring that situation throughout the year. Texas lost both of last year’s offensive tackles to the NFL and more recently lost Andre Cojoe to a season-ending injury. If Texas were to lose either of its projected starters at tackle for an extended stretch this year, I might look at cashing out.
Georgia not to win the SEC championship
Another pick I like is Georgia to not win the SEC championship — a market you can really only participate in with Kalshi and other prediction markets. Based on current prices, $50 prediction against UGA winning the SEC would result in a $62 payout.
I do think Georgia’s wide receiver room is vastly improved over what Carson Beck had to deal with last season. But there are enough questions about UGA’s offense in general — Gunner Stockton and the offensive line come to mind — that I find myself fading the Bulldogs this year. Georgia’s offense fell off a cliff under Mike Bobo in 2024 and Kirby Smart opted to bring Bobo back for another campaign in 2025 — we’ll see if that’s a decision he’ll come to regret. Georgia also faces a very tough SEC slate that includes both Alabama and Texas as well as games away from home against Florida, Tennessee and Auburn.
Arizona State to win the Big 12
The Big 12 is an absolute mess this year. At Kalshi, there are 5 teams who have between a 14% chance and a 16% chance to win the conference. I’m backing Arizona State ($336 payout on a $50 prediction). The Sun Devils got off to a slow start last season but ultimately made the College Football Playoff and nearly knocked off Texas. Quarterback Sam Leavitt is back, as is Kenny Dillingham, who is probably the best coach in this conference.
Per ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Arizona State leads the Big 12 in returning production this year. Kansas State figures to be another top contender and Texas Tech’s spending in the transfer portal has been well-documented. But at current market prices, I think you’re getting great value on Arizona State to repeat as Big 12 champs.
Clemson to beat LSU outright in Week 1
Kalshi has individual game markets, too. Clemson is a notable favorite over LSU in Week 1. Kalshi’s market shows Dabo Swinney’s bunch has a 59% chance to win outright. Both of these teams have big College Football Playoff aspirations this year and both of them return an impressive amount of continuity. While much of the Week 1 discussion will be about Texas vs. Ohio State, this matchup between Clemson and LSU features 2 of the best quarterbacks in the country in Cade Klubnik and Garrett Nussmeier.
I’m picking Clemson because I think it has a significant advantage in the trenches. TJ Parker, Peter Woods and Co. could wreak havoc on an LSU offensive line that is replacing 4 starters from last year. Nussmeier’s bout with tendinitis may not help matters either. LSU could certainly pull off the upset, but I think Clemson is undervalued here. A $50 prediction would mean a $77 payout if the Tigers can successfully defend their home field.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
