Two programs sitting in very different spaces meet Saturday night when No. 5 Texas A&M hosts unranked Florida at Kyle Field (7 p.m. ET, ESPN).
The Gators are coming off a home win over then No. 9 Texas, but the heat is still very much on much-maligned head coach Billy Napier, who remains under .500 (21-22) in 3 and a half seasons as Florida’s coach.
The Aggies will be Florida’s fourth consecutive game against a top-10 opponent, dating back to a 20-10 loss at LSU on Sept. 13. Three of those 4 opponents have been ranked in the top 5 at kickoff, with Texas the lone exception. It’s the last game in a dizzying and difficult run for Florida and Napier, who have faced more ranked opponents than any program in college football since Napier’s first season at Florida in 2022. But Napier is just 5-16 in 21 ranked matchups at Florida, and 0 of Florida’s 5 ranked wins have come on the road. In other words, Florida will need to overcome some serious history if it hopes to pull another stunning upset on Saturday.
As for Texas A&M, the program is ascendant under Mike Elko, who is 13-5 in a season and a half in College Station after taking over for the expensive and failed Jimbo Fisher. Elko is unbeaten at home against unranked opponents in his tenure, with his lone home defeat coming a season ago against rival Texas. The Aggies enter the Florida game playing some of the best defense in America, ranking 17th in the country in SP+ defensive efficiency, 14th in success rate defense, and 21st in total defense. Texas A&M can get to 6-0 for the first time since 2016, Kevin Sumlin’s fifth season, by handling business as a home favorite.
Battling a rash of injuries, outside noise, and the incredible environment at Kyle Field figures to be a daunting test for the Gators as they continue the fight to save their season and head coach’s job.
Here are 3 matchups that will dictate whether the Aggies keep rolling or Florida pulls the upset.
DJ Lagway vs. Mike Elko’s third down defenses
A season ago, Elko made life miserable on both Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway by showing a host of different looks to confuse the Florida quarterbacks in a 33-20 Aggies rout in Gainesville. Lagway especially struggled with exotic pressures like this one, where who brought pressure and who dropped into coverage was hidden until the last moment.
Elko and the Aggies have been stupendous on third down in their wins over Auburn and Mississippi State, allowing just 1 conversion in 24 attempts. That dominance isn’t a typo.
Elko and A&M pull it off by showing a host of different looks, including 3-3 looks with 3 down linemen, 3 linebackers (a group that could include former Florida linebacker Scooby Williams, who excels in coverage, if Williams can play on Saturay), and 5 defensive backs. While Elko mixes coverages consistently, the cover 3 fire zone is the bread and butter look—and one that has frustrated Lagway in the past, most recently against Miami.
In that look, they bring pressure with 4, getting a rusher off the edge, and dropping 2 linebackers into coverage, so that the defense is essentially an under 3 deep cover 3. In the play below, they use a similar look to essentially show cover 3 but the linebacker takes the motion and flat, transforming the defense to cover 6, but still allowing A&M to have a numerical advantage on the trips look from the opposing offense.
The variety of Elko’s looks allow the Aggies to create pressure but also play conservatively, a combination that has helped them allow just a 31.6% success rate against on third down this season, good for 5th best nationally.
In other words, it’s a handful for an opposing quarterback to navigate presnap, especially one like Lagway, who has struggled against third-down variance, especially on the road.
Texas A&M may be down one excellent corner, with Tyreek Chappell’ status up in the air (despite being off the injury report midweek). But the Aggies will get Bryce Anderson, who has missed 2 games, back at safety and Jordan Shaw has played well in Chappell’s absence.
Two weeks ago, I’d have told you this is the biggest mismatch in the football game. Last Saturday, though, Lagway earned SEC Player of the Week honors lighting up a Texas defense ranked in the top 5 in the country to the tune of 298 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Which Lagway shows up on the road will dictate Florida’s upset chances.
Jadan Baugh and Florida’s zone run game vs. Texas A&M’s front 7
Florida’s Jadan Baugh boasts a 65.8% rushing success rate in 2025, good for third in the SEC overall, behind only Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy and Auburn’s Jeremiah Cobb.
The Gators sophomore is especially dynamic in zone concepts on either side of the talented Florida offensive line. Baugh averages 6.08 yards per rush in those concepts, whether they are run inside or outside, per SEC Stat Cat. Baugh also ranks third in the SEC in broken tackle rate and he’s elusive even if you manage to split a run gap, as evidenced by this touchdown run early in the Texas game.
It’s no secret that the Gators must run the ball effectively to win, especially in a hostile environment on the road.
Texas A&M ranks 32nd in the nation in rushing defense, but it gives up 5.1 yards per carry in zone concepts, as opposed to just 3.37 yards per attempt overall. That should suggest a small edge to Napier and Florida in this matchup, and a pathway to a Gators’ upset.
Mario Craver vs. Devin Moore and the Florida safeties
I love strength on strength, and we have that with Texas A&M’s talented slot receiver Mario Craver and Florida’s outstanding coverage corner Devin Moore.
Typically, Moore plays on the boundary, meaning Craver could get matched up with a Florida nickel or a younger corner, such as Cormani McClain. But I’d expect the Gators to shadow Craver, who ranks third in the country in explosive receiving plays (20 yards or more) in 2025.
Moore, a ball-hawking and fast corner who plays with excellent technique, has shown an ability to make elite plays as a boundary or inside corner, and he allowed just 1 catch on 5 targets against Texas to accompany this marvelous interception.
But even with Moore tracking Craver downfield, the Aggies are excellent at getting him the ball and space and stressing defenses by forcing open field tackles. Craver leads the SEC with 274 yards after the catch and missed tackle rate, per PFF.
Once he makes you miss, Craver has tremendous speed and plays with great balance. That will pressure Florida’s safeties, Bryce Thornton and Jordan Castell, who have limited explosives better this season than a year ago but have still given up 14 pass plays of 20 yards or more in 2025.
Prediction: Texas A&M 23, Florida 14
There’s just too much for the Gators to overcome at night in one of the SEC’s best environments. Two outstanding defenses keep the game tight for a while but a big Marcel Reed to Mario Craver connection late puts the game to bed for the Aggies, who remain unbeaten.
Neil Blackmon covers SEC football and basketball for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
