GAINESVILLE, Fla. – The Gators end the regular season on the road as 7-point underdogs on their arch-rival’s senior night. It’s also the farewell for elite running back Dalvin Cook, who has been quite the spear in the Gators’ side. Florida’s top tacklers to potentially slow down Cook – LB Jarrad Davis, LB Alex Anzalone and S Marcus Maye – will be staying back home in Gainesville thanks to the injury bug. On the other side of the ball, a banged up offensive line will face one of the nation’s best pass rushes.
Those matchups rightfully give the Seminoles plenty of confidence, but here are five reasons for Florida fans to have faith that the Gators can upset the Seminoles and end their three-game losing streak in the series:
1 Jordan Scarlett has come into his own: Make no mistake, Cook is the star running back in this game. McElwain called him the most explosive player in college football, and the Gators will have their hands full on defense.
In Scarlett, the Gators have found a running back who can effectively pound the rock for 20-plus carries a game. The one-two punch of Scarlett and Lamical Perine helped the Gators move the ball for 7 minutes, 45 seconds against LSU and put points on the board in the fourth quarter. With Scarlett’s hard, physical running that often moves the pile for 5, 6 yards at a time, the Gators can keep the explosive Cook and the rest of FSU’s offense off the field.
It’s no secret, the lower the score, the better the Gators the chances. The emergence of Scarlett as the feature back makes that possible.
2. The play-action pass can push back on the Seminoles’ pass-rush: Another big advantage to Scarlett’s consistency is he sets up the play-action pass. FSU leads the nation with 41 sacks. That’s a problematic stat for the Gators, but the way to push back on the pass-rush is with the play-action pass, the bread and butter of McElwain’s offense.
While the offensive line is banged up, and LG Martez Ivey’s potential absence is a huge concern, the Gators are better suited to open up the deep passing game than their season numbers suggest. Austin Appleby didn’t light it up against LSU (7-of-17, 144 yards, TD), but he hit the pass that mattered most: the 98-yard touchdown dagger to Cleveland.
The Seminoles will play plenty of attention to Callaway and Cleveland on the edges, but that kind of speed will get a free a few times, especially on a well-timed play-action call. Appleby’s not the most accurate thrower, but his strong arm has led to big plays in the deep passing game against Tennessee and LSU.
3. The Gators are focused and united with more to play for: One of the more interesting storylines from Florida media sessions this week was the fact that Gators receivers encouraged McElwain to keep running the ball because Scarlett was having success.
“Oh yeah, it was me, (Antonio) Callaway and Tyrie (Cleveland) , we all were like, ‘Jordan’s been getting like 5 yards every call,’” Brandon Powell recalled. “We all went up to Coach Mac on one of final drives and told him just keep running the ball. He’s running the ball hard. He’s running people over. Why not just keep running the ball? We ran the ball downfield, drove down and got two field goals that helped us win the game.”
While Florida’s wideouts would love to boost their season stats, they care more about the team goal of playing for a championship.
“When we do that, we do great things,” Powell said. “Jordan, he was having an awesome game. Of course as a receiver you want to catch the ball, but when he’s running the ball like that, and it’s working, why not keep doing it? It helped us win the game. Everyone buy into that, and we’ll do great things.”
There’s no shortage of pride to play for in the Florida-Florida State game. FSU’s seniors want to go out 4-0 against the Gators. Many of their teammates will be just as motivated send them out with a win in their final game at Doak Campbell Stadium. There’s also the joy of beating your rival, regardless of whether it’s the first time or fourth time.
But that’s not the same as playing for a championship. After moving up eight spots to No. 15 in the latest Playoff rankings, it’s clear that with wins over Florida State and Alabama, Florida could be a Final Four team. The Gators are truly playing as a team for the good of the team, and the unselfish receivers are the perfect example. Florida will be the better focused team on Saturday, for multiple reasons.
4. Jimbo Fisher’s LSU card has already been played: A year ago, LSU was reportedly looking for a new coach and Fisher was the top target. Since Les Miles wasn’t officially fired, reports vary about how far along Fisher’s representatives and the LSU brass got through backchannels.
The Tigers officially have an opening this time, and what do you know, the rumor mill suggests they’re all in on Fisher. Up the road in Tallahassee, Fisher has maintained he’s happy at Florida State, but hasn’t gone to great lengths to deny the rumors.
With the latest rumors saying that LSU has made an offer, it’s no surprise that the situation came up multiple times on the Noles coach’s radio show.
Here’s what Orlando Sentinel reporter Safid Dean observed:
“Listen, I love it here. I really do,” Fisher said while flashing a huge grin. “So just be patient. We’re good.”
It sure sounds like Fisher is getting ready to tell the Seminoles he’s staying at FSU once he’s done securing a hefty raise based off the Tigers’ interest. Last year, Fisher announced he was staying on Saturday prior to the kickoff of the Florida game. It fired up the Seminoles and boosted them to a 27-2 win in The Swamp.
Sorry Jimbo, that kind of move loses its luster the second time in as many years. If he announces he’s staying at FSU again this Saturday, it won’t have the same effect.
5. How do you follow up a big win? With a bigger win. McElwain’s Gators know how to do just that: Remember that thrilling Gators victory that came down to a play at the last-second? No I’m not talking about last week’s goal-line stop at Death Valley, I’m talking about last year’s 28-27 Florida win over Tennessee that came down to a last-second field goal in The Swamp.
After the come-from-behind upset over the Volunteers, many wondered how McElwain’s squad would prepare for then-No. 3 Ole Miss. It would have been easy for the Gators to hear the love from the media and their classmates and let it go to their head.
As Florida fans fondly remember, the Gators followed up that Tennessee win with a definitive thumping of Ole Miss, 38-10. That’s how you follow up a big win like clinching the SEC East by beating LSU in Death Valley. It’s time for Florida to ride that wave of momentum into Tallahassee and pull off the biggest win of the regular season.
Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.
