5 reasons Florida will beat Iowa … and 3 reasons it might not
By Andrew Olson
Published:
For the second consecutive year, Jim McElwain’s squad is looking to regroup in a bowl game not far from Gainesville against a Big Ten opponent.
A year ago, Michigan stomped the Gators 41-7 in the Citrus Bowl, arguably the low point of a 2015 campaign that began with promise (6-0 start) and ended in misery (three-game losing skid). This time, No. 20 Florida (8-4) will try to end the season on a high note and gain some offseason momentum by beating No. 21 Iowa (8-4) in Monday’s Outback Bowl.
UF enters the game a three-point favorite, and there are reasons to believe the Gators can squeak out a close win to improve to 9-4:
5 reasons Florida will beat Iowa
1. An opening-drive touchdown might just get it done: Florida’s offense is generally hard to watch. As a pocket passer, QB Austin Appleby has a habit of reminding everyone why he couldn’t cut it Purdue. He frequently fails to find the open receiver and is liable for one or two poor throws into coverage seemingly every game.
That said, there’s one time when the Gator offense tends to impress, and that’s on the opening possession. The plays scripted by offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier are often the most creative, and they’re the ones practiced the most and most likely to be properly executed. Florida found ways to get the ball in the hands of top WR Antonio Callaway and marched down the field on the opening drive against Alabama, going 64 yards in 10 plays and taking an early 7-0 lead.
It was obviously going to take more than one touchdown against the Crimson Tide, but one touchdown and a few field goals might be enough against the Hawkeyes. Iowa is the No. 78 scoring offense, and the Gators have the No. 9 scoring defense.
2. There were actually positives from the Alabama game: The SEC Championship was an overall ugly game for the Gators. Believe it or not, the opening drive wasn’t Florida’s only highlight.
Just before the half, the Gators drove 92 yards in 10 plays for a touchdown that cut the deficit to 33-16. If you watched Alabama this season, you know it’s rare for the Crimson Tide defense to give up that kind of drive.
On UF’s first possession of the second half, the team drove 64 yards to face 1st-and-goal at the Alabama 2-yard line. The Crimson Tide stuffed the Gators at the goal-line, so there was nothing to show for the drive, but it was impressive the way they moved the ball on an elite defense.
3. Hawkeyes aren’t ballhawks: Iowa brings a stingy defense to the Outback Bowl, but nobody is mistaking the Hawkeyes for ballhawks. When it comes to turnovers gained, Iowa’s ranks No. 92 nationally with 16.
If Florida can avoid turnovers, most trips into Hawkeyes territory should result in at least a field goal.
4. The Gators are determined not to repeat last year: Florida finished its 2015 season in dreadful fashion, getting outscored 97-24 in those three losses. The Gators enter the Outback Bowl coming off back-to-back losses to the Seminoles and Crimson Tide, again. All year, UF’s returning leaders made a point that they would not allow the team to end the 2016 season the same way as last year. In non-Playoff bowl games, you never know which teams will actually show up motivated. The Gators are plenty motivated because they’re determined to avoid another season ending on a three-game skid.
5. Extra incentives: Every coach wants to win every game. It’s their job. For one (arguably two) Florida assistants, this Outback Bowl is more than just an extra game for the Gators as a reward for having a winning season.
Linebackers coach Randy Shannon is the interim defensive coordinator following the departure of Geoff Collins, who accepted the head coaching job at Temple. The Iowa game is considered an audition for Shannon, as McElwain will not name a new defensive coordinator until after the Outback Bowl.
Shannon might not be the only assistant coaching for his job. Following the loss to Alabama, fans and media members alike are questioning if McElwain can afford to keep Nussmeier around for a third season. The Gators’ offensive numbers for the past two seasons are dismal, with total offense ranked in the 100s (No. 112 in 2015, No. 116 in 2016).
McElwain and Nussmeier’s former boss, Nick Saban, both praised the embattled coordinator at the SEC Championship Game. At a recent press conference, McElwain said he doesn’t expect any more staff changes once he fills the vacancy left by Collins. If Nussmeier is blamed for an Outback Bowl, loss, however, McElwain might cave to the pressure. Nussmeier is arguably as motivated as Shannon to call his best game.
3 reasons Florida won’t beat Iowa
1. All those drives against Alabama are impressive, but it comes down to points: The Gators enter the game No. 116 in total offense and No. 109 in scoring offense. Iowa happens to boast the No. 25 total defense and No. 9 scoring defense (tied with Florida). Points are likely to come at a premium, and the Gators have struggled with red zone offense. Let’s face it, they’ve struggled on offense on all parts of the field.
If the injuries prove to be too much for Florida’s defense, it’s unlikely that the Gators’ offense will light up the Iowa defense.
2. Iowa doesn’t turn it over: And for those Florida fans counting on the Gators’ defense to spot the team a touchdown or two, you’ll be disappointed to learn that the Hawkeyes rarely turn it over. Iowa and Ohio State are tied for second fewest turnovers lost, with only nine giveaways on the year.
3. The injury bug: The Gators have dealt with injuries all year, and the Outback Bowl will be no exception. While it looked like LB Alex Anzalone, No. 3 on the team in tackles (53), would be returning after missing four games due to a broken arm, he was ruled out by McElwain earlier in the week despite practicing in full pads. The Gators will also be without Jarrad Davis, No. 2 in tackles with 60, and his top backup, David Reese.
That leaves Florida’s run defense highly vulnerable against a team that likes to use a two-back approach. Hawkeyes running backs LeShun Daniels Jr. and Akrum Wadley combined 1,979 yards and 20 touchdowns this season. Iowa may be able to hold onto the ball and wear the Gators down with the run game.
Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.
