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Alabama lost as a 20-plus-point favorite a week ago and it felt like the sky was falling in the aftermath.
Alabama nearly lost a second consecutive game as a 20-plus-point favorite. This time at home. The Tide entered the fourth quarter at home trailing South Carolina 19-14, but scored 13 unanswered in the fourth to escape with a 27-25 win. The Tide moved to 5-1 with the victory, but there’s reason for concern in Tuscaloosa as it relates to the College Football Playoff.
Only a few weeks removed from a win over Georgia that propelled Alabama to No. 1 in the country, the Tide have seen their season reach a critical juncture. One of the criticisms of the expanded Playoff was that last week’s shocking upset win for Vanderbilt didn’t actually impact Alabama’s CFP chances.
With Alabama in a tight ballgame in the fourth quarter, the ABC broadcast crew of Jesse Palmer and Joe Tessitore asked if Alabama could afford another loss.
“I think no,” Palmer responded. “Especially with the strength of schedule, when you’re not playing Texas, Ole Miss, or Texas A&M, I don’t think that’s enough juice to get in. … And remember, it’s not about divisions anymore. You can’t just win the West division and get the automatic berth (to the conference title game). You’ve got to be one of the top 2 teams in the conference to get to Atlanta. They’re not going to be that.”
Strength of schedule is, of course, relative in the SEC. The Crimson Tide don’t play Texas or Ole Miss, but they do have remaining games against Tennessee, Missouri, and LSU in the span of 4 weeks. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) says Alabama has already played a top-25 schedule and has the 15th-toughest remaining strength of schedule.
But a loss to an unranked team and then a narrow miss against a second unranked team in consecutive weeks really hurts the Tide when it comes to the eyeball test.
Alabama had a 27-19 lead with 1:54 to play after Jalen Milroe hit Germie Bernard for a 34-yard score on third-and-long. The Crimson Tide then gave up a 75-yard, 6-play touchdown drive that clawed South Carolina within 2 points.
South Carolina also recovered the ensuing onside kick attempt to give itself a chance to kick a game-winning field goal. On both the 2-point try from South Carolina and the ensuing possession, Gamecock quarterback LaNorris Sellers bailed out the Alabama defense. He threw the ball out of the back of the endzone on the try and then threw a pick to end the game.
It’s going to look like South Carolina gave Alabama the game after Alabama repeatedly tried to lose it.
The Tide were outgained 374-313. South Carolina went 7-for-15 on third down. On the final scoring drive from South Carolina, offsides and facemask penalties propelled the Gamecocks down the field. Alabama also turned it over twice as Milroe played a poor game throughout.
A week after the defense looked helpless to stop the ‘Dores, Alabama’s offensive line played like loose leaf paper against the Gamecocks.
Alabama avoided the loss, which is important. A loss to Tennessee or LSU on the road wouldn’t necessarily eliminate Alabama from an at-large bid to the CFP. But given the recent run of play, it’s fair to question whether there are multiple losses remaining on Alabama’s schedule.
Kalen DeBoer has work to do.
After beating Georgia, Alabama was -1200 to make the CFP at ESPN Bet. FPI gave Alabama a 71.3% chance to make the CFP prior to Saturday’s game. That number is likely to drop after escaping South Carolina, but probably not by much.
Alabama avoided disaster. But disaster is always just a week away in the SEC, and Alabama showed on Saturday it is ripe for more.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
