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Alabama will travel to Ole Miss on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS) under conditions no one saw coming.
For the first time in over a decade, the Crimson Tide (7-2, 4-2 SEC) has dropped 2 games before Thanksgiving. As a 2-loss team ranked No. 9 and no longer in control of its own destiny in the SEC, UA appears to be out of the College Football Playoff picture – barring an upset-filled, chaotic finish to the 2022 CFB season.
Lane Kiffin’s No. 11 Ole Miss squad (8-1, 4-1 SEC) is behind Alabama in the CFP rankings, but above the Tide in the SEC West standings. If LSU were to stumble against Arkansas or Texas A&M, an Ole Miss team with just 1 conference loss could make it to Atlanta.
In Kiffin’s tenure, UA has defeated the Rebels 63-48 and 42-21.
Alabama vs. Ole Miss: Prediction and preview
It isn’t hard to see why AP voters and Playoff selection committee members have Alabama ranked higher than Ole Miss heading into Saturday’s showdown.
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FEI Ratings still have a 7-2 Alabama team No. 3 in defensive efficiency, No. 11 in offensive efficiency and the No. 3 overall team by the numbers. Ole Miss, meanwhile, checks in at No. 8 (offense), No. 67 (defense) and No. 16 (overall).
Using traditional offensive stats, Alabama rates higher than Ole Miss in scoring offense (41.8 to 37.4 points per game), passing offense (280.3 to 227.4 yards per game) and yards per play (6.88 to 6.65).
The Alabama defense has been better than Ole Miss when it comes to scoring (18.3 to 21.6 points allowed per game), yards per carry (3.01 to 3.98) and passing yards per attempt (5.8 to 6.8).
Ole Miss notably enters Saturday with the more productive ground game. The Rebels lead the conference in rushing attempts per game (47.78) and rushing yards per contest (267.22) to move the ball on the ground at a rate of 5.59 yards per carry.
This season, Alabama’s defense has kept all but 3 teams below 3 yards per carry. Arkansas ran 51 times, more than any other Crimson Tide opponent, for 187 yards. Tennessee produced at a higher clip, gaining 182 yards on 39 carries. LSU had 34 rushes for 185 yards (5.44 yards per carry), with QB Jayden Daniels leading the way (18 carries, 95 yards).
Stopping the Ole Miss ground game means containing the Rebels’ high-powered backfield featuring Quinshon Judkins (180 carries, 1,034 yards, 13 TD) and Zach Evans (108 yards, 680 yards, 7 TD).
Will Alabama have the mental focus to execute at a high enough level?
The Crimson Tide has not yet been eliminated from an appearance in the SEC Championship Game, but it’s hard for Alabama to count on LSU losing to both Arkansas and Texas A&M in the final 3 weeks. There’s no doubt this Tide team will get up for the Iron Bowl to end the season. One week after a crushing rivalry loss, though, can UA still get up for a road game that no longer carries the same importance?
The last time Alabama was in a situation like this was in November 2010. No. 11 UA defeated No. 17 Mississippi State 30-10 coming off of a close loss at LSU. Saban, though, is dealing with a different animal this week, as the 2010 team did not have players who have played in back-to-back national championship games. It also wasn’t the “business decision” era of college football with the transfer portal and in-season opt-outs to stay healthy for the NFL Draft.
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CLAIM OFFERThe double-digit spread feels a bit high considering Ole Miss’ mindset advantages. For over a year, Kiffin has wanted to make up for the “popcorn” faceplant. Ole Miss has more to play for Saturday, with the home crowd providing a boost. As an added bonus, the Rebels get to embrace being double-digit underdogs.
Earlier this week, Kiffin reminded the media that the Crimson Tide was 2 plays away from avoiding its 2 losses. Also true: Alabama was just a couple of plays away from picking up losses to Texas and Texas A&M.
Ole Miss is an attractive pick to cover, with a seemingly decent shot at winning outright. With Alabama’s defensive strengths, though, it’s still a bit hard to pull the trigger on the Rebels scoring enough to win, unless the Tide plays mentally checked out.
Prediction: Alabama 27 Ole Miss 24
Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.
