Alabama vs. Tennessee is shaping up to be a tight battle between 2 programs with College Football Playoff aspirations in 2024.Â
Both the Tide and Vols have unexpectedly dropped games so far this season, adding to the importance of this game. The loser of this game may be on the outside-looking-in of CFP discussions moving forward.
Let’s breakdown some historical betting trends, advanced stats and some other useful data about these teams:
Alabama vs. Tennessee betting lines
Lines via DraftKings:
Spread: Alabama -3 (-112) | Tennessee +3 (-108)
Total: Over 57 points (-110) | Under 57 points (-110)
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Betting trends to know for Alabama
Alabama is…
- 3-3 against the spread in 2024
- 1-1 against the spread on the road in 2024
- 2-3 against the spread as a favorite in 2024
Betting trends to know for Tennessee
Tennessee is…
- 4-2 against the spread in 2024
- 2-1 against the spread at home in 2024
- 1-4 against the spread as a home underdog in the Josh Heupel era
Advanced Stats previewÂ
Success rate will be the most important stat referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is “successful” depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here’s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed “successful” depending on the context:
- 1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage
- 2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage
- 3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage
Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.
Let’s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:
Rushing success rate
- Alabama rushing offense success rate: 44.2%Â
- Tennessee rushing defense success rate: 29.8%Â
Alabama has had a good, but not great running game to start the year. Jam Miller has been Bama’s most effective running back so far this season, posting a 45% success rate through 7 weeks according to Game On Paper. Miller is also averaging a team-best 7.1 yards per carry. Justice Haynes has also had a big role in the running game, albeit at a lesser efficiency (28% success rate). Jalen Milroe has also been a significant part of Alabama’s rushing attack this season. He’s been productive both on designed runs and in scrambling situations. Explosive runs have been the strength of this part of Alabama’s offense. The Tide rank first in the SEC in rushing plays of 20+ yards (14) and 30+ yards (7).
However, Alabama will have its hands full going up against an elite rushing defense in Tennessee. The Vols have held opponents to a sub-30% rushing success rate this season — one of only 3 teams to do so. UT’s defense has a stuff rate in the 98th percentile of all teams, according to Game on Paper. This is clearly the strength of Tennessee’s statistical profile going into this Week 8 matchup.
- Tennessee rushing offense success rate: 43.3%
- Alabama rushing defense success rate: 37.8%Â
Tennessee’s backfield has 2 significant contributors: Dylan Sampson and DeSean Bishop. Sampson has earned the majority of touches overall — increasingly-so in SEC play. He already has 15 rushing touchdowns on the year while averaging nearly 6 yards per carry. Sampson is a huge threat as he leads the SEC in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and attempts per game. His success rate, per Game On Paper, currently sits at 46% — a very respectable number.
Alabama’s rushing defense has been great to start the year. That success rate may not look particularly-elite, but the Crimson Tide have done an excellent job of limiting explosive plays on the ground. They’ve allowed just 3 rushing plays of 20+ yards and zero plays of 30+ yards so far this season. When you limit explosive plays to that degree with a rush defense success rate under 40%, the results are typically going to be very strong.
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Passing success rate
- Alabama passing offense success rate: 51.8%Â
- Tennessee passing defense success rate: 40.7%
Jalen Milroe has been one of the bright spots of Alabama’s season so far. Aside from a couple unfortunate turnovers in the Vanderbilt game, it’s hard to find too much fault in what Milroe has provided so far this season. He’s averaging career-highs in yards-per-attempt and passer efficiency rating in 2024. He’s also on pace to set new personal bests for passing touchdowns, passing yards, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Alabama has an elite offense across the board, and a lot of that is due to Milroe’s partnership with coach Kalen DeBoer.Â
While Tennessee’s offense has been a bit underwhelming this season, its defense has mostly met expectations. A 40% passing defense success rate isn’t quite elite, but it’s certainly good enough to get the job done if paired with excellence in other areas. Tennessee is 6th amongst SEC teams in pass defense efficiency rating and has only allowed 3 passing touchdowns on the season. If there’s one area where Tennessee can improve, it’s in the turnover department. Tennessee is tied for last in the SEC with only 3 interceptions all season. To help make up for that, however, Tennessee has forced an SEC-best 16 fumbles (recovering 6) so far in 2024.
- Tennessee passing offense success rate: 48.6%Â
- Alabama passing defense success rate: 36.9%Â
Tennessee’s passing offense looked like one of the best in the country through the first few weeks of the season. However, things have changed pretty rapidly as Nico Iamaleava has been faced with tougher competition. Tennessee’s passing success rate for the year is 48.6%, but it’s sitting at just 39.5% since the Vols began SEC play in Week 4. That’s a pretty drastic difference that has been reflected in UT’s offensive output over its first 3 games of SEC play.
However, you could make the exact same observation about Alabama’s pass defense. The Tide’s pass defense success rate is a horrific 56.2% since Week 4. That stretch includes the Georgia, Vanderbilt and South Carolina games — none of whom are exactly juggernauts on offense. This is perhaps the biggest difference between this year’s Alabama team and what the Tide were a year ago under Nick Saban. In 2023, Alabama’s pass defense success rate finished in the 94th percentile nationally. So far this season, Alabama looks like it may have one of the worst pass defenses in the SEC.
1 other key: Will Tennessee’s explosive plays return?
The college football world was fired up about Tennessee’s offense in September after the Vols uncorked 69 plays of 10+ yards against a trio of overmatched nonconference opponents. That level of explosiveness has not translated at all to SEC play, where Tennessee only has just 30 such plays. And as mentioned above, Tennessee’s passing success rate has also tanked over the last few weeks, which explains the difficulty Tennessee has had in finding the end zone.
At almost any other point in the last 2 decades or so, a matchup against Alabama would not have been a welcomed reality for a team with a floundering offense. But Alabama has struggled mightily on that end of the field this season, as detailed above. That’s been particularly true in the passing game. Alabama has already allowed 53 plays of 10+ passing yards so far this season — for context, it allowed just 98 such plays in 14 games in 2023.
Two units — Tennessee’s passing game and Alabama’s secondary — that received plenty of hype entering the year are now just barely holding on for the third Saturday in October. Whichever of those units plays better in this matchup is very likely to end up winning this game.
Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story exclude garbage-time statistics and are derived from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Trends are via BetIQ.Â
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
