Analyzing College Football Playoff race heading into 2021 season
By Jim Tomlin
Published:
Seven seasons into the College Football Playoff, we have enough data to draw some conclusions. We undertook painstaking research and dove deep into the numbers until reaching the following conclusion:
If you think going into the season that Alabama and Clemson are going to the CFP, you’re probably right.
Wow, that was a stretch, huh?
Even a casual perusal of the CFP era, circa 2014-2020, will tell you why.
Each year, there are two semifinals and a final in the CFP. After 7 years, there have been 21 Playoff games. Alabama has won 8. Clemson has won 6. The entire rest of the FBS combined, 128 other teams in all, has combined for 7. Alabama has participated in 6 of the 7 CFPs. So has Clemson. The past 6 CFP Championship Games have involved one of those teams; 3 of those title games featured the Crimson Tide facing the Tigers.
So yeah, those 2 favorites are the 2 favorites for a reason.
The only other program to win more than 2 Playoff games is Ohio State, the 4-time defending Big Ten champion. The Buckeyes have made 4 CFP appearances to match Big 12 kingpin Oklahoma. The Sooners have been remarkably consistent with the only knock on them (and it’s a significant knock) being that they are 0-4 in Playoff games.
So yeah, those 2 programs are the preseason picks to join the Tigers and Tide in the CFP for a reason.
For the purposes of this preseason look at CFP contenders for 2021 (we’re going to ignore the Week 0 results) they are listed in order of the Associated Press preseason poll. We’ll continue to use that as our guidepost until the first CFP rankings come out later in the season.
Alabama
The Crimson Tide lost a revered quarterback when Tua Tagovailoa left after the 2019 season. All they did was call upon Mac Jones, who threw for more yards than Tagovailoa did in 2018 (his only full season) and almost as many touchdowns in 2 fewer games. Jaylen Waddle, one of the best receivers in America, got hurt and missed most of the 2020 season. Tag-team partner DeVonta Smith went on to win the Heisman Trophy. This is just the level where Alabama lives, folks. The names will change again in 2021, but challenge them at your peril.
Oklahoma
The Sooners have one thing the other 3 juggernauts at the top don’t have: A returning quarterback whose productivity is a known quantity. Spencer Rattler had some shaky moments during Oklahoma’s 1-2 start in 2020, but during the Sooners’ season-ending 8-game winning streak, he had 18 touchdown passes to 3 interceptions. Perhaps even a better sign for Boomer Sooner was finishing No. 29 nationally in scoring defense, the program’s best finish in that category since 2015 (also 29th).
Clemson
Yes, the Tigers lost generational quarterback Trevor Lawrence. But Clemson gave the nation a tantalizing glimpse of what’s next in DJ Uiagalelei’s two spot starts in 2020, including his 439 yards passing in a losing effort against Notre Dame. So he’s a bit less of a mystery than the starters at Alabama and Ohio State. Plus, coach Dabo Swinney and defensive coordinator Brent Venables simply reload that unit every year; Clemson has a really good case for calling itself “D-Line U.”
Ohio State
The Buckeyes have perhaps more questions to answer than any other contender, starting at quarterback, where freshman CJ Stroud tries to fill the huge hole left by Justin Fields. The entire starting linebacker trio also moved on. But Ryan Day has picked up where Urban Meyer left off and OSU returns perhaps the best wide receiver tandem in America, Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. OSU has a tricky B1G opener on Thursday at Minnesota, then welcomes Oregon on Sept. 11 for a tasty nonconference matchup.
Georgia
It’s always the question throughout the Peach State: Is this the year Georgia topples Alabama? The pieces seem to be in place and we will know a lot more about the Bulldogs after their opener — Sept. 4 against Clemson in the best nonconference game of the entire 2021 season. The good news is that even if the Dawgs lose, there’s no way that knocks them out of national championship contention. The better news is that a win starts people thinking that the answer to our opening question might be “yes.”
Texas A&M
The toughest division in college football has become even more intriguing with the rise of the Aggies. Texas A&M’s explosive entry into the SEC in 2012 (victory in Tuscaloosa, 11-2 finish, Johnny Manziel takes Heisman) turned out to be a false dawn. Last season’s rise to a No. 4 finish in the final AP poll, A&M’s highest since winning the 1939 national title, feels like a more permanent sign of things to come. The Aggies are also breaking in a new quarterback in Haynes King but are loaded everywhere else.
Iowa State
If I had told you at this time last year that the Cyclones would be on this list, you would have thought I was dreaming. Yes, ISU was coming off of 3 straight winning seasons and coach Matt Campbell was building a nice little program. But a Big 12 title game appearance? The first major bowl victory in school history? Entering 2021 with 3 first-team picks on the AP preseason All-America team? If the Cyclones can get over the hump Sept. 11 by snapping a 5-game losing streak to rival Iowa, look out.
Cincinnati
Here we go with this conversation again. Will the CFP ever invite a Group of 5 team to a 4-team Playoff? Didn’t we go through this, with these very same Bearcats, during their undefeated 2020 regular season? We did. But there’s reason to believe the American Athletic Conference power could finally shatter the Power 5’s glass ceiling. Actually 2 reasons: Sept. 18 at Indiana and, especially, Oct. 2 at Notre Dame. If the Bearcats win both and dominate the AAC, the conversation would no longer sound ridiculous.
Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish are almost the forgotten member of the 2020 CFP quartet. That feels strange for a program with its own TV network and more national championship tradition than anybody not named Alabama. But, like a lot of other contenders, Notre Dame is replacing a proven veteran at quarterback with Ian Book gone — in fact, ND is 123rd in the country in returning production, according to ESPN. Of course, Alabama is 120th; I guess we’ll just ignore this stat when we want to, eh?
North Carolina
The Tar Heels are all about their quarterback, more than maybe any team in the country. As Sam Howell goes, so goes North Carolina. That’s a good thing for UNC; the junior has 7,227 passing yards and 68 TDs with just 14 INTs in 2 seasons as the starter. With Notre Dame’s one-year residency in the ACC having ended, UNC is the biggest threat to Clemson in the league, though the Tar Heels visit the Fighting Irish on Oct. 30. But Clemson isn’t on the schedule — at least not in the regular season.
Longtime newspaper veteran Jim Tomlin is a copy editor and writer with SaturdayDownSouth.com.
