Ad Disclosure
Arkansas must overcome brutal schedule to climb another SEC West rung
Published:
If you skipped Arkansas’ non-conference schedule in 2015, you’d think the Razorbacks made a big leap forward.
Perhaps that’s the case regardless. Coach Bret Bielema turned out a winning SEC record after the Hogs went 4-20 in conference play from 2012-14.
Pesky September losses to Toledo and Texas Tech may not have spoiled the season — that’s a strong modifier for a team that still managed its best win total since ’11 — but they changed the complexion of what otherwise would’ve been a top 25 finish.
Bielema has been a godsend for Arkansas. Not so much because he’s revolutionary as a football coach. As he noted in a recent webisode of “Being Bret Bielema” while riding behind a police escort, “Probably a lot of Arkansas fans appreciate (that I’m) watching motorcycles instead of riding motorcycles.”
One of the most likable college football head coaches, Bielema also has earned a reputation as a hard-nosed disciplinarian who glorifies offensive linemen and finds it “borderline erotic” when the Razorbacks can physically dominate an opponent. National media members have reveled in the stark culture change from the Bobby Petrino and John L. Smith eras.
On the field, the team is at an interesting juncture. Will Arkansas continue to improve, forcing its way into the top 25 and into legitimate contention in the SEC West? Or was the 2015 season the start of a plateau?
Last season gave us some clues as to the team’s potential. The Razorbacks entered last fall 0-7 in one-possession games with Bielema as coach. The ’15 team went 3-3 in those games.
The Hogs also edged No. 19 Ole Miss in Oxford and clubbed No. 9 LSU in Baton Rouge after beating both teams at home in ’14. Of late the Rebels and Tigers have been perceived as the SEC’s biggest challengers to the Alabama dynasty. Arkansas holds a four-game winning streak against them. The Razorbacks won the head-to-head tiebreaker with LSU for third in the West Division last year. If any team is going to crack that triumvirate this fall, it’s probably them.
If Bielema and the Hogs are to punch their way into that class, it’ll require navigating yet another brutal schedule.
Even getting to SEC play unbeaten will be tough. September features a road game against a TCU team that has been competing for Big 12 titles the last few seasons as well as a feisty Louisiana Tech team that won nine games last year. It’s at least as difficult of a 1-2 non-conference schedule as Texas Tech and Toledo presented last year.
Then, still in September, there’s a neutral-site game against Texas A&M, which owns a four-game winning streak against Arkansas — including back-to-back brutal overtime wins.
Get through that stretch unblemished and the Hogs will have every opportunity to edge closer to the top of the SEC. The team may play its toughest four SEC games at Razorback Stadium: Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU may all be preseason top 15 teams, while Florida is the defending SEC East champion.
Road games against Auburn, Mississippi State and Missouri hardly represent three guaranteed wins.
That’s the main thrust of what makes this schedule so tough. Outside of Texas State (Sept. 17) and Alcorn State (Oct. 1), there are no guaranteed wins. There’s no Vanderbilt or Kentucky on the crossover schedule, and no BYU as the requisite “power conference” opponent.
According to ESPN, Arkansas faces a whopping 10 programs that made bowl games in 2015 — second-most in the country. The team’s 2016 opponents finished last season a combined 104-52, the second-highest win percentage among all 128 FBS teams. Five opponents finished the season ranked in the Associated Press Top 25: No. 1 Alabama, No. 7 TCU, No. 10 Ole Miss, No. 15 LSU and No. 25 Florida.
Slice it any way you like, and the degree of difficulty remains excruciating. Especially for the offense, which must replace three-year starting quarterback Brandon Allen, standouts Alex Collins and Hunter Henry as well as some effective offensive linemen.
The last two seasons, Arkansas played like a locomotive that needed to build up some steam during the early contests. That’s wonderful when it represents a marked improvement, as it did the last two seasons. But it’s not going to be enough to lift the program back to an elite level.
There’s no magic line of demarcation for “merely good” vs. “real contender.” But a 6-2 record in the SEC usually represents something special. Arkansas was just one overtime away from that last season.
Couple that with an unbeaten non-conference schedule and the program surely will be embraced as nationally relevant. But, given the weekly challenges on this team’s 2016 schedule, doing more is going to take both superb player development and continued improvement in close games.
Arkansas can drop a game to an Alabama or LSU and still make that ascension. Most of all it needs to find a way to avoid losses against solid bowl teams who aren’t quite worthy of a top 15 ranking. Beat every Louisiana Tech and Texas A&M on the schedule and this team will have a real chance at finishing the season as one of the SEC’s best.
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
