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Each week, we’ll take a look at the credible and not-so-credible threats to freeze-out the SEC from the College Football Playoff.
With only two weeks left in the regular season for most conferences, many teams’ hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff are gone.
When the College Football Playoff Committee releases its playoff rankings Tuesday night, everyone will have a better idea of where the current contenders stand. But right now, there are 13 teams that have a decent chance to earn one of those four spots.
Scanning the good guys: Alabama’s defensive line is scary good. The Crimson Tide defense sacked Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott nine times in Alabama’s 31-6 road win. The win means that Alabama will stay near the top of the College Football Playoff rankings.
With Florida’s win over South Carolina on Saturday, it is still alive for a spot in the College Football Playoff. If the Gators win the rest of their regular-season games and knock off Alabama in the SEC title game, they would have the strongest case of any one-loss team to be in the Playoff.
After LSU’s 31-14 loss to Arkansas, the Tigers have no chance of making the playoffs.
Now for the bad guys.
THREAT LEVEL: FROSTBITE WARNING
Below zero degrees. Could lose a finger if you’re stuck outside too long.
Clemson: Its 37-27 win over Syracuse wasn’t pretty, but Clemson found a way to win. The Tigers are now 10-0, and if they stay undefeated, they are in the playoff.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes got another strong performance from their defense in their 28-3 victory over Illinois. Now they just have to defeat No.13 Michigan State at home next week, No. 14 Michigan on the road on Nov. 28 and win the Big Ten Conference championship game to guarantee themselves a spot in the playoff. It will be a challenge, but Ohio State has enough talent on both sides of the ball to run the table.
THREAT LEVEL: FREEZING RAIN
It’s not a blizzard, but it’s still likely to force public schools in the South to close.
Notre Dame: With its win over Wake Forest on Saturday, Notre Dame improved to 9-1 on the season. This team keeps losing players to injury (RB C.J. Prosise, WR Equanimeous St. Brown, LB James Onwualu), but it keeps finding ways to win. The issue that Notre Dame faces right now is that its best wins are against Navy, Pittsburgh and Southern Cal. With Stanford and Temple both losing this week, even if Notre Dame wins the rest of its regular season games, the Irish might not a resume to match a one-loss Big 12 champion.
Iowa: The Hawkeyes are 10-0. Their running back, LeShun Daniels Jr., ran 26 times for 195 yards and three TDs in their win over Minnesota. Nothing fazes this team. They are cruising toward a division title. Then the Hawkeyes should run into Ohio State.
Oklahoma State: The Cowboys rallied from a 17-point deficit to defeat Iowa State and remain unbeaten. Now they have to beat No. 6 Baylor and No. 12 Oklahoma at home to win the Big 12 title and earn a spot in the playoffs.
Oklahoma: The Sooners stunned Baylor 44-34 on the road and put a serious dent into the Bears’ College Football Playoff chances. Besides Alabama, Oklahoma is playing the best football in the country right now. QB Baker Mayfield accounted for 346 total yards and four TDs against Baylor. RB Samaje Perine rushed for 166 yards and two TDs. WR Sterling Shepard was unstoppable with 14 catches for 177 yards and two TDs. If Oklahoma beats TCU and Oklahoma State in its final two regular-season games, the playoff committee would find it much easier to overlook the Sooners’ loss against Texas.
Michigan State: With its win over Maryland, Michigan State still remains in control of its Big Ten destiny. But will QB Connor Cook be healthy enough to throw the football effectively next Saturday against Ohio State?
THREAT LEVEL: COLD RAIN
It’s miserable but manageable.
North Carolina: With the Pac-12 essentially being eliminated from the College Football Playoff, North Carolina has risen to take its place as a threat to make the playoff. UNC would need to run the table and knock off No. 1 Clemson in the ACC title game to have a chance, but it’s certainly possible. If North Carolina beat Clemson, it would be able to show the committee that it beat the team that defeated Notre Dame.
Baylor: The College Football Playoff Committee was already down on Baylor for its weak strength of schedule. With its loss to Oklahoma, Baylor will move even further down the rankings. But if the Bears can get a win next week against Oklahoma State, they still have a chance.
TCU: With its close win against Kansas, TCU’s Big 12 title hopes are still alive. TCU coach Gary Patterson said that star QB Trevone Boykin, who sprained his ankle against Kansas, will probably play in TCU’s game next Saturday against Oklahoma. That’s good news because TCU will need him if it wants to pull off the upset.
Houston: The Cougars won an elimination game of sorts against Memphis. If only three other teams are unbeaten, they have an argument.
THREAT LEVEL: SUNNY
All you need is some sunshine to brighten your day.
Stanford and Utah: No. 7 Stanford lost at home to Oregon on Saturday and No.10 Utah lost in double overtime to Arizona. The Pac-12 is now guaranteed to have at least a conference champion with at least two losses while the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 still have undefeated teams.
Chase Erickson is a contributing writer for SDS. He covers Tennessee. Follow him on Twitter @ChaseDownField.
