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Each week, we’ll take a look at the credible and not-so-credible threats to rain on the SEC’s playoff aspirations.
It’s early, but that doesn’t mean we can’t at least try to look into the crystal ball. I don’t mean the BCS crystal ball, the one that seems like ancient history.
The top three in the AP Poll is No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Michigan State and No. 3 Ole Miss. Frankly, the Rebels should be ahead of the Spartans. They’re only separated by two marquee wins: Ole Miss won at the No. 2 team in the country, while Michigan State won at home against the No. 7.
TCU rounds out the top four. LSU has an argument to be No. 5 or even higher based on who’s ahead of them. No. 3 TCU (tied with Ole Miss), No. 5 Baylor and No. 7 Georgia haven’t recorded wins over ranked teams.
As of right now, the only thing we can comfortably say is that Ohio State or Michigan State will be in, and the ACC is looking like the conference most likely to be left out. Anything can happen in the SEC, Big 12 and Pac-12.
Scanning The Good Guys: Ole Miss and LSU earned early-season respect with their performances on the big stage. The Rebels’ defense is complimented by a playmaking offense, while the Tigers’ defense is complimented by a force of nature. Georgia fans must feel great about what they saw out of the quarterback position. Entering Week 3, the fear was that the QB position would be the Achilles heel for the boys from Athens. Instead, Greyson Lambert has a lights-out performance, going 24 of 25, 330 yards, 3 touchdowns and no picks in a record-breaking performance.
Now for the bad guys.
THREAT LEVEL: TSUNAMI
Severe risk of rain
Ohio State: While the Buckeyes have an easy road, they can’t just assume that winning out will get them in the playoff. Several subpar performances like the one Ohio State had in a 20-13 win over Northern Illinois could be costly later. However, if all the Buckeyes need to worry about is not having too many less-than-impressive wins against easy competition, their chances of making the playoff are good.
Michigan State: The Spartans have a slightly tougher schedule on their collision course with the Buckeyes, going on the road to face Michigan and Nebraska. Similar to the Buckeyes, Sparty will need to fight complacency. That didn’t seem to be a problem on Saturday for Connor Cook, who went 15 of 23 for 247 yards, four touchdowns and no picks against Air Force following their big win over No. 7 Oregon.
TCU: The Horned Frogs’ offense looked lethal on Saturday, racking up over 700 yards. Trevone Boykin accounted for over 500 yards and six touchdowns, Aaron Green ran for 164 yards and two touchdowns and Josh Doctson caught five passes for 171 yards and two touchdowns. TCU opens its Big 12 schedule this week at Texas Tech, but its chances of making the playoff will likely rest on how the Horned Frogs do in their last two games at Oklahoma and vs. Baylor.
THREAT LEVEL: HURRICANE
High risk of rain
Oregon: No Vernon Adams, no problem for the Ducks in a 61-28 win over Georgia State on Saturday. Oregon may have one loss, but so does USC after this week. The Ducks are still the favorite to win the Pac-12, and with the ACC looking as weak as it does right now, a one-loss Pac-12 champion won’t be left out of the playoff.
Baylor: Art Briles’ Bears got a much-needed bye week before their game against Rice (no, seriously) . Baylor didn’t play up to its potential in wins over SMU and Lamar, allowing 21 points in the first half of each of those games. We’ll learn a lot more about the Bears against the Red Raiders on Oct. 3, but it’s a good bet that they’ll light up the scoreboard against whoever they play. You’d figure going undefeated with wins over TCU and Oklahoma would get the Big 12 in this season.
Oklahoma: A lot of that applies to Oklahoma as well. The Sooners’ stock can get a boost from the SEC if Tennessee is ranked at the end of the season and competing in the SEC East.
THREAT LEVEL: THUNDERSTORM
Significant risk of rain
UCLA/Arizona: The winner of the Pac-12 South, the next-best division in college football after the SEC West, is a threat. UCLA survived BYU on Saturday to set up a key matchup with Arizona this week. The winner of that showdown has a chance to pick up quality wins before potentially playing in a conference title game against a highly ranked Oregon squad for late-season love.
THREAT LEVEL: DRIZZLE
General risk of rain
Notre Dame: The Irish have made things interesting as DeShone Kizer has helped the team overcome the injury to QB Malik Zaire. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has picked up respectable wins vs. Texas, at Virginia and vs. Georgia Tech. However, I’m a firm believer that conference championship games have a major impact on getting the playoff nod. Being an independent hurts the Irish just like it hurts the Big 12.
Florida State/Clemson: Both of these teams are in the same boat. They’ll likely have to go undefeated and win the ACC title to make it in over an SEC team. The next two weeks (at home against No. 6 Notre and No. 20 Georgia Tech) will test Clemson’s ability to do so, and Florida State’s offense certainly didn’t look up to the challenge in the Seminoles’ 14-0 win over Boston College on Friday.
THREAT LEVEL: CLOUDY
Low risk of rain
Louisville: Can you guess the only two Power 5 schools that don’t have a win yet? You probably guessed Kansas, but did you guess Louisville? And the Cardinals don’t get any kudos for losing each of their games by one possession.
UTSA: The Larry Coker-led Roadrunners are also 0-3. Coker has come a long way from going 12-0 and winning a national championship in 2001 at Miami (FL). He’s at UTSA, a school that just joined the FBS in 2012, and he’s been the coach there since. The school didn’t hesitate to schedule three Power 5 teams to start the season, a very respectable thing to do. I’m just not sure about a three-loss Conference USA team over Vanderbilt, let alone an SEC champion.
New Mexico State: The Aggies may have the best case for being the worst FBS team. New Mexico State managed to make Florida’s offense look like a Pac-12 offense in a season-opening 61-13 loss before losing a Stupor Bowl to Georgia State and another contest to UTEP on Saturday. New Mexico State is on a 13-game losing streak, the longest active streak in the FBS. The Aggies are hopeful to make the playoffs, just not these Aggies.
Born and raised in Gainesville, Talal joined SDS in 2015 after spending 2 years in Bristol as an ESPN researcher. Previously, Talal worked at The Gainesville Sun.
