They all count the same.
That is the mantra from all football coaches, from the Pop Warner ranks to the NFL. All wins count the same, and all losses count the same – with said phrase usually being uttered to keep from thumping chests too hard or digging graves too deep.
They all count the same.
It’s true in the world of college football, too, where precisely half the teams in the country will be undefeated and the other half will be winless after their first games of 2025.
They all count the same.
Right?
If that’s true, then why does Aug. 29 at 7 p.m. local time in Waco, Texas, feel like a 60-minute referendum on the entire Auburn Tigers season and beleaguered head coach Hugh Freeze?
For one, taking on the Big 12 Bears represents a departure from the recent norm of cupcake opener scheduling for Auburn. The past 4 years – 2 under Freeze and 2 under Bryan Harsin – saw Auburn roll up 58.5 points per game in 4 home victories against powerhouses in Alabama A&M, Massachusetts, Mercer and Akron.
Awesome, that’s 4-0 in Week 1 the past 4 years. But when the resulting campaigns end up with more losses than wins (5-7 in 2024, 6-7 in 2023, 5-7 in 2022 and 6-7 in 2021), what good was scheduling those marshmallows in the first place?
Last year, of course, there was precisely 0 cause for impending concern. That’s what happens when you schedule Alabama A&M to venture to Jordan-Hare Stadium, a game that cost Auburn $525,000 but resulted in a 73-3 victory. Of course, it meant precisely zilch the next week when Cal came to the Loveliest Village on the Plains and walked away with a 21-14 victory.
Quality of openers aside, the upcoming Friday night in Waco will serve as a national-audience report card on just how much Freeze has moved this Auburn program forward since missing out on a coveted Birmingham Bowl bid last season. Oddsmakers on multiple continents have Freeze among the early contenders to call mid-season moving companies, and a setback to Baylor would undoubtedly throw more smart money that direction. (Currently, BetMGM has Auburn as -1.5 favorites in Waco.)
Freeze raised an eyebrow or two with a refreshing bit of honesty by saying the Auburn coaching staff has done more than a bit of advance game-planning work on Baylor during the summer – something that likely happens every offseason in every big-time football building but is barely spoken out loud.
“We started back in June, trying to get a head start on our first couple of games,” Freeze told reporters on Monday. “So, we feel like that we’re in a decent spot.”
Part of the reason Freeze and Auburn are able to do the advance grinding is that Baylor has a wealth of talent returning from an 8-5 campaign in 2024.
“We’ve done our research on what the additions are,” Freeze said. “You’re not quite sure exactly how they fit into their depth chart right now with the number of returners that they have.
“Certainly, it added value to them in some ways, but really, we’re not going to change a whole lot offensively from what we’ve done in the past, and I doubt [Baylor coach] Dave [Aranda] is gonna change a whole lot of what has been really good to him.”
The Auburn-Baylor game, incidentally, is a bit of a departure for the Bears as well – given they have scheduled Tarleton State and Texas State in their past 2 season openers. Problem is, even that backfired on Baylor in 2023 – as Texas State came to Waco and stunned the home squad 42-31 that served as the jumping-off point of a dismal 3-9 Baylor campaign.
Would a loss in Waco spell doom for Auburn? Much of it would depend on how a loss would look – because if the Bears blow out the Tigers, Freeze might want to consider missing the flight home. If Auburn loses a squeaker against a quality Big 12 team that has the tools to be competitive in 2025, Freeze and Co. could certainly build on the positives for paycheck home games against Ball State and South Alabama.
An Auburn victory on the road, of course, would be more than a little bit of validation that Freeze has righted the ship – which coupled with a couple of recent recruiting commitment victories would add plenty of wind in the sails of a ship that hasn’t exactly been seaworthy with any consistency.
They all count the same, of course. A win is just a win for Auburn at Baylor, and a loss is just a loss. But the 60-minute litmus test awaiting the Tigers and their embattled coach on Aug. 29 could well be the closest you get to the result counting a little bit more… one way or the other.
An APSE national award-winning writer and editor, David Wasson has almost four decades of experience in the print journalism business in Florida and Alabama. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times and several national magazines and websites. He also hosts Gulfshore Sports with David Wasson, weekdays from 3-5 pm across Southwest Florida and on FoxSportsFM.com. His Twitter handle: @JustDWasson.
