Selection Sunday came, sowed discord and disruption, and went, leaving us with a 12-team College Football Playoff bracket that looks wonderfully balanced with tradition-rich titans and new-age monsters.
The first round of the CFP begins on Dec. 19. We’re still more than a week away from the action officially kicking off. But, bettors have a ton of options to get in on the fun early.
College Football Playoff picks
You can find a breakdown of the first-round action here. Below are 3 broader CFP-related bets to make right now.
Oregon vs. James Madison first-half spread
Oregon is a much more talented team. The Ducks are fifth in the 247Sports Talent Composite. The Dukes are 127th. Depth and athleticism matter in this tournament, and Oregon has major advantages in both categories.
James Madison has rolled this season thanks to an excellent defense that stuffs teams at a high rate (6.5 tackles for loss per game). The Dukes win on early downs to set up longer down-and-distance situations later. They’ve been able to manage a high rate of explosives allowed because they generate quick-change stops.
On offense, they’re efficient when they need to be, but they’re explosive when they have to be. Running back Wayne Knight has 9 runs of at least 30 yards this season. Quarterback Alonza Barnett III has 7 runs of 20-plus yards and 17 passes of 30-plus yards. Huge gains of 50-plus pushed JMU over Washington State and then Troy late in the season.
That kind of profile has been enough to overwhelm a schedule that can easily be pushed over. According to ESPN’s FPI, the Dukes played a schedule this season that ranked 123rd out of 136 FBS teams.
In the Playoff, against the best the sport has to offer, a reliance on splash plays is a recipe for disaster. Against the 2 best defenses JMU faced this season (Louisville and Wazzu), the Dukes had a 58-yard run, a 68-yard pass, and a 3.6 yards-per-play clip on the other 126 scrimmage plays they ran.
Oregon, after being decimated by injuries late in the regular season, should be healthier. Early on at home, there will be plenty of energy to feed off of. A couple of big plays from the offense to pop the proverbial roof off and Oregon could be off to the races. This could turn into a 21-3 game in a hurry.
Bet Oregon -10.5 in the first half (-118) via BetMGM
Oregon to make the semifinals
If there’s a team to take advantage of Texas Tech, it’s Oregon, whose completeness on offense and ability to short-circuit other offenses make it not just a threat to advance in this Playoff but to win the whole thing.
It feels a little like déjà vu with the Ducks, who looked like the favorite to win it all last year before laying an egg in the Rose Bowl loss to Ohio State. The coaching staff should remember that experience and use it as a motivating factor for this year’s group leading into a potential quarterfinal game with Texas Tech.
Last season, the Buckeyes got hot in the first round and rolled right over a team that had been sitting idle. All 4 teams that had a first-round bye last season lost. Part of that was due to the seeding structure. We’ll find out this year how much of a factor rust actually was.
But, more than anything, you look at the potential quarterfinal matchups, and it comes down to trust. You’d trust Indiana over whoever wins in Norman. You’d trust Ohio State over the winner in College Station. And you’d trust Georgia over the Lane Kiffin-less Rebels, whom the Dawgs already beat once earlier this year.
I trust Oregon more than Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders have one of the best defensive fronts in football — if not the best — and in that way, they feel a bit like the mid-BCS-era SEC teams that leaned heavily on suffocating defenses. Is the offense good enough to beat an elite team if it has to? In 3 games against the 2 Utah-based teams Tech played (i.e., Tech’s 3 best wins), the Red Raiders made 14 trips to the red zone and scored just 5 touchdowns.
That’s been a season-long issue. Texas Tech gets touchdowns on just 56.2% of its red zone trips, which ranks 101st in the country. Oregon can be run on, but if the Ducks simply bend rather than break, can Tech finish off drives? It couldn’t against Utah or BYU, and neither of those teams possessed quarterbacks anywhere close to Dante Moore in terms of quality.
Depending on the nature of Oregon’s first-round win, the Ducks might actually be favored in the Orange Bowl.
Bet Oregon to make the CFP semifinals (-105) via DraftKings
Indiana to win the national championship
Here’s something to consider with teams that are being coached this postseason by guys who have already accepted other jobs. The earlier games might not get in the way much. The longer their team hangs in the field, though, the more those coaches are going to be strained.
Let’s say Oregon, which will have to replace both Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi after the season, beats Texas Tech to advance to the Peach Bowl. That game will be played on Jan. 9 — exactly 7 days after the winter window for the transfer portal opens. How heavy does Stein want to hit the portal to retrofit a Kentucky team that was just battered down the stretch and figures to have major turnover? That work will be tireless.
Oregon (+800 via Caesars) looks like a solid value bet to win the national championship because of its quality.
Indiana (+300) is the safest bet.
The Hoosiers beat the Ducks in Autzen earlier this year. They have blown teams out early, put teams to bed late, won rock fights in unfriendly environments, come from behind to win, and answered every single question posed to them.
Ohio State might be the more talented team. Indiana just beat that more talented team on a neutral field. And the Hoosiers aren’t even the favorite to win the CFP.
IU is fourth in adjusted net EPA per play, according to Game on Paper. The 4 semifinalists last season all ranked top-4 in the same metric. Indiana has no weaknesses.
Its quarterback has answered the bell in big moments. Its defense wins with efficiency and with splash plays. Its run game is among the most efficient in the sport. It wins on third down better than anyone. It gets to the red zone on offense more than just about anyone. It stays out of the red zone on defense better than anyone. It takes the football away better than just about anyone and holds onto the football better than just about anyone.
Swap the logo next to the statistical profile with, let’s say, an Alabama logo, and you’d be getting minus odds for this team to win a national title.
Bet Indiana to win the national championship (+300) via Caesars
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
