Betting Stuff: Best bets for the 2025 College Football Playoff First Round
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On Friday, the opening round of the College Football Playoff begins. A rematch of SEC blue bloods gets us rolling ahead of a weekend that should produce at least a couple of down-to-the-wire games.
Here’s how to bet the action.
The best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.
Last week: 1-2
2025 season: 19-27-1
2024 season: 33-37
CFP First Round schedule, odds
SDS is your one-stop shop this season, with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every postseason game below.
Alabama team total under 20.5 points (-120 via BetMGM)
We know what Alabama is, and we know what Oklahoma is. We know how both of these teams have to play to win big games. Neither wants to see an up-tempo, high-possession game. Alabama can’t run the football and it can’t create pressure on the other side. Oklahoma can’t move the ball with any degree of consistency. Both have shown a proclivity for turning the football over.
The script here should be a grind-it-out game. The point total (40.5) is one of the lowest in CFP history. Since beating Bama in Tuscaloosa, OU has managed only 17 points in each of its last 2 games. Quarterback John Mateer has completed just 54.4% of his passes with 3 interceptions, but Oklahoma has won both because the defense has been nearly unbreakable.
Mizzou managed 6 points. LSU mustered 13. In 9 games against power conference opponents this season, OU has forced opposing offenses to gain 18.0 yards for every point they score. For a single, solitary touchdown, an offense needs to gain 126 yards. Teams are averaging only 64 plays against the Sooner defense this season, and just 4.3 yards per play.
Do you trust this painfully one-dimensional offense to crack the code against the Sooners? I don’t.
The Sooners have arguably college football’s most difficult defense to go against. Head coach Brent Venables has 3 weeks to prepare for what Alabama does. Mateer has nearly 3 weeks to rest and heal. And Alabama’s starting quarterback is rumored to be less than 100%.
(Those rumors are just that — rumors — and Simpson said Monday he was feeling “great,” but you have to at least listen to the noise here. No one is truly healthy at this point in the season.)
Ole Miss -17 vs. Tulane (-110 via Fanatics)
Lane Kiffin may have high-tailed it out of Oxford, but unfortunately for Tulane, the major pieces that made the Rebels a terror for teams to deal with all remain. Oddsmakers suggested they would downgrade Ole Miss if Kiffin left, but that hasn’t really happened. The Rebels were a 12.5-point favorite over Tulane when they met back in September. For the rematch, they’re hovering around the 17-point key number.
Normally, you’d look at that and sell on the Rebels, who could come out a little flat given everything that has changed with the coaching staff. I don’t buy it. Ole Miss should be plenty motivated to come out and make a statement. This group beat Tulane by 35 points the first time, and the Green Wave are dealing with coaching changes of their own.
If Ole Miss jumps out to a hot start, the Rebels can lean on Tulane and turn this into a blowout. If Ole Miss is flat to open the game, it should still be able to find a rhythm. Tulane doesn’t stop the run. Tulane is 95th nationally in rushing success rate allowed. The line gets no push and the team tackling leaves plenty to be desired.
Oregon first quarter team total over 8.5 points vs. James Madison (+120 via Fanatics)
The spread is huge, and it’s certainly understandable to be wary of laying those points with an Oregon team that is A) dealing with coach turnover, B) recovering from a rash of injuries at the end of the regular season, and C) facing a pretty proud defense. James Madison ranks fourth nationally in adjusted EPA per play faced. Texas Tech, which the Ducks would meet in the quarterfinals with a win, ranks third.
If Oregon comes out ready to go and puts the game out of reach before the fourth, it would make sense to save things for the Red Raiders.
Expect the Ducks to take plenty of swings in the first quarter. Coach Dan Lanning loves to go for 2 on early scores to set the tone. And his Ducks will likely be fired up after last year’s one-and-done showing at the Rose Bowl.
With 21 days between games, the Ducks should be in a much better place. Star receiver Dakorien Moore hasn’t played since Oct. 25. Gary Bryant Jr. hasn’t played since Nov. 8. Evan Stewart, the team’s top wideout, hasn’t played in a game yet this season. All 3 were at practice on Monday.
Will Stein will also still call the plays for the offense despite accepting the Kentucky job.
The Ducks have averaged 8 first-quarter points across 11 games against FBS competition this season. They have cleared 8.5 first-quarter points 4 times. Against a James Madison team that will probably need some time to adjust to the team speed of the Ducks, I like Oregon’s chances to do it a fifth time.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
