Betting Stuff: Best bets for the College Football Playoff National Championship
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Below, you’ll find my best bets for the College Football Playoff national title game.
The best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.
Last week: 2-1
2025 season: 25-29-1
2024 season: 33-37
CFP National Championship schedule, odds
At SDS, we’ve had live, up-to-date college football odds all season long. Below, you’ll find odds for the national title game along with kickoff information.
Indiana -4.5 first-half spread (-115 via BetMGM)
FanDuel posted hypothetical national championship odds for each of the 4 potential title matchups prior to the start of the CFP semifinals. An Indiana-Miami matchup then featured a 5.5-point spread favoring the Hoosiers. After Indiana dismantled Oregon in the Peach Bowl, the actual spread for the national championship opened at 7.5. That number moved to 8.5 by Monday and, at some books, it pushed as high as 9 by Tuesday.
According to data published by BetMGM on Monday morning, Indiana had taken 86% of the spread bets and 88% of the handle. The point total in the game is also being bet up. Given the way Indiana has looked through its first 2 Playoff games, the public is expecting a rout in the national championship.
In a column on Tuesday, I backed Indiana to cover the 8.5-point figure. That’s what my numbers are telling me right now. But I do think there’s something to be said about this Miami team’s ability to fight when written off. The Hurricanes will have one of the best offensive lines Indiana has seen this year, and better defensive lines have given the Hoosiers fits throughout the regular season.
IU quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been on a heater in the CFP, shredding defenses when he has a clean pocket to work from. Miami might be able to get pressure on him eventually — it must — but several signs point to early Indiana advantages that will force Miami to chase.
Corner Xavier Lucas is set to miss the first half of the national title game. That will push true freshman Ja’Boree Antoine into a more prominent role. Or, one of Miami’s recently injured corners will have to jump right back into the fire. The Hurricanes are also one of the most penalized teams in the country, averaging 7 flags per game (104th). They were sloppy and undisciplined in the CFP semis, drawing 10 flags. At home, if the juice is too much and the energy isn’t channeled, Miami is a danger to draw some early flags again.
Indiana won’t beat itself, and it’ll chip away at any weak points. The Hoosiers, who are plus-45 on the scoreboard in the first half during this CFP run, should be playing on the front foot.
Indiana-Miami total over 48.5 points (-110 via Fanatics)
Seven of the last 10 national championship games have cleared the projected point total. Six of Indiana’s last 9 games have cleared the projected point total. Even Miami totals have cleared in 4 of the last 9 games. Miami and Ole Miss were cruising toward an under until the fourth quarter broke open and the 2 sides combined for 26 points in the last 7 minutes of the game.
No one has slowed down Indiana’s offense, which produced 94 total points through its first 2 Playoff games. The Hoosiers averaged 6.2 yards per play against Alabama and then 6.0 against Oregon. They have an explosive pass play rate of 25% and an explosive run rate of 16%. Miami is susceptible to chunk gains on the ground, and if the Canes commit extra numbers to Mendoza, those corners are going to have to win 1-on-1s against a group of receivers that has been dominant of late.
Indiana WR Charlie Becker anytime TD scorer (+145 via BetMGM)
When kept clean, Mendoza has literally picked defenses apart this postseason. He has an 84.4% completion rate, an average of 11.6 yards per pass, 8 touchdowns to 1 interception, and a 96.0 passer grade, according to PFF.
If Miami is unable to put pressure on Mendoza, it’s curtains for the Hurricanes in the national championship. And we’re coming off a game in which an APB had to be put out on star Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr.
But, for the sake of argument, let’s say Miami can win at the line of scrimmage and get Mendoza to move around. The Hurricanes still have to hold up in the secondary, and I’m concerned about their ability to do so against these IU receivers.
Keionte Scott is going to handle the Omar Cooper Jr. (886 yards, 13 TDs) matchup in the slot. Lucas and Ethan O’Connor are going to deal with Elijah Sarratt (802 yards, 15 TDs) and Charlie Becker (614 yards, 4 TDs) on the outside. Lucas, though, will be unavailable for the first half after a targeting penalty went against him in the semifinals.
It doesn’t make a ton of sense to put Antoine on Sarratt — one of the best, most experienced receivers in the country — to start the game. My guess is he draws the Becker assignment. And Becker has been cooking of late. He has touchdown catches in both Playoff games. He had 100-yard days in 3 of his final 4 outings prior to the start of the CFP. After minimal usage early in the season, he has come on down the stretch as a legitimate force.
Expect Indiana to hunt Lucas’s replacement in the first half.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
