Below, you’ll find my best bets for the College Football Playoff semifinals.
The best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.
Last week: 3-0
2025 season: 24-28-1
2024 season: 33-37
CFP Semifinals schedule, odds
SDS is your one-stop shop this season, with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every postseason game below.
Bet Ole Miss team total under 24.5 points (-125 via BetMGM)
I backed Indiana to win a national championship prior to the start of the Playoff, in part, because of the calendar. I wrote the following on Dec. 10:
Here’s something to consider with teams that are being coached this postseason by guys who have already accepted other jobs. The earlier games might not get in the way much. The longer their team hangs in the field, though, the more those coaches are going to be strained.
As of this writing, it is not entirely clear which LSU-bound coaches will be with Ole Miss on Thursday when it takes on Miami. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr., who calls the plays, has been flipping back and forth between Ole Miss and LSU pullovers this week as he prepares for a tenacious Miami defense and scouts/recruits the transfer portal. At some point, that has to have an impact.
Ole Miss got by Georgia with a brilliant second act from quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. Miami is not a team the Rebels want to chase late. Since losing to SMU, Miami has held its last 6 opponents to an average of 1.7 points per game in the first half. Virginia Tech kicked a field goal. Pitt scored a touchdown. No one else put points on the board.
In 2 Playoff games, Miami’s opponents have gained 329 first-half yards and scored 0 first-half points. Ohio State threw a pick and missed a field goal. Texas A&M fumbled and missed a field goal in a wind bowl. While you might say luck has played a part in Miami’s first-half prowess, I’d argue fortune favors the bold.
Miami’s defense is playing with its hair on fire. The edge-rushing duo of Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor has 7.5 sacks in 2 Playoff games. Corner Keionte Scott has been a playmaker, quickly regaining his form after missing time with an injury.
If there is any slippage in the Rebels’ offensive operation, Miami will break the axis clean off the car. If, for some reason, Lane Kiffin wants the coaches who signed contracts with LSU to be in Baton Rouge on Thursday, Ole Miss will have new people manning new positions for the first time in the biggest moment, and that will invariably require an adjustment.
This should be a lower-scoring game in general. But I think Ole Miss is in danger of starting slow, and that would put Miami in a great position to dictate terms. In such a case, possessions will be limited.
Bet Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. over 85.5 rushing yards (-120 via BetMGM)
I expect Miami’s approach to be focused on controlling time of possession, stringing together drives, and shortening the game. Most assume this, but Ole Miss simply has not shown at any point this season that it is equipped to handle the ground game. Mark Fletcher Jr. had 172 rushing yards against Texas A&M, a defense that ranks 28th in rushing success rate allowed, and he had 90 yards against Ohio State, which ranks fifth.
Ole Miss ranks 130th out of 136 FBS teams, per Game on Paper. I’m going back to the well here, betting on a rushing total cashing against the Ole Miss defense, but only because it’s been so fruitful of late. Tulane’s Jamauri McClure cleared his number. Georgia’s Nate Frazier cleared his number. Fletcher stands a great chance to do the same.
When Fletcher has gotten at least 11 carries in a game this season, he has averaged 97.8 yards per game. He has cleared 85.5 rushing yards in 6 of the 9 games he has carried the ball a minimum of 11 times. The month off between the regular-season finale and the first-round game in College Station seems to have rejuvenated Fletcher, who has 38 total touches through the first 2 Playoff games.
Miami is going to give him the ball, and I don’t expect Ole Miss will be able to stop him.
Bet Miami WR Malachi Toney anytime touchdown (+105 via DraftKings)
Malachi Toney, the Hurricanes’ fabulous freshman receiver, received his first rushing attempt of the season on Oct. 17 against Louisville. He found the end zone — his only rushing score of the year — and Miami has given him at least 1 carry every game since.
Toney was limited to 16 receiving yards by the Ohio State secondary in the quarterfinal win at the Cotton Bowl. He had just 22 receiving yards on 5 catches against Texas A&M. Both of Miami’s Playoff opponents have kept him in check. The 2 games Toney played prior to the Playoff, though? He had 25 receptions, 8 rushing attempts, 318 total yards, and 2 scores. He’s a supreme talent, and he’s going to break out at some point.
Toney gets the ball in a variety of ways. Miami has also let him throw 7 passes this season, 2 of which have resulted in touchdowns. The intent to get him the football is there. When Miami needed to put the game away late in College Station, Toney was the guy entrusted with the football.
And there’s no better time for a slump-busting game than when there’s a national championship appearance on the line. He has drawn just 11 targets in Miami’s 2 Playoff games after getting 31 in the final 2 games of the regular season. Wind was a factor in the A&M game. Ohio State swallowed the quick-out stuff in the Cotton Bowl.
Ole Miss isn’t a great tackling team (graded 81st out of 136 teams by PFF), and if the ground game is humming, Miami quarterback Carson Beck is going to be able to operate from better spots.
Given the workload Toney has gotten all season, I’m looking for more of a targeted effort to get him the ball in this one.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
