After unapologetically dominating the nonconference portion of the college basketball season, the SEC has established itself as the best league in the country — by a wide margin. The SEC went a combined 185-23 against other conferences prior to the start of league play and currently has the best net rating of any league, according to KenPom.
We are 3 games into the start of league play. We have 5 programs that have yet to win a game, including newcomers Texas and Oklahoma. And we have 3 teams left standing who have not lost a league game.
One of those winless teams is getting their first victory of the conference slate on Tuesday night when Arkansas and LSU do battle at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center. That game, along with 2 others, give us our best bets of the mid-week window in the SEC.
Arkansas and LSU tip off at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday night. Kentucky hosts Texas A&M in a top-15 showdown on Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET. Then, we turn to Knoxville, where Tennessee hosts Georgia for an 8 p.m. ET tip on Wednesday.
Here are 3 wagers I’m making from that slate.
Texas A&M +6.5 at Kentucky (-115 via BetMGM)
Prior to the 6-point loss to Alabama on Saturday, Texas A&M had ripped off 9 straight victories. Seven of those came against teams rated in the top-100 by KenPom. The Aggies have been powered by a top-15 defense that has already proven it can travel. A&M had a 2-point road win over Oklahoma thanks in large part to a defense that just wouldn’t let the Sooners pull away. A&M does everything you look for when trying to find road upsets. They get high-percentage looks (only 36% of their offensive shots come from 3, with a quarter of their points coming at the free throw line) and they win the possessions game. They are an outstanding offensive rebounding team (first in offensive rebounding rate) and rank in the top 40 nationally in turnover rate forced. Wade Taylor IV remains out for the Aggies, but I think they can hang around thanks to the defense. A&M packs in and forces opponents to be jump-shooting teams, allowing one of the highest 3-point rates of any Division I team. Oklahoma’s Brycen Goodine hit 9 triples off the bench and the Sooners still blew an 18-point second-half lead. Kentucky has been streaky from beyond the arc this season, connecting on better than 40% of their triples in 7 games and less than 30% in 6 games. And Zhuric Phelps has stepped up his scoring in Taylor’s absence. Kentucky, meanwhile, has seen 7 of its last 8 opponents clear 1 point per possession. The Wildcats don’t force many turnovers and have a pretty mediocre 2-point defense. I like A&M here.
Arkansas-LSU total under 149.5 (-112 via DraftKings)
These 2 teams are a combined 0-6 against SEC opponents so far. Both have had a remarkably tough time finding a rhythm on the offensive end of the floor. LSU is averaging 68 points a game in league play and just barely clearing 1 point per possession. Arkansas is averaging 60.3 points per game in league play while scoring 0.928 points per possession. Both defenses force the opposing offenses to pound the ball and consume lengthy possessions to score. Arkansas blocks a ton of looks at the rim while LSU leans on its shooting inside the arc. LSU takes away the 2s and forces teams to play on the perimeter while Arkansas is unreliable as a 3-point shooting team. The under has cashed in 10 of Arkansas’s 16 games so far and in 9 of LSU’s 16.
SPORTSBOOK
Georgia team total under 61.5 points at Tennessee (play to 60)
Last week, Tennessee became the first AP No. 1 team to lose by 30-plus points in a game since 1968. Florida handled the Volunteers in a historic rout, limiting them to 43 points, the third-fewest points scored in a game by an AP No. 1 team in the shot clock era. It ended the Vols’ unbeaten run to start the season and sent them tumbling down the AP poll. But Tennessee responded on Saturday with a 74-70 win over Texas on the road. The offense found itself, averaging 1.233 points per possession as 4 players reached double-digits and the bench pitched in 28 points. Now, the Volunteers return home for their first game since that defeat and they’ll welcome a Georgia team that managed just 51 points in its lost road game. The Volunteers’ defense has been suffocating at home. In 9 games (all wins), the Vols have allowed 55.3 points and limited opposing offenses to 35.7% shooting from the field and 24% shooting from 3 while forcing 13.2 turnovers per game. And 5 of the last 6 opponents who have visited Knoxville have been held to fewer than 15 free throw attempts. Georgia relies on 2s and free throws for the bulk of its offensive production. Tennessee will take those away.
Related: Check out our guide on the top Tennessee sports betting apps to wager on the Vols and land a sign-up bonus.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
