Betting Stuff: Best bets for Week 11 of the 2025 college football season
Published:
As always, fade accordingly.
The best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.
Last week: 1-2
2025 season: 10-21-1
2024 season: 33-37
Week 11 schedule, odds
SDS is your one-stop shop this season, with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 11 game below.
Bet Memphis -6 vs. Tulane (-110 via bet365)
Not only is Memphis 8-1 on the season, but Memphis is also 8-1 against the spread. While the sport clamors over Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall, not enough are paying attention to what Ryan Silverfield has done with the Tigers.
Memphis has one of the most explosive offenses in the American. That was on full display in the win over South Florida, when the Tiger offense had an 18% explosive play rate. After beating the Bulls to push into pole position for the G5’s College Football Playoff spot, Memphis hit 12 explosive plays (a 21.4% rate) in a 38-14 beatdown of Rice. The Tigers were up 31-7 at the break and cruised to an easy win.
And big plays were a big problem for Tulane a week ago when UTSA crushed the wave in the first half. It was a 31-12 game at the break. At the end, UTSA had a 20.3% explosive play rate and 48 points on the board.
Bet Texas A&M -7 at Missouri (-105 via BetMGM)
I’m concerned about Mizzou in this spot, not because of quality, but because of the situation. Freshman quarterback Matt Zollers — the third-string quarterback to open the season — will be making his first start against a tenacious Texas A&M defensive front. The Tigers have had a hard time springing tailback Ahmad Hardy lately, and if those difficulties continue, A&M would presumably be able to create plenty of passing downs and tee off on the young quarterback.
Beau Pribula faced pressure on more than a third of his dropbacks and was sacked 17 times. A&M is bringing in a defense that ranks among the stingiest in the conference on standard downs and ranks in the 98th percentile nationally for havoc rate. That unit excels at getting teams into long third-down situations. A mistake or 2 from Zollers could tilt the field in a hurry. I just think A&M, which ranks fourth nationally in sacks (32) and seventh in tackles for loss (66) has too much firepower in the defensive front for a first-time starter to deal with.
Bet Ohio State -29.5 at Purdue (-115 via DraftKings)
This is a huge number for a conference game, but Ohio State isn’t really a stranger to big numbers in conference games. Since the start of the 2021 season, Ohio State has closed as a 4-touchdown favorite or greater in 8 league games. The Buckeyes are 4-3-1 ATS in those games.
The Buckeyes are 7-0-1 ATS this season thanks to a defense that has been tagged for 10 points in a game only twice. Penn State scored 14 — 7 off a gift from the Buckeyes — and Illinois scored 16. No other team has gotten to double-digits against Matt Patricia’s unit. Do we trust Purdue to be the third?
Purdue’s leading tailback has 1 carry all season that gained 20 yards. Purdue’s leading wide receiver averages 9 yards a reception. Absent explosive plays, the Boilermakers have had to rely on churning drives to score points. They average 0.332 points per play, which isn’t great. Trying to churn against this Buckeye defense is a recipe for disaster.
And the defense — 106th in adjusted EPA per play faced — doesn’t do enough to carry the water in a spot like this. Back the Buckeyes in a game that could very well end 35-3.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
