If you read the Tuesday column, you’re up for the year. If you read the picks piece we publish every Friday, you’ll see I’m only 1 game below .500 for the year. And yet this column is just a dumpster fire to begin the season.
In my defense, literally no one saw Nebraska scoring 68 points in a shutout of Akron. The 68 points the Huskers scored were the most since 2012. The shutout victory was NU’s first since 2009. The 728 yards of total offense were the eighth-best total in program history and the best since 2014.
Nebraska emptied the clip. If BetMGM was offering props on this week’s game against FCS Houston Christian, I’d be falling over myself to bet the first-half spread.
Alas.
Here’s what I’m targeting instead. Fade accordingly.
As always, the best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.
Last week: 1-2
2025 season: 2-6
2024 season: 33-37
Week 3 schedule, odds
SDS is your one-stop shop this season, with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 3 game below.
Bet Ole Miss-Arkansas over 61.5 total points (-110 via BetMGM)
The Arkansas offense ranks fourth nationally in EPA per play, according to Game on Paper. The Ole Miss defense just gave up 23 points to a Kentucky team that struggled to do much of anything against Toledo the week prior. Ole Miss quarterback Austin Simmons has 4 interceptions in his first 2 starts. The Rebel defense gave up 5.7 sack-adjusted yards per rushing attempt to Georgia State in the opener and was then hurt badly by Kentucky runs to the edge; now that unit has to defend against the 6-6 dynamo that is Taylen Green.
Green is off to a hot start. Through 2 games, he has 561 passing yards, 192 rushing yards, and 11 total touchdowns. He’s completing 71.9% of his passes and averaging 10 yards per touch. Arkansas shredded Alabama A&M through the air and then bulldozed Arkansas State on the ground. And while we can point to quality of competition, I’d rather my quarterback build up a head of steam like the one Green currently has than suffer through the first 2 games Simmons has.
Arkansas should take a ton of confidence into Oxford. And that should translate onto the scoreboard. I don’t know what to make of the Razorback defense yet — they’re only giving up 3.9 yards per play with 4 takeaways — but we’ve seen enough of this Bobby Petrino-led offense with Green at the controls to know they’re combustible.
With Simmons’ shaky start, recent examples of Green and Arkansas being all too willing to give the ball away themselves, legitimate concerns about the Ole Miss run defense, and 2 offenses that want to fly, I like playing the over here.
Bet Ohio State -31.5 vs. Ohio (-110 via Caesars)
Coming off an 11-interception season, Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro was outstanding in a near-upset of Rutgers in Week 1 but tossed 3 picks in a 17-10 win over West Virginia last week. Navarro is one of the better running quarterbacks in the country, but if the Bobcats can’t comfortably go to the air, they aren’t going to be on the field much against this Ohio State team. And I don’t think they’ll be able to comfortably go to the air. Not against Matt Patricia, not against Caleb Downs, not after what we’ve seen from Ohio State’s coverage through the first 2 weeks.
The Buckeyes held Texas to 5.7 yards per pass attempt in Week 1 and then held Grambling to 3.3 yards per pass in Week 2. Opponents are completing 53.8% of their passes so far with 1 touchdown and 2 picks. Ohio State has only given up 3 pass plays of at least 20 yards.
I also think Julian Sayin will continue with the rhythm he created in last week’s victory. Ohio blitzed a ton in Week 1 but didn’t create much pressure. They backed off in Week 2 and got home more. Ohio’s front won’t beat the athletes on Ohio State’s line without help, but it’ll be hard to send extra rushers when those bodies are needed in the secondary to handle Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Bobcats’ top corner has been targeted 9 times this season, has given up 8 receptions, and has allowed 20.8 yards per catch. Their No. 2 corner has given up 5 catches on 6 targets at 19.8 yards a pop. Ohio is also coming off a game against WVU where it ran 79 plays, so this isn’t an offense designed to try and sit on the ball, shorten the game, and cover a big number on the road.
Buckeyes roll.
Bet Vanderbilt +5.5 at South Carolina (-110 via DraftKings)
According to Game on Paper, Vanderbilt has the third-best offensive EPA per play mark of any FBS team through the first 2 weeks of the season. South Carolina ranks 100th. The ‘Dores averaged 8.2 yards per play against Charleston Southern and then 8.6 against Virginia Tech. They outscored the Hokies 34-0 in the second half while outgaining them 321 to 21.
Simply put: Vanderbilt has looked significantly better than South Carolina against virtually the same schedule. They have a common opponent and an FCS game at home. South Carolina is plus-3 in the turnover department with a defensive touchdown and 3 punt return touchdowns in its first 2 games, yet the Gamecocks are only plus-41 on the scoreboard. Nothing about the South Carolina offense looks comfortable right now, and now that unit needs to turn in its most efficient performance against a team that shortens the game and sits on the ball.
If Vanderbilt has a chip on its shoulder, that chip is definitely earned at this point. South Carolina is knocking on the door of the AP Top 10 while Vandy sits a mile outside the poll. And South Carolina opened as an 8.5-point favorite.
Williams-Brice Stadium produces an electric atmosphere, but that home-field advantage isn’t worth a touchdown-plus. Vandy is also 5-0 ATS in the Diego Pavia era as a road underdog.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
