Here are my best bets for Week 7.
As always, the best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.
Last week: 0-3
2025 season: 7-13
2024 season: 33-37
Week 7 schedule, odds
SDS is your one-stop shop this season, with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 7 game below.
Bet Texas team total under 20.5 points vs. Oklahoma (+110 via DraftKings)
If you read my Tuesday column, you know I have Oklahoma on the money line in this game. I’m double-dipping because, even though the record might not show it, I feel like I have a pretty firm grasp on who at least some of these teams are this season. Oklahoma and Texas both fall into that category. Both have elite, top-of-the-market defenses. And the Texas offense is just not anywhere close to where it needs to be.
Only looking at the 2 games against Power 4 competition, Texas has run 125 plays across 23 drives. Only 4 of those drives have resulted in points of any kind. Four have ended with turnovers on downs. Three have ended with interceptions. Six have ended before producing a single first down. Sixty percent of the Longhorns’ drives have failed to reach the opponent’s 40-yard line,
There is zero confidence or rhythm within this Texas offense right now, and finding it at the Cotton Bowl against an OU defense that has only given up 0.7 points per drive this season is unlikely. Oklahoma has allowed the fourth-fewest red zone trips to opposing offenses this season. It allows the fifth-fewest yards per rushing attempt, generates a nation-leading 10 tackles for loss per game, and allows a nation-best 17.4% conversion rate on third down.
Field position is going to be a tug-of-war in this game. With OU’s murky quarterback situation, it wouldn’t surprise me if neither team cracked 20 points on the scoreboard.
Bet Missouri +3 vs. Alabama (-110 via BetMGM)
I’m jumping at the opportunity to fade Alabama off an emotional win in a road spot against a certifiably good team. Per Game on Paper, Mizzou ranks fourth nationally — 3 spots ahead of Alabama — in adjusted net EPA per play. The Tiger defense is top-5 nationally in success rate and sound across every phase. The Tiger offense is powered by Ahmad Hardy, the best running back in college football, whose 551 rushing yards after first contact are more than all but 7 other FBS runners have this season total.
Alabama doesn’t limit the explosive runs, and the quarterback run game has hurt the Tide all throughout the Kalen DeBoer tenure. It is worth noting that Vanderbilt had 5 rushing attempts for 113 yards in the first quarter against Alabama before being limited to 6 for 13 in the second quarter, 5 for 7 in the third, and 3 for 2 in the fourth. Alabama’s secondary tightening up throughout the second half forced Vandy to almost entirely abandon its run game. That is an encouraging sign for Kane Wommack’s defense, but I’m not yet ready to buy it as a legit development. Mizzou is better than Vandy in just about every way, and the Tigers will have home-field advantage.
The Tigers are better than I thought they’d be. And they were already one of the safest bets in college football over the last few years. Since the start of the 2023 season, only Notre Dame has a higher cover rate than Mizzou (67.7%). The Tigers are also 7-3 ATS as an underdog during that same span.
Bet Toledo-Bowling Green total under 49.5 points (-110 via bet365)
There is a surprise among the top 10 teams in Game on Paper’s adjusted net EPA per play metric. USC, Oregon, Ohio State, Missouri, and Oklahoma comprise the top 5. Indiana, Alabama, and Texas Tech — teams that reside in the AP top 10 — are also present. Then there’s Toledo at No. 10. Judged on this statistic alone, Toledo has been better against its schedule than Ole Miss, Miami, and Texas A&M. The Bowling Green team the Rockets will face Saturday afternoon? Those Falcons rank 97th.
Toledo’s defense has been outstanding this season. They’ve given up only 1.3 points per drive this year and allow just 3.6 yards per play. In terms of per-play defensive efficiency, only Oklahoma is stopping opposing offenses at a higher rate.
The Rockets average 69.8 plays a game. Bowling Green gets 63 a game. Starting quarterback Drew Pyne has completed 64.4% of his throws for the Falcons this season, but he averages only 6.1 yards per attempt and has 5 interceptions. Pyne has only thrown 10 passes all season that traveled at least 20 yards in the air; this is an offense that has to nickel and dime its way to points. That unit has scored more than 20 against another FBS opponent only once this season. Toledo is not very explosive either, instead relying on a 56% run rate and the MAC’s most productive ground game. Bowling Green should struggle to find the endzone here, meaning Toledo won’t have to do too much to win going away.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
