At this point, all I can do is laugh.
Last week, we backed Toledo — a top-10 defense entering Week 7 — to slow things down against a Bowling Green team that had scored more than 20 against another FBS opponent only once this season. We took the under at 49.5 points.
Well, Toledo had a 21-0 lead and lost. Not only did Bowling Green score more than 20 points, but it also scored 21 points in the final 20 minutes of the game to come back and win. Had the game ended 28-21, the under would have cashed.
But, no. On the final play of the game, to run out the clock and not have to punt to Toledo, Bowling Green ran 23 yards backward to kill the final 6 seconds of game clock. In the process, Toledo got 2 points, and I finished with another losing week.
At this point, take what I say and do the opposite.
Here are my best bets for Week 8.
As always, the best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.
Last week: 0-2-1
2025 season: 7-15-1
2024 season: 33-37
Week 8 schedule, odds
SDS is your one-stop shop this season, with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 8 game below.
Bet Texas Tech -8.5 at Arizona State (-110 via Fanatics)
Without quarterback Sam Leavitt, Arizona State stunk up the joint in Salt Lake City last weekend. Utah blasted the Jeff Sims-led Sun Devils, 42-10. Sims completed only 18 of his 38 pass attempts for 124 yards. The other offense completed only 8 passes all game, but that was fine because it ran for 276 and 6 scores.
If Leavitt is unavailable once again, this will get ugly. But even if he can play, Arizona State might still get trucked. Texas Tech tailback Cameron Dickey is coming off a 263-yard rushing performance against Kansas — part of a total team effort that featured 372 rushing yards on 40 carries.
The Red Raiders are better than every other Big 12 team at the line of scrimmage. And the market isn’t close to accurately reflecting the quality of this Tech team yet. As a 3.5-point dog at Utah on Sept. 20, Tech won by 24. As an 11.5-point favorite at Houston, Tech won by 24. As a 14-point favorite against Kansas, Tech won by 25. Against an Arizona State team that can’t stop the run and might be without its best player on offense, I love the value on Tech here.
Bet UConn money line at Boston College (+100 via BetMGM)
What does Vegas know that we don’t? Right? I can’t really understand the rationale here. UConn is 11.3 points per game better than Boston College, according to SP+. UConn is plus-2.4% this season in net success rate while Boston College is minus-0.4%. UConn’s only 2 losses have come in overtime. Boston College’s only win of the season came in Week 1 against an FCS team.
This season, UConn ranks 20th nationally in yards per play, with 8.6% of its offensive snaps going for at least 20 yards. The Huskies can hit big plays, but aren’t reliant on them. Per Game on Paper, they rank in the 87th percentile for EPA per play on non-explosives. They have a running back who is top-10 nationally in rushing and a quarterback who has yet to throw a pick on the season.
Boston College has given up 89 points in the last 2 weeks. The Eagles are bad.
Bet Miami -13.5 vs. Louisville (-110 via bet365)
I was bullish on Louisville coming into the season but I haven’t been impressed in recent weeks. In the 30-27 overtime loss to Virginia, Louisville managed just 54 rushing yards on 27 carries. The Cards couldn’t run in the 34-27 win over Pitt either, finishing with 53 yards on 34 carries. In those 2 games, quarterback Miller Moss threw 99 combined passes, and yet the pass game only produced 6 plays of at least 20 yards. Moss was also sacked 5 times by UVa and twice by Pitt. The Cards have been hit in the backfield for a loss 19 times in their last 2 games.
They can’t find any balance on offense, and they can’t protect their quarterback. Their quarterback has also been dreadful when pressured. When faced with pressure, Moss has completed 49% of his passes for 4.1 yards per throw with 2 big-time throws and 6 turnover-worthy plays. PFF gives him a 35.0 passer grade on pressured throws, the sixth-worst of any power conference quarterback with at least 150 drop-backs this season.
Miami has the best offensive line in the ACC and perhaps the best defensive front in the country. The Hurricanes rank ninth nationally in allowed success rate. They haven’t piled up tackles for loss or sacks, but they swallow plays before they become bigger. And their top 2 edge players have 53 combined quarterback pressures to lead all ACC defenders. Against a team that doesn’t really create any big plays to begin with, a beatdown could ensue.
Plus, Miami is coming off a bye and has Stanford next week. Unfortunately for the Cards, they have the No. 2 team in the country’s undivided attention.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
