Fade accordingly.
Here’s the card for Week 9.
As always, the best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.
Last week: 1-2
2025 season: 8-17-1
2024 season: 33-37
Week 9 schedule, odds
SDS is your one-stop shop this season, with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 9 game below.
Bet Minnesota +9 at Iowa (110 via Fanatics)
This game jumped out at me because of the odds. When the point total is as low as it is (in the 30s) and the spread is 2 scores, it stands out.
Since Brian Ferentz left the program after the 2023 season, overs are 6-0-1 in games where the total closes under 40 points. After that unbelievable 2023 season, Iowa totals have crept back out of the 30s, for the most part. Should this one close under 40, it’ll be just the second such game for the Hawkeyes this season. The first one (vs. Wisconsin) pushed at 37 because the Badgers couldn’t score a single point. This total might clear, but I want to back Minnesota against the number instead.
This seems like the right time to sell high on Iowa. The Badgers should have an interim coach at some point in the next few weeks. The Nittany Lions already have an interim coach. And the Hawkeyes scored 62 points against those 2 teams despite throwing for just 175 total yards. Iowa ran for 210 yards against Wisconsin and then 245 yards against Penn State. That kind of offensive imbalance won’t work against a team that is actually trying.
Minnesota ranks 20th nationally in run efficiency defense, giving up just 3.2 yards per carry. The Gophers allow a 45% success rate on standard downs and just a 41% success rate on running plays. They win more often than not on early downs, limit the rushing explosives, and they’ve been lucky this season when it comes to intercepting passes.
Gopher running back Darius Taylor also looks to be back at full health after being limited for most of the season by injury. Taylor ran for 141 yards in the opener, got hurt in Week 2, missed the next 2 games, and had just 22 combined carries against Ohio State and Purdue. Against Nebraska last weekend, Taylor ran for 148 yards and a score on 24 attempts. The offense stabilized with that backfield threat, and quarterback Drake Lindsey had his best game (by QBR) since Sept. 6.
Bet Alabama -11.5 at South Carolina (-110 via Fanatics)
I kind of view this Alabama team like a rocket ship right now. So, naturally, putting them here in this column means the Crimson Tide are about to have their first stinky performance since the opener. I say let’s put the SDS curse to the test. Because, on paper, this isn’t a fair fight and it shouldn’t be a close game.
South Carolina has a broken offense and a coach who is now having to answer questions about his staff and his own future. With 4 losses in their last 5 games, and an offense that looks less and less effective with each passing week, I wonder what kind of atmosphere can be generated for this midday kick for the Gamecocks.
Maybe Alabama is a little bit tired after 4-straight games against ranked opponents, but the Crimson Tide should get enough bites at the apple on offense to crack the 30-point threshold. South Carolina struggles to sustain drives, and the Tide don’t give their opponents freebies.
Only 3 FBS teams have fewer giveaways than Alabama (3). Only 9 FBS teams have punted fewer times than Alabama (16), and only 3 of those punts have been returned. Meanwhile, only Auburn has given up more sacks than South Carolina (26). Only 3 FBS teams have committed more penalties. And only 4 other FBS teams have made fewer trips to the red zone than South Carolina (14). Nearly 12% of South Carolina’s plays this season have resulted in a loss.
There’s just not a ton to like here.
Bet Pitt -6.5 vs. NC State (-110 via bet365)
Since suffering consecutive 7-point losses earlier this season, Pitt has been rolling. After smacking around Boston College (48-7), Pitt hit the road to beat Florida State (34-31) and Syracuse (30-13). The Panthers have been 55 points better than expected during the 3-game winning streak and it’s fair to wonder if the market has caught up yet.
NC State has lost 3 straight against FBS opponents. Off a 7-point effort against Notre Dame, the offense is trending down. Since scoring touchdowns on 3 of its 5 first-half possessions against Duke, NC State has had 28 drives against FBS competition. Six of those drives produced points (21.4%). Eight ended with either a fumble, an interception, or a turnover on downs (28.6%). And 8 ended without gaining a single first down. Pitt is allowing just 1.8 points per drive this year. More than 70% of Pitt opponents’ drives end without points.
Since the quarterback change to Mason Heintschel, Pitt has just 3 turnovers in 3 games. It had 8 in its first 4. So long as that trend continues and NC State has to sustain drives to score, the numbers favor Pitt by more than a touchdown.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
