Betting Stuff: How to bet early odds for the College Football Playoff National Championship
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The College Football Playoff is almost done. Two teams are left standing — one of which was expected to reach this stage, and another that wasn’t even supposed to be in the field.
Here’s how to bet the early market for the game.
Last week: 2-2
2025 season: 58-72-1
2024 season: 84-69-1
CFP National Championship schedule, odds
At SDS, we’ve had live, up-to-date college football odds all season long. Below, you’ll find odds for the national title game along with kickoff information.
CFP National Championship picks
You can find my early bets for the CFP national title below. After that, I’ll break down the game.
Indiana vs. Miami
Here’s the framing for this game: How does Miami slow down Indiana?
The Hoosiers are a juggernaut. In the process of becoming the first top-4 seed to win a game in the 12-team College Football Playoff era, Indiana has embarrassed Alabama and Oregon. The Hoosiers have outscored their 2 Playoff opponents 94-25 overall and they have ended the first half plus-45 on the scoreboard.
Covering the spread (-8.5, via BetMGM) in the national championship would give Indiana the record for the best point differential in a Playoff run in CFP history. The Hoosiers are plus-69 through 2 games. Ohio State outscored its 4 opponents by a combined 70 points last season to set the mark for raw differential.
The record warrants a slight asterisk. Ohio State played 4 games. The next team on the list, 2022 Georgia, played 2, along with everyone else. By average margin of victory, the 2024 Buckeyes would have the eighth-best run.
Georgia’s 2022 run holds the record for best average margin (plus-29.5 ppg). The 2019 LSU Tigers, widely regarded as the best team in college football history, were plus-52 in their Playoff run. If Indiana does to Miami what it did to Alabama and Oregon, not only will it challenge for the actual record of “best Playoff run,” but it’ll also force us to have a conversation about whether it passes LSU in the eyeball test for “greatest Playoff run.”
The 8.5-point spread is warranted based on what Indiana has done this year and during this year’s CFP.
Two more points worth making. First, the favorite has covered the spread in the national championship in each of the last 6 seasons after favorites started 1-4 ATS through the first 5. Second, the assumption you’ll read from folks throughout the next week is that a national title game will drag the tempo down and favor a lower total. The reality is the over has cashed in 7 of the last 10 national title games (It is 7-4 overall in the CFP era.)
The betting favorite has won 9 of the 11 national championships played during the CFP era, with Clemson (2016, 2018) the only program to win as an underdog.
Miami’s defensive line was swarming through its first 2 CFP wins, but it disappeared against Ole Miss. The Hurricanes had 1 tackle for loss all game. Rueben Bain Jr. had 1 tackle. Akheem Mesidor had 4 tackles and nothing else. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss was under pressure throughout the game, but Miami got home just once.
Indiana has a top-5 run-blocking grade from PFF. It has a top-20 pass-blocking grade. According to Game on Paper, Indiana ranks in the 99th percentile for average distance needed on third down and it ranks in the 92nd percentile for stuff rate allowed.
This run-first operation does not fall behind the chains. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been sacked more than 3 times in a game just once all year — by Wisconsin on Nov. 15, which looks more fluke than formula.
If there’s a weakness on the Indiana offensive line, it’s right tackle Kahlil Benson, who has allowed 24 quarterback pressures and has a 56.2 pass-blocking grade. But Benson is one of Indiana’s best run-blockers, and left tackle Carter Smith (93.7 grade) is a black hole who can swallow opposing edge rushers.
What makes Miami special is that both edges command extra attention. If Smith takes one off the board and Indiana has to simply worry about how to deal with the other, the ‘Canes are less intimidating.
Especially so when you consider that this Miami secondary will be shorthanded. Corner Xavier Lucas will miss the first half after a targeting penalty was called on him in the semifinals. The Hurricanes could get Damari Brown back, but he hasn’t played since Week 14.
Miami doesn’t just have to beat Indiana’s right tackle consistently. Miami also needs its defensive backs to win 1-on-1 matchups all game long. Oregon’s secondary, which was one of the top-rated units in the country, couldn’t. The Ducks had no answers for IU’s back-shoulder throws. Few teams have.
Miami’s secondary has been just OK against the pass this season (30th in passing success rate allowed) and spotty when it comes to tackling. The group is better than it was! But that is worth nothing in this matchup against the freight train that is the IU offense.
The ‘Canes give up big plays on the ground, which could be another problem against an IU team that can turn into an avalanche if it starts to lean on opponents.
Lucas’s suspension is a big one. Last we saw him, Mesidor was also dealing with a shoulder issue. And, further complicating matters, Miami’s proclivity for penalties was a problem in the Ole Miss game.
I like a couple of first-half props that are currently available, including Indiana’s first-half point total (14.5). The Hoosiers put 17 on Alabama in the second quarter of the Rose Bowl, then 21 on Oregon in the second quarter of the Peach Bowl, putting a pair of really good defenses in a blender.
When it comes to the other side of the ball, IU’s defense matching up with Miami’s offense, I still lean Indiana.
With the game being played at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami technically gets a home crowd for the national championship. Indiana fans turned Atlanta into a home game for their Hoosiers, however, and they should have a healthy presence in the title game. It won’t be a home atmosphere when Carson Beck and the Hurricanes have the football.
If Indiana plays on the front foot and stalls out Miami’s run game, Beck will have to chase the game. That’s an “if,” but it’s not a big “if.” Indiana ranks in the 89th percentile for early-downs EPA per play allowed, per Game on Paper. IU also ranks in the 99th percentile for stuff rate.
Alabama gained an average of 3.6 yards per play on first down. The Tide averaged 1.7 yards per run on first down. Oregon averaged 4.4 yards per first-down play, and quarterback Dante Moore completed just 5 of his 16 first-down throws for an average of 2.3 yards per pass. The Ducks popped a 71-yard run on a first down in the third quarter, while all other first-down snaps gained an average of 2.1 yards per play.
The defensive front has been unrelenting. Miami’s preference to ground and pound the football has worked in its 3 previous games because the other side either couldn’t slow them down (Ole Miss) or couldn’t sustain drives of their own and keep the defense on the field (Ohio State, Texas A&M).
If recent form holds, Indiana will do both. The Hoosiers have given up an average of 2.9 yards per run this season, and no team in the country has given up fewer gains of 10 yards or more on the ground.
Indiana has also brought pressure at a high rate through its first 2 Playoff games. Ty Simpson, Austin Mack, and Dante Moore faced extra rushers on a combined 51.2% of their drop-backs. Simpson and Moore both had sub-40 passer grades when pressured.
Beck has been poor this season when pressured. His completion rate drops under 50%. He has 6 turnover-worthy plays against 3 touchdowns, and a passing grade of 49.9. He has only 2 big-time throws against 6 turnover-worthy plays when blitzed, and his per-throw averages drop.
Throughout the run, Beck has largely played mistake-free football. He has just 1 turnover-worthy play in 3 games. He was excellent against Ole Miss, though he threw an interception. Miami needed more from him against Ole Miss and he delivered.
It’ll once again ask more of Beck, especially if the defense struggles to slow down the IU offense. From just a mass standpoint, Miami’s offensive line will be a unique challenge for Indiana, but the ‘Canes have to be able to make the defense respect the throw game to keep some of those extra bodies from overloading the line of scrimmage.
Can Miami run on Indiana? Maybe. But very few have. And if Miami can’t, Beck will have to drag the offense out of chaotic pockets for 4 quarters.
Remember, IU leads the nation in turnover margin, winning that battle by nearly 1.5 turnovers a game. The Hoosiers have 29 takeaways and just 8 turnovers in 15 games played.
Indiana is a complete team. The Hoosiers have won tight. They’ve won big. They’ve won from behind. They’ve won by jumping teams and never letting up. They win with the run game. They win with the throw game.
Miami has a clear identity, and it can’t deviate much from that identity.
Get ready for a Hoosier national championship. The sport has forever changed.
Bet Indiana first-half team total over 14.5 points (+111 via Caesars)
Bet over 48.5 total points (-110 via Fanatics)
Bet Indiana -8.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
