The College Football Playoff is down to 4, and one half of the bracket features a rematch of one of the regular season’s best games.
Oregon meets Indiana in the Peach Bowl, looking to avenge its only loss of the season. Indiana, meanwhile, already beat the Ducks in Eugene, Oregon, and is coming off a jaw-dropping drubbing of Alabama in the quarters.
Here’s how to bet the game.
Last week: 3-1
2025 season: 56-70-1
2024 season: 84-69-1
CFP Semifinals schedule, odds
At SDS, we’ve got you covered all season with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every CFP semifinal game below.
CFP Semifinal Round picks
You can find my early bets for the CFP’s semifinal round below. After that, I’ll break down the Peach Bowl. You can find my preview of the Fiesta Bowl between Ole Miss and Miami here.
Indiana vs. Oregon — Peach Bowl
Oregon was a 7-point favorite at home in the first meeting. Indiana is now a 4-point favorite on a neutral field in the rematch. Even considering the circumstances, that seems like a pretty drastic swing.
Part of the opening line for this game must account for the stunning result in the Rose Bowl during the CFP quarters. Indiana took a wrecking ball to Alabama in a way few thought possible. An Indiana win? Sure. A 38-3 Indiana win? Preposterous.
While every other top-4 seed has looked like a shell of itself during the 12-team Playoff era, Indiana needed only a quarter to recapture its groove. The Hoosiers averaged 4.4 yards per play in the opening frame against the Tide and then exploded with 17 points and 5.6 yards per play in the second quarter. In the second half, IU put another 21 points on the board and averaged 7.6 yards per play.
The comprehensive beatdown has been dissected well enough in the days since. Indiana made Alabama look disinterested in competing late in the game. It was the type of performance we’d grown accustomed to seeing from Nick Saban-led Alabama teams of the past. So, it was shocking to see Indiana, of all teams, do it to Alabama.
Indiana gets a bump in the market for the performance. I see it as an opportunity to (slightly) fade the Hoosiers. Indiana is the better team, and if you asked me to pick the outright winner, I’d still side with Curt Cignetti’s bunch.
However, it’s hard to beat a good team twice. Ole Miss avenged its earlier loss to Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. And Oregon most certainly qualifies as a “good” team.
The Duck defense put the clamps on Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl, winning 23-0 while allowing just 3.5 yards per play. It wasn’t the cleanest offensive performance — Oregon averaged just 3.8 YPP — but the Red Raider defense deserves its flowers for that.
Likewise, take the defensive performance with a grain of salt. Tech’s offense isn’t Indiana’s, or even James Madison’s. Still, the Ducks did exactly what you’d hope to see following their first-round performance.
Oregon gave up 34 to James Madison and played haphazardly in the second half. The Ducks were laser-focused against Texas Tech, generating 4 turnovers, 7 tackles for loss, and 4 sacks.
In the first meeting between these teams on Oct. 11, Oregon had 4 TFLs, a sack, and a pick-6 off of Fernando Mendoza. The Ducks held the Hoosiers to 3.3 yards per carry, adjusted for sacks. Four of IU’s first 8 drives ended with 3-and-outs, and the Hoosiers had just 13 points to show for their efforts midway through the third quarter.
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore was awful in the fourth quarter that day. He went 4-for-8 for 23 yards with 2 picks. Oregon was 0-for-2 on third down and it gave up 2 sacks. A pick-6 from Brandon Finney with 12:48 to play tied the game at 20-20 and gave Oregon a chance, but the offense simply wasn’t up to the task.
Indiana won the battle at the line of scrimmage that day. It was rather convincing, too. If there were members of the Oregon locker room who doubted the Hoosiers, a 30-20 win in Autzen Stadium erased that doubt in a hurry.
Oregon might be up to the challenge this time around. But, more than anything else, Moore has to play better.
He was picked off twice by JMU. He wasn’t great against Tech, either. He completed 26 of his 33 passes, but he didn’t really take any chances. His average depth of target was 6.2 yards. He threw the ball more than 20 yards downfield only 3 times, with 1 completion. He went 3-for-5 for 14 yards with a pick when pressured.
At his best, Moore is an NFL talent. In the first-round win over James Madison, he went 4-for-5 for 152 yards and 4 touchdowns on throws of more than 20 air yards. Oregon is not a “constant hum” offense, ranking 38th in quality drive rate and 22nd in success rate.
The Ducks do their damage with explosive plays, and that’s where Indiana’s defense is most vulnerable. The Hoosiers rank in the 49th percentile for explosive play rate allowed, and in the 43rd percentile for explosive pass play rate.
D’Angelo Ponds is a corner who commands respect, but he’s only 5-9, and Oregon has freaks at receiver. A fully healthy, fully-loaded skill corps poses problems for even the best defenses. And the Ducks might finally have Evan Stewart on the field for this one.
But, again, Moore has to be the guy. If the Duck defense keeps things tight like in the first meeting, Moore has to come through with enough plays to make Indiana feel the pressure.
At this point, you bet on the talent. We’ve seen it from him in other spots. The Ducks scored 20 with Moore tossing 2 picks and averaging 5.5 yards per pass the first time they met IU. They also missed a field goal from the IU 18.
With the added motivation that comes with this being a rematch, I think we get a tighter game and, at the very least, a slightly cleaner performance from Moore. Oregon’s confidence should be soaring after shutting out Texas Tech. This should be every bit as good as the first meeting was.
Bet Oregon +4 (-105 via BetMGM)
Bet Oregon team total over 20.5 points (-125 via Fanatics)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
