It’s time for conference championship week, when the College Football Playoff bracket will ultimately be shaped.
Here’s how to bet the early market ahead of the 9-game slate.
Last week: 4-4
2025 season: 47-63-1
2024 season: 84-69-1
Champ Week schedule, odds
At SDS, we’ve got you covered all season with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every conference championship game below.
Champ Week picks
You can find my early bets for the week below. After that, I’ll break down each game on the card.
American Championship: North Texas at Tulane
This is a second consecutive AAC title game appearance for Tulane, which played for a conference championship last season but was handled in West Point by Army. Last year’s Green Wave squad lost its last 3 games to close out an otherwise fabulous season with a bit of a dud. This year’s squad enters the title fight on the back of 4 straight wins.
And coach Jon Sumrall isn’t done. Though he accepted the Florida head coaching job over the weekend, he was granted the ability by the Tulane administration to stay with the team and finish out the season. If Tulane, which is No. 24 leading into Tuesday night’s CFP Top 25 reveal, beats North Texas, the Green Wave stand to earn the G5’s automatic qualifier into the College Football Playoff.
(James Madison is ranked 19th and 2 spots ahead of Tulane in this week’s AP Poll. Despite being ranked in the AP Poll since Week 12, the Dukes have yet to be included in the CFP Top 25.)
North Texas coach Eric Morris, who accepted the Oklahoma State job last week, is also sticking around with his team to close out its season. It should be good-on-good, with everyone still very much locked in on the Playoff spot that could be awaiting the victor.
Who do you trust more? North Texas has won 6 straight, and none of them have been by fewer than 14 points. Tulane got popped by Ole Miss earlier this season, but it has otherwise played better against a tougher schedule.
The models love North Texas. SP+ predicts an 8-point win. Game on Paper’s adjusted net EPA per play metric has North Texas as the eighth-best team in the country. Brilliance through the air from quarterback Drew Mestemaker is a huge part of that.
But the Mean Green were exposed a bit by South Florida earlier this season on their home field. Mestemaker threw 3 picks and USF ran for 306 yards with 4 scores in a 63-36 Bulls win. Since giving up 32 to Memphis, Tulane has 7 takeaways, 21 tackles for loss, and 8 sacks in 3 games while allowing an explosive play rate of just 10.4%. The Green Wave have only given up 4 runs that gained more than 10 yards in the last 3 games.
Given the experience of last season, I like the Green Wave at home.
Bet Tulane money line (+115 via bet365)
Mountain West Championship: UNLV at Boise State
Since the start of the 2022 season, Boise State is 22-4 at home. Losing the battle at the line of scrimmage was the deciding factor in each loss, including earlier this season, when Fresno State stunned Boise at home, 30-7.
The Bulldogs outscored the Broncos 20-0 in the second half, but they did their work early. In the first 30 minutes of the game, Fresno State affected the quarterback, forced a turnover, and held the Broncos to 96 rushing yards on 20 attempts. Nearly half of that (44 yards) came on 1 carry. Then, in the second half, Fresno faced 9 runs and stuffed them for a net loss of 5 yards. They got 2 more turnovers and finished with 10 tackles for loss.
Starting quarterback Maddux Madsen was injured in the loss and he hasn’t played since. Coach Spencer Danielson said last week Madsen was “getting closer.” His status for the title game is uncertain. Max Cutforth has started 3 straight (his first 3 career starts) in relief of Madsen. He threw for 341 yards and 2 touchdowns in the win at Utah State last weekend.
Madsen threw 4 touchdown passes in the 56-31 win over UNLV at home earlier this year. But he had plenty of help. The ground game produced 294 yards as tailback Dylan Riley exploded for 201 and a score on 15 carries. Boise averaged 8.9 yards per attempt on the ground.
Even if Madsen can’t go, and Boise State has to turn to Cutforth again, there’s no reason to believe UNLV can stop the ground game and put the onus squarely on Cutforth’s arm. The Rebels rank 132nd in run defense this season, giving up 5.3 yards per carry. They rank dead last in the FBS in rushing EPA per play faced, per Game on Paper.
Bet Boise State -3.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
Big 12 Championship: BYU vs. Texas Tech
In the regular-season meeting between these teams in Lubbock, BYU was beaten 29-7 in a game that didn’t look that lopsided in the box score but just never felt as close in the moment. Per Game on Paper, Texas Tech had a net success rate of just plus-2% (33% vs. 31%). Neither team was particularly efficient on offense as both defenses generated a fair amount of havoc.
But BYU muffed a punt after forcing a 3-and-out on Tech’s opening drive, gave up a field goal, then gave up a touchdown, then missed a field goal, and gave up another score. The defense helped the Cougars tread water in the first half, but the offense did next to nothing.
Tech held the Cougars to 3.4 yards per play across the first 30 minutes. BYU had just 2 plays in the first half that gained more than 10 yards — a 12-yard run and a 15-yard pass.
Tech ranks in the 99th percentile nationally for non-explosive EPA per play allowed. The only way to beat the Red Raider defense is to gash it for big chunks at a time. BYU’s best playmaker on offense is its running back, LJ Martin, and he was limited to 35 yards on 10 carries by the Red Raiders. Running into the Big 12’s best defensive front over and over, hoping something pops, is not a recipe for success, but it might be BYU’s only chance. Bear Bachmeier isn’t far enough along yet as a passer to be a straight drop-back guy who beats a good defense. He has 9 turnover-worthy plays and a 6.3 yards-per-pass clip this season on non-play action pass attempts.
If BYU doesn’t shoot itself in the foot and give Texas Tech extra possessions with short fields, the defense can keep the Cougars in the game.
Bet under 50.5 total points (-110 via DraftKings)
SEC Championship: Georgia vs. Alabama
Georgia has scored at least 13 first-half points in 10 of its 12 games so far this season. Auburn and Florida have been the only teams to hold the Bulldogs shy of that mark. Alabama, conversely, has allowed an average of 8.2 first-half points over its last 6 games. Oklahoma scored 17 in Tuscaloosa. Everyone else over the back half of the season has been held under 12.
Tennessee scored 7. The Vols, however, had the ball first-and-goal from the Alabama 2 late in the half before Joey Aguilar threw a 99-yard pick-6. Aguilar also took a sack for an Alabama safety in the second quarter.
Tennessee is also the only offense Alabama has faced in its last 6 games that ranked inside the top 40 in adjusted EPA per play. Four of the last 5 games have come against either FCS competition or offenses outside the top 100. So, while defensive coordinator Kane Wommack deserves some credit for the late-season run the Tide defense has been on, it’s important to keep in mind the Tide have been abusing bad offenses for the last month.
Georgia does not possess a bad offense. Quite the opposite. Georgia ranks 33rd in adjusted EPA per play. It also ranks 29th in success rate. Expect a better performance from Georgia than what it showed last week against Georgia Tech on the road.
This is also a spot where I wonder if Kirby Smart tries to make a statement. In the last 2 games against Kalen DeBoer-led Alabama, Georgia has been pantsed early on.
In last year’s game in Tuscaloosa, Alabama outscored the Dawgs 21-0 in the first quarter. Georgia’s first 10 plays that day resulted in 12 total yards, 2 punts, and an interception. Then, in this year’s rematch in Athens, Alabama outgained Georgia 147-31 in the first quarter and didn’t give up a pass completion.
Look for the Dawgs to be aggressive early to try and get on the front foot and dictate terms to Alabama. Georgia has hounded some pretty good defenses this season, and we know all too well the Dawgs are capable of flipping a switch when they need to.
Bet Georgia over 12.5 first-half points (-112 via Caesars)
Big Ten Championship: Indiana vs. Ohio State
This one is simple. Ohio State is the better team. The Buckeyes have proved their might time and time and time again this season. They have won each of their last 11 games by at least 18 points and have given up multiple touchdowns in a game only twice all year.
Indiana is rolling, too, but the Hoosiers have been much tighter against teams with equal or better talent. Penn State was a 3-point win. Oregon was a 10-point win. Yes, the Hoosiers ultimately won those games, but they haven’t seen a team yet this season that will stress them the way the Buckeyes will.
And Ohio State should be soaring with confidence after handling Michigan at the Big House last Saturday. The Wolverines had just 163 yards of total offense and converted only 1 third down all game. Ohio State limited the Wolverines to a 24% success rate and dominated time of possession.
No FBS defense has given up fewer scrimmage gains of 10, 20, or 30 yards this season than the Buckeyes. Only 2 FBS defenses have been better on third downs. And no team has given up fewer red zone scores.
Roll with the best defense in football.
Bet Ohio State -5.5 (-110 via Fanatics)
ACC Championship: Duke vs. Virginia
In Virginia’s 34-17 win over Duke on Nov. 15, the Cavaliers took a 31-3 lead into the fourth quarter. Duke simply could not get the Cavs’ offense off the field unless UVa quarterback Chandler Morris threw it to a Blue Devil defender. One of Morris’s 2 interceptions was returned for a touchdown less than a minute after Duke found the endzone for the first time in the game.
It was a beatdown. Virginia went 12-for-19 on third down. The ground game produced 224 yards as J’Mari Taylor piled up 133 on 18 carries of his own.
Duke should put up more of a fight in the rematch, but third down is still going to be an issue. Virginia converts third downs at a 49.2% clip this season, which ranks 14th nationally. Duke allows third-down conversions at a 46.2% rate, which ranks 128th nationally. Duke also converts less than 40% of its own third-down tries while Virginia holds teams to a 27.3% conversion rate (second nationally).
Virginia wins on a down-to-down basis to avoid third-and-longs. The Cavs rank in the 92nd percentile for average third-down distance, per Game on Paper. The defense is also in the 96th percentile for late-down success rate allowed.
Duke quarterback Darian Mensah has also be playing with fire this season. He has only 4 interceptions, but he has 15 turnover-worthy plays. Virginia is tied for sixth nationally in passes defended. They knocked away 8 Mensah passes in the first meeting but didn’t get an interception. That likely won’t happen again.
Bet Virginia -3.5 (-102 via BetMGM)
Dog of the Week: Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan
Yet another rematch of a regular-season game, one of 6 total across the 9-game weekend. Miami won the first meeting, 26-17 at home. The RedHawks rallied with 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to beat the Broncos. Former quarterback Dequan Finn had a touchdown throwing and rushing in the fourth, and a strip-sack of WMU’s Broc Lowry with 2:54 to play gave Miami a field goal for insurance.
WMU jumped out in front in the second quarter thanks to several huge plays. Facing a third-and-5 from their own 12 with less than 5 minutes remaining in the second quarter, Lowry hit passes of 45 and 43 yards on back-to-back plays to produce WMU’s first points of the game. The Broncos’ next possession was set up by a 72-yard kickoff return that started the offense 1 yard shy of the red zone.
Remove those 2 long pass plays and Western Michigan averaged 3.5 yards per play for the game. Miami won the turnover battle and produced 3 sacks while keeping WMU from getting to Finn a single time.
Finn has since left the team to prepare for the NFL. Miami lost 24-3 to Toledo in its first game without him, but won back-to-back by 17-plus points to close out the regular season and make it to the league title game. Henry Hesson started at quarterback in the Toledo loss. After a 3-interception performance, Miami pivoted to Thomas Gotkowski.
In his first start, Gotkowski threw for 185 yards and scored 2 touchdowns. Last week, he threw for 226 and 3 scores. With that unit seemingly stabilizing and Miami a constant threat to take the football away (20 in 12 games), the RedHawks are a decent bet to win outright.
Bet Miami (OH) +2.5 (-108 via Caesars)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
