One good week is all we need at this point to turn things around. Did I consider picking against my instinct in all 8 spots this week? I’d be lying if I said I didn’t. But I’m going to continue to trust the process and hope the luck starts to swing the other way sooner rather than later.
One change to the card this week. The “upset of the week” money line pick is gone, replaced simply with an underdog of the week to target. That spot is crushing me this season. I’m 3-7 outright over the last 10 weeks with those picks despite those underdogs going 6-4 against the spread.
Last week: 2-6
2025 season: 39-55-1
2024 season: 84-69-1
Week 13 schedule, odds
At SDS, we’ve got you covered all season with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 13 game below.
Week 13 picks
You can find my early bets for the week below. After that, I’ll break down each game on the card.
No. 14 Miami at Virginia Tech
The Virginia Tech defense is ghastly. That unit ranks 132nd nationally in adjusted EPA per play, according to Game on Paper. FBS opponents have performed better than their season scoring average by roughly a field goal against the Hokie defense. Miami is at 33.7 points per game on the season and has scored at least 38 points in 3 of its last 4. Since the loss to SMU, Miami has blown out back-to-back opponents.
And the Hurricanes need to continue to do exactly that if they’re going to make the College Football Playoff. Though they realistically have no path to the ACC title game, they could still make a case for an at-large bid if they end the year looking like one of the best teams in the country.
SP+ projects 38 points for Miami. Other models have Miami scoring around 5-to-6 touchdowns as well. Virginia Tech creates virtually no havoc and has one of the worst pass defenses in the country. Only 6 FBS defenses have defended fewer passes than Virginia Tech, and only 12 have fewer interceptions. Unless Miami quarterback Carson Beck hands it to the Hokies, Miami should not struggle to put 30 on this VT defense.
Bet Miami team total over 30.5 (-170 via DraftKings)
Baylor at Arizona
Arizona has won 3 straight. Baylor has lost 3 of its last 4. In the most recent loss — a 55-28 defeat to Utah at home — the Bears gave up scoring plays of 64, 67, and 74 yards on the ground. They also gave Utah a 65-yard pick-6 and a 25-yard passing score. Baylor ran 91 plays to score 28 points and gave up an explosive play rate of 19%.
In the other 2 defeats (both on the road), Baylor gave up 83 combined points despite allowing only 14 explosives in 140 defensive snaps. Baylor has one of the worst defenses in the country by success rate. Though Arizona is not a run-heavy outfit on offense, if the Wildcats are constantly operating from standard downs, quarterback Noah Fifita should be able to eat up the secondary. And Fifita hasn’t thrown a pick since Oct. 11.
During its 3-game winning streak, Arizona has held opponents to 20.3 points per game and forced 7 turnovers. Though Arizona doesn’t generate a ton of negative plays on defense, it does limit the effectiveness of opposing passers. The unit ranks seventh nationally in passing success rate allowed. Baylor leans heavily on the arm of quarterback Sawyer Robertson. I like the matchup for the Wildcats here.
Bet Arizona -6.5 (-107 via Caesars)
Kansas at Iowa State
The 5-5 Jayhawks are live to win outright in Ames on the other sie of a bye week. After starting the season 3-1, Kansas lost 4 of its next 6 to put bowl eligibility in jeopardy. A second consecutive season without a bowl game for Lance Leipold would be damaging, and Kansas has to host Utah in the regular-season finale. Iowa State is coming off a bye of its own, but the same level of desperation might not be present with the Cyclones, who snapped a 4-game losing streak their last time out to win their sixth game of the season.
Both offenses have advantages they can press against the respective defenses. For Kansas, look for quarterback Jalon Daniels to make some plays with his legs. Iowa State has been hurt throughout the season by mobile quarterbacks. In the 8-point loss to Cincinnati, it couldn’t contain Brendan Sorsby (64 yards). BYU’s Bear Bachmeier ran for 49 yards and Arizona State’s Jeff Sims exploded for 228.
Bet Kansas +4.5 (-112 via DraftKings)
UConn at FAU
Florida Atlantic is 3-1 ATS in its last 4 games as an underdog, winning one of them outright. But even amid that run, the 3 outright defeats have all come by double-digits. The Owls are 4-6 in their first season under coach Zach Kitley, and the offense hasn’t been the issue. FAU has at least 400 yards of offense in 4 of its last 5. In back-to-back losses to South Florida and Navy last month, the Owls gave up 1,025 yards and 90 points. In the 11-point loss to Tulane last week, they gave up explosive plays on a quarter of Tulane’s snaps.
Led by quarterback Joe Fagnano, UConn has one of the more effective offenses in all of college football. The Huskies rank in the 88th percentile for EPA per play on their non-explosive snaps. And only 12 FBS teams have more snaps this season that gained at least 20 yards.
The Huskies have a 1,000-yard tailback in Cam Edwards. They have a 1,000-yard receiver in Skyler Bell. And Fagnano has just 1 interception in 367 pass attempts. UConn should be able to separate enough to cover this number.
Bet UConn -7.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
No. 16 USC at No. 6 Oregon
The game of the week comes in the Big Ten, when a pair of former Pac-12 programs meet each other in Eugene for a game that could heavily influence the College Football Playoff bracket. Unless chaos unfolds during Thanksgiving weekend, neither of these teams will be able to play for a conference title. With an otherwise weak schedule, Oregon quietly needs this win to reinforce its résumé. USC, with 2 losses already on the year, only has a case for the CFP if it beats the Ducks.
Resiliency has been a hallmark of both teams’ seasons. Oregon has consistently been bitten by injuries and, to this point, the depth has been enough. USC has gotten off to slow start after slow start and found ways to fight back.
On the Oregon front, perhaps an extra day of rest after a cakewalk against Minnesota last week does the locker room some good. Oregon’s skill positions were supremely limited against the Gophers.
USC trailed Iowa 21-10 at the half last week before scoring 16 unanswered over the final 30 minutes to win. Lincoln Riley called it a “culture” win. The Trojans held the Hawkeyes to 4.9 yards per play in the second half. Over the last 5 games, USC has outscored the opposition 76-32. That includes 20 points allowed to Notre Dame in a loss.
None of the other 4 opponents — Michigan, Nebraska without Dylan Raiola, Northwestern, or Iowa — are comparable in any way to Oregon on the offensive side of the ball. The Ducks are third nationally in offensive efficiency, averaging 7.4 yards per play.
The Ducks have the secondary to wrangle USC quarterback Jayden Maiava. USC’s ground game, which has been salvaged by walk-on running back King Miller, is mildly concerning. But more than anything, the injury situation for both teams makes this one hard to pin down.
USC left tackle Elijah Paige left the game against Iowa with an injury. So did starting safeties Kamari Ramsey and Bishop Fitzgerald. Oregon was without wideouts Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. against Minnesota, though tight end Kenyon Sadiq did make his return to the field. There has also been some buzz recently about wideout Evan Stewart.
There’s a chance Oregon jumps out to a hot start in this game given everything at play — USC’s run of slow starts, Oregon’s matchup edges at key spots, USC’s injury situation. And the Trojans haven’t won a game like this in a while. Under Lincoln Riley, USC is 0-4 against AP Top 10 teams. Overall, it has lost 6 straight games to top-10 teams and 9 of the last 10.
Bet Oregon -5.5 first half spread (-108 via DraftKings)
Coastal Carolina at South Carolina
The Week 12 game against Texas A&M was the first time since Sept. 27 that South Carolina‘s offense scored more than 23 points. The Gamecocks had 30 points at halftime and a 27-point lead on the No. 3 team in the country.
We know what happened in the second half, but I’m more interested in what happened in the first half, because that showing seems to be the catalyst for this week’s number. The Gamecocks had 312 yards of offense and 30 points on the board in the first half. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers threw for 204 yards and the offense averaged 8.2 yards per play.
Seven points came from a fumble return for a touchdown. Seven more came off an 80-yard touchdown from Nyck Harbor. South Carolina snapped the ball 38 times in the first half and produced 10 explosive plays.
Based on everything we’ve seen from South Carolina this year, I’m inclined to set that performance aside. It’s not repeatable. In the second half against Texas A&M, South Carolina snapped the ball 26 times and averaged 2.9 yards per play. The A&M mistakes dried up and the South Carolina lead evaporated.
A 35-point effort against Kentucky on Sept. 27 and a 24-point game against Virginia Tech in the opener are the only other games all season that have featured more than 23.5 points from the South Carolina offense. South Carolina’s defense scored 14 points against Kentucky, and its special teams scored 7 against Tech.
Coastal Carolina has 18 turnovers this season, so the potential exists for the Gamecocks to get more scoring production from other non-traditional places. Eleven of the Canticleers’ 18 giveaways came in the first 3 weeks of the season. The defense also has 9 takeaways in its 3 most recent games.
Coastal has also averaged 42.3 points per game over its last 4. The Chants got shredded by better teams earlier in the season but after a quarterback change, it ripped off 4 straight wins.
Quarterback is the position to watch here. CCU’s Samari Collier exited last week’s game with an injury and was later spotted on crutches. Tad Hudson replaced him. Hudson struggled heavily in blowout losses to East Carolina and Old Dominion earlier this year.
A hangover could come into play for South Carolina after the way the A&M game ended. Add in everything else, and this could be an ugly football game.
Bet under 53.5 total points (-110 via BetMGM)
Western Kentucky at LSU
The Tigers have been one of the most disappointing teams in the country this season. LSU narrowly avoided what would have been an embarrassing home loss over the weekend, skating by Arkansas 23-22, but I don’t think there are many positives to glean from the result.
Arkansas had a 14-0 lead after the first quarter and then imploded. After a score from Taylen Green gave the Razorbacks a 2-score lead, they did everything in their power to give the game away. The next 5 drives were as follows: a 3-and-out, an interception, a 3-and-out, an interception, and a turnover on downs. Arkansas missed a 48-yard field goal with 5:08 to play and then never got the ball back.
Western Kentucky is top-25 nationally in both offensive and defensive success rate. The Hilltoppers (8-2 ATS) have also been one of the most reliable teams to back all season. They even have 2 outright wins as an underdog!
That probably won’t happen here, but LSU might have to pitch a shutout to cover this number and that probably won’t happen either.
Bet Western Kentucky +22.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
Dog of the Week: Nebraska at Penn State
Nebraska can’t stop the run, and that’s mighty concerning with Penn State on deck. But Penn State can’t stop the run either, and Emmett Johnson is one of the nation’s best running backs you may not have heard of.
Johnson has 1,131 yards and 11 scores this season. He averages 5.6 yards per carry. Nebraska’s raw rushing numbers look bad because the Huskers can’t pass-block. But NU ranks in the 90th percentile or better for stuff rate, line yards per carry, and opportunity rate. Johnson has at least 124 rushing yards in 4 of his last 5 games. Penn State ranks 100th nationally in rushing success rate allowed.
Without Dylan Raiola, true freshman TJ Lateef will make his second straight start. Lateef showed promise in his first start against UCLA, and it didn’t look like Nebraska watered down the gameplan much for him. Penn State has to win out to make a bowl game, so there’s still plenty to play for in Happy Valley, but the Huskers have enough fight to keep this close.
Bet Nebraska +9.5 (-110 via bet365)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
