It’s Rivalry Week in college football, otherwise known as the best regular-season weekend on the sports calendar. Throw out the records, throw out the context, and settle in for some chaos.
I’m looking to build off last week’s respectable showing and close out the regular season on a strong note. Here’s how I’m approaching the early betting market for Week 14 of the college football season.
Last week: 4-4
2025 season: 43-59-1
2024 season: 84-69-1
Week 14 schedule, odds
At SDS, we’ve got you covered all season with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 14 game below.
Week 14 picks
You can find my early bets for the week below. After that, I’ll break down each game on the card.
Ole Miss at Mississippi State
Mississippi State had been competitive this season prior to games against Georgia and Mizzou. The Bulldogs were tracking toward their first SEC win for weeks — taking Tennessee and Texas to overtime, forcing Florida into the mud in The Swamp — but they let go of the rope a bit in the 2 weeks prior to their bye. A couple of first-half mistakes led to a 38-0 run by the Dawgs in a blowout victory. Then Ahmad Hardy ran for 300 and 3 scores on the Bulldogs.
After an off week, should we expect a refreshed Mississippi State team? This is certainly an advantageous situational spot. It’s a rivalry game at home, the Bulldogs are rested, and they’re welcoming a team to Starkville that has all manner of distractions swirling around it.
The Ole Miss athletic director put Lane Kiffin‘s feet to the fire over the weekend, saying a decision on Kiffin’s future would come after the Egg Bowl and, in the meantime, he expected the focus to remain on Mississippi State. That’s easier said than done, especially if Kiffin’s decision involves leaving Oxford. Ole Miss is also in the College Football Playoff regardless of the result in this game.
On the field, the most interesting storyline is at quarterback for MSU. Will the Bulldogs go with Blake Shapen? Or turn to freshman Kamario Taylor? Fans have been clamoring for Taylor for weeks. When Shapen was knocked out of the Georgia game, Taylor replaced him. He ended the game with 3 rushing touchdowns. Shapen started the following week against Mizzou and threw a pair of interceptions before handing off to Taylor.
MSU coach Jeff Lebby knows what Shapen is at this point. Shapen has 8 interceptions this season and a 56.5 Total QBR that ranks dead last among qualified SEC quarterbacks. (He’s below Auburn’s Jackson Arnold, who has long since been benched.)
It would make sense for Lebby to play coy on his quarterback for Week 14. It would make sense for Lebby to start Taylor in the final game of the regular season and give the young passer an opportunity to build momentum into next season. That being said, MSU is still fighting for bowl eligibility and Shapen emerged from the Georgia wreckage with his starting job intact, so it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see him lead the offense against the Rebels.
The question gives MSU a bit of an advantage. They are different quarterbacks. With everything else swirling around this game, maybe Lebby can scheme some early action to give MSU leverage in specific spots and hit the Rebels in the mouth early. If Kiffin’s mind is elsewhere, this will be a dog fight.
Ole Miss has won 3 of the last 4 in Starkville and 4 of the last 5 overall in the series. The 2 most recent games in Starkville were double-digit wins. I think the number from Vegas here appropriately bakes the Kiffin question into the equation. I’ll still take the Bulldogs.
Bet Mississippi State +7.5 (-120 via BetMGM)
Georgia at Georgia Tech
I don’t know what is going on with the Yellow Jackets, but it’s nothing good. The defense has completely collapsed in recent weeks. Four straight games have cleared the projected point total, with Tech rolling Syracuse on Oct. 25 and then giving up an average of 41.3 points in the 3 November games it has played so far.
Entering the Week 13 matchup with Pitt, Georgia Tech was in a position to lock up an ACC title berth with a win. Doing so would have secured Tech a play-in opportunity for the CFP. And then it fell down 28-0 to the Panthers before attempting to rally.
I thought Tech would put everything it had into the Pitt game and treat the Georgia game like sprinkles on top of a sundae. Instead, the Ramblin’ Wreck looked lethargic. Does that mean their focus, instead, was on Georgia? I don’t know, but I don’t think the defensive issues get fixed in time.
That sets the table for a potential shootout in Week 14, and I actually think that style of game benefits the Yellow Jackets more. Georgia doesn’t get much of a pass rush these days. Georgia ranks in the 13th percentile for havoc rate on defense, per Game on Paper. It ranks 78th in EPA per drop-back allowed. Georgia’s leading pass rusher (Raylen Wilson) has 18 quarterback pressures this season, tying him for 40th among SEC defenders. Jalon Walker led the UGA defense with 34 pressures last season.
Putting the ball in the hands of Haynes King and letting him sling it has yielded decent results. Tech has scored at least 28 in each of the last 4 games, too.
I don’t think Tech is a threat to win this game, but Georgia’s inability to put the clamps on opposing passers makes the Ramblin’ Wreck a threat to sneak in the back door against a Georgia team that could get up big and then put it on cruise control. The Dawgs are in the CFP. They can go to the SEC title game still as well, but that’s entirely dependent on what happens elsewhere.
Bet Georgia Tech +13.5 (-109 via Caesars)
Temple at North Texas
North Texas is 9-2 against the spread this season, beating the number by an average of 16.3 points per game in the wins. The only ATS losses came in Week 2 when UNT went to overtime with Western Michigan, and then in Week 7, when UNT got blown off its home field by South Florida.
Since that disappointment against the Bulls, North Texas has won 5 straight games outright, all of them by double-digits. And it has covered in each game, all of them by at least a touchdown. The Mean Green are thumping teams, rolling toward a spot in the AAC Championship Game and making a case for the Playoff. With a win over Temple, UNT clinches a spot in the title game.
The Owls have lost 3 straight, including blowouts at the hands of East Carolina and Tulane. ECU totaled 614 yards of offense and 45 points in its win at Lincoln Financial Field on Nov. 1. Tulane put up 406 yards and 37 points. Both teams gashed Temple for huge gains through the air, which makes UNT clear and present danger.
North Texas ranks in the 98th percentile for yards per dropback and the 97th percentile for EPA per dropback. The offense is deadly even without the presence of explosives, but those were abundant in last week’s 56-24 win over Rice.
After spotting Rice a 14-0 lead, UNT ripped off 42 straight as quarterback Drew Mestemaker threw for 469 yards. Receiver Wyatt Young had 295 receiving yards, hauling in 74- and 84-yard touchdown passes.
With 3,469 yards this year, Mestemaker leads the nation in passing. He’s also 14th nationally in Total EPA. Temple hasn’t had an answer for opposing pass games all year. (The numbers are skewed because Army threw 3 total passes in its 14-13 win on Nov. 8.) I don’t see how they slow down North Texas in Denton
Bet North Texas -19.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Texas A&M at Texas
When these 2 teams met last year, Texas A&M managed only a single touchdown on its home field, and that score came via a 93-yard pick-6 by the defense. Texas had a 17-0 lead at the halftime break and held the Aggies to just 244 yards of total offense. Expect fireworks this time around between the Aggies and the Longhorns.
Marcel Reed is a better quarterback than he was a year ago. Texas was also able to control the game with 186 rushing yards from Tre Wisner last year, and this year’s Longhorn offense is significantly worse running the ball than it was last year.
Texas also missed linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. against Arkansas over the weekend. The Longhorns gave up 37 points in a spotty defensive effort, one that was checkered with missed tackles, miscommunication, and too many explosives allowed. One might excuse Texas for overlooking the Razorbacks, who remain winless in league play, but that was also the fourth straight game in which the Texas defense has given up 30-plus to the opposition.
Hill’s return, which is expected this week, doesn’t just immediately fix every problem. And A&M has spent all season exacerbating issues for teams on defense. The Aggie offense ranks eighth nationally in adjusted EPA per play.
A&M has remained effective without the presence of big plays, but the Aggies have crushed teams with explosives. They have 47 pass plays of at least 20 yards this season (14th nationally) and gain at least 10 yards on 35.4% of their pass attempts.
Texas, for its reputation on defense, has been bad against the throw game all year. The Longhorns are 84th in passing success rate allowed and give up 10 yards on 27% of all attempts they face.
If A&M can jump on the front foot and force Texas to score to keep pace, this could clear in 3 quarters. Texas could also jump out to another early lead given its advantages against an A&M secondary that misses tackles and gives up chunks. Yes, A&M has talent along its defensive front and that could cause problems for a poor Texas offensive line, but the Longhorns have found a rhythm on offense in recent weeks without any semblance of a ground game.
Bet over 51.5 total points (-110 via bet365)
Texas Tech at West Virginia
West Virginia stinks. Texas Tech is awesome. The Mountaineers were eliminated from the postseason with a 25-23 loss at Arizona State 2 weeks ago. The Red Raiders still need to win to lock up their spot in the Big 12 title game. Even though this is in Morgantown, there are zero indicators that West Virginia can give Tech a game.
The Mountaineer offense cannot throw the ball, so it relies heavily on the ground game to move it. WVU is sixth nationally in rushing attempts per game (45.6) and 101st in rushing efficiency (3.8 yards per carry). The Mountaineers hit a decent amount of explosives, but the offense drops off a cliff when those aren’t there.
And those likely won’t be available against the Big 12’s best defensive front. Texas Tech bolstered its defensive line in the offseason and that has proven to be money well spent this fall. Tech ranks seventh nationally in allowed success rate. It sits in the 99th percentile for non-explosive EPA per play allowed. Just 3.9% of the total plays the defense has faced this season have produced at least 20 yards.
West Virginia lost 5 straight earlier this season. It gave up 38 or more in 4 of those 5 games. Unless Tech is asleep, this game should look like those did.
Bet Texas Tech -23.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
Vanderbilt at Tennessee
Which team can come up with a single stop? That’ll be the determining factor in this one. Vanderbilt enters the matchup with a very real chance to make the CFP, but it has to win. Tennessee has won 6 straight in the series, and the last 3 games played in Knoxville have all been settled by double-digits. (Both stats include 2 vacated wins in 2019 and 2020.) There are plenty of reasons for both sides to feel confident heading into this matchup.
And though both are coming off strong defensive performances in Week 13, I’m still out on these 2 defenses as a whole. Tennessee ranks 124th nationally in allowed success rate, which is a massive problem against one of college football’s most efficient offenses. Vandy ranks second in offensive success rate, but 80th in defensive success rate. The Commodores limit teams on the ground but give up chunk plays through the air like candy on Halloween, which is a massive problem against one of college football’s most aggressive play callers.
We know Josh Heupel wants to get vertical with the throw game. Those haven’t always been there for Joey Aguilar, yet the Tennessee pass game still ranks in the 99th percentile for yards per drop-back this season. The ground game doesn’t get stuffed very often, so the Vols are frequently in decent positions when they end up in late-down situations.
Both offenses have major advantages that can be pressed against the opposing defenses. And, given the stakes, I think we’ll see 2 hyper-aggressive approaches right out of the gates.
Bet over 64.5 total points (-110 via bet365)
Alabama at Auburn
From an intrigue standpoint, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey could not have scripted this spot any better if he tried.
Alabama has to win to make the SEC Championship Game. After dropping a home game to OU earlier this month, Alabama has to win to keep itself from taking a 3-loss résumé into a sweaty Selection Sunday again. And Alabama has to win on the road, at night, inside Jordan-Hare Stadium against an Auburn team that finally woke up on offense in recent weeks.
The Tigers started the worst of their 3 quarterbacks for the better part of the season, a decision that ultimately cost Hugh Freeze his job. Ashton Daniels rescued the season against Arkansas. He then sat out the Mercer game, opening the door for freshman Deuce Knight to produce 401 yards of total offense and 6 touchdowns. Auburn now finds itself 1 win away from bowl eligibility and flush with confidence.
Auburn fans could see Alabama’s season go up in flames Saturday night. Inside a House of Horrors, ending the Tide’s 5-game winning streak in this series would be quite a way to close out the regular season.
Auburn won the 2017 meeting on The Plains by 12 points. The 3 games that have been played at Jordan-Hare since then have been decided by 3 points, 2 points, and 3 points.
Now, to the actual matchup. The Tigers’ defense is probably the second or third-best unit the Tide have faced all season. Oklahoma shut the Tide down, giving up just 21 points and forcing 3 turnovers. Mizzou forced a turnover of its own and limited Alabama to 27 points.
According to Game on Paper, the Sooners lead the nation in allowed success rate. Missouri ranks fourth. Auburn ranks 14th.
The Tigers sit in the 85th percentile for havoc rate. They have one of college football’s best run-stopping units. Unless Eastern Illinois was lined up on the other side, Alabama hasn’t been a good rushing team for much of the season. And quarterback Ty Simpson has repeatedly made back-breaking mistakes late in games that either tightened the ballgame or, in the case of the game against the Sooners, outright cost Alabama the game.
Auburn hasn’t gotten its hands on many passes this season, but turning the Tide one-dimensional in a hostile environment is a great way to set the scene for a turnover. Factor in a shaky kicking situation and we could see at least a few times when Alabama is going for broke on fourth down. Ryan Grubb is usually pretty creative in those spots, but empty possessions would be especially damaging in the environment expected on Saturday night.
You also have to consider the role Knight could play in the Tigers’ gameplan, either as a starter or a change-of-pace quarterback off the bench. Auburn simply has to use him after last week’s performance.
This should be a lower-scoring game. Given everything at play, it’s hard to trust Simpson not to give the Tigers an extra possession or 2 that forces Alabama to have to sweat out another result.
Bet Auburn +6.5 (-120 via ESPN Bet)
Dog of the Week: Kentucky at Louisville
The performance against Vanderbilt halted a string of impressive outings from Kentucky. The Wildcats were uninterested in covering the Commodores down the field and gave up a record-setting passing performance to Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia in what became a 45-17 defeat
I’m not deterred. It actually created a buy-low opportunity to back the ‘Cats as a dog in a rivalry spot with a Louisville team that has been flat-out bad for the better part of a month.
Since beating Miami on the road, Louisville has won 2 and lost 3. The 2 wins both saw the Cardinals come from trailing positions to beat Boston College (1-10 overall) and Virginia Tech (3-8 with an interim coach).
The 3 losses that have followed came against Cal, Clemson, and SMU. SMU was the only decent team of the bunch, and the Mustangs absolutely smoked the Cards.
Louisville operated with a backup quarterback in the game against SMU. The status of starter Miller Moss, who was available for the SMU game but didn’t play because of a foot injury, is up in the air. Jeff Brohm said Monday that Louisville could use multiple quarterbacks against Kentucky.
Louisville fans are ready to move on from Moss, even after redshirt freshman Deuce Adams completed 12 of his 17 passes for 94 yards against SMU. It’s a rough spot.
Somehow, despite a 4-game losing streak earlier in the year, Kentucky is on the cusp of a bowl game. The Wildcats need a win to get to 6. And quarterback Cutter Boley has to be encouraged when he turns on the tape of the SMU game.
Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings threw for 303 yards and 3 scores against Louisville. Earlier this month, Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele threw for 323 yards and 2 scores. Since picking off 4 passes from Carson Beck in the win over Miami and 2 from Grayson James in the win over Boston College, Louisville has gone 4 straight games without an interception.
The Cards have lost at least 1 turnover every game this season, and they have 1 takeaway total in their last 4. I’ve been fading this team for weeks and I’m not stopping here.
Bet Kentucky +3.5 (-115 via Fanatics)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
