Can programs like Florida actually hire a Playoff-bound coach? It feels like we’re about to find out
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This coaching carousel is unprecedented, and we’re not even into November yet.
That’s not to dismiss the chaos that 2021 yielded. After all, who could forget when Lincoln Riley walked straight out of Oklahoma for USC after a Bedlam loss? We also had Florida, Miami (FL) and Oregon all open up. And might I remind folks that Brian Kelly left potentially Playoff-bound Notre Dame for LSU?
But 4 years after that 1-of-1 coaching carousel, we can already call the 2025 cycle unprecedented because athletic directors are facing a new question that doesn’t have an answer yet in the 12-team Playoff era.
Can you actually hire a Playoff-bound coach?
Kelly’s 2021 situation at Notre Dame might have some thinking the answer to that is a definitive “yes.” The Irish, who were idle entering conference championship weekend as the No. 6 team in the country, essentially needed to hit a 2-leg parlay of a Baylor win vs. Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game and a Georgia win vs. Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. The first leg hit in dramatic fashion, but Bryce Young played the best game of his career in a Heisman Trophy-clinching win against Playoff-bound Georgia.
In other words, we never really found out. Also, Kelly left Notre Dame because he felt he couldn’t win a national championship in South Bend. Perhaps a pair of previous blowout losses in semifinal games to eventual-national champs spoiled any potential hope he had for his 2021 squad, or he just didn’t think Notre Dame would go 2-for-2 with conference championship breaks to make the Playoff.
This also isn’t like a 2017 Scott Frost situation, which included him agreeing to become Nebraska’s head coach before undefeated UCF would earn a New Year’s 6 Bowl bid. UCF wasn’t about to play for a national title (don’t tell their fans I said that). And while we’ve seen assistants from national championship-bound teams like 2016 Lane Kiffin and 2021 Dan Lanning leave for head coaching jobs, let’s not pretend that compares to the face of the program being on the move with a title hanging in the balance.
The 12-team Playoff with hiring head coaches is different. Think about the timeline for a vacancy at a place like Florida, and what it would entail if Playoff-contending coaches like Kiffin, Brent Key, Eli Drinkwitz, Jon Sumrall and Alex Golesh are considered Scott Stricklin’s top target (they all have 0-1 losses entering Week 9). Under the new calendar, here’s what that looks like:
- Dec. 3-5: Early Signing Period
- Dec. 5-6: Conference Championship Weekend
- Dec. 7: Selection Sunday
- Dec. 19-20: College Football Playoff 1st Round
- Dec. 31-Jan. 1: College Football Playoff Quarterfinals
- Jan. 2-16: Transfer Portal Window
- Jan. 8-9: College Football Playoff Semifinals
- Jan. 19: College Football Playoff National Championship
All of that is worth remembering. Long gone are the days in which athletic directors can wait until January to make a coaching hire. Shoot, based on the early-season firings we’ve had so far, it feels like gone are the days in which athletic directors can even wait until December to make a coaching hire.
We’re now in an era wherein coaches with a legitimate national title path could be faced with the dilemma of accepting another job or risk watching it go to a non-Playoff coach.
Will they even entertain those conversations or try to avoid them altogether in fear that it could derail a potential title run?
Let’s say Ole Miss is looking like a lock to make the Playoff at 10-2, but is idle heading into conference championship weekend. If word gets out that Kiffin has agreed to become the next coach at Florida just as his team is set to earn its first Playoff berth in program history, isn’t that begging for a distraction to derail a national title run? Alternatively, will an athletic director be willing to wait on a Playoff-bound coach if they’re told they don’t want to make a decision until after the season? That’s awkward.
That’s also going to be well past the Early Signing Period. Sure, that can be salvaged a bit because the new transfer portal window opens on Jan. 2, AKA the day after the quarterfinal games are played — something that’s not a coincidence — but what’s to say that a potential coach on the move will lose in the quarterfinals? Athletic directors don’t know that. The coaches don’t even know when that final game will be.
It’s possible that athletic directors will try to work out handshake deals with Playoff-bound coaches, but there’s great risk in that. That could leak and become public knowledge, or it’s possible that winning a couple of Playoff games could change a head coach’s mind and negate a handshake deal. Could we have Playoff-bound coaches sign nondisclosure agreements (NDAs) with their new schools to try to protect all parties? It’s possible, but certainly not ideal, especially if that means a coach is secretly trying to do 2 jobs at once.
There are a variety of ways in which this gets messy. Hoping that a prospective candidate misses out on the Playoff might seem simple until you also remember that fanbases probably won’t be thrilled with a couple of Playoff-derailing late-season losses from their new coach. Few roads, if any, feel clean.
Last year when there wasn’t a single FBS program who paid an 8-figure buyout to a fired head coach, some incorrectly connected dots and assumed we were getting more frugal spending because of the upcoming revenue sharing era. A year later, that take is freezing cold. Programs like Purdue, UCF and West Virginia couldn’t dream of poaching Playoff-bound coaches last year. That feels a touch different than the potential market this year at places like Florida and Penn State, perhaps with schools like Auburn and Florida State (among others) soon joining the carousel.
Despite what anyone suggests, nobody knows how this unprecedented coaching carousel will turn out. We’re entering a unique time in our sport. The first year of this new calendar coincided with the first year that this pressing question is going to be asked at several places. And if the answer is “yes,” we can come to another conclusion.
More power to you.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
