CFP Preview: Key stats, trends and predictions for all quarterfinal games
Published:
It’s time for the quarterfinal round of the College Football Playoff.
Below, we’ll break down 1 key stat or trend for each of the four upcoming games this weekend. Particular matchups will have a big impact on which teams advance to the semifinal rounds next weekend. We’ll also include a prediction for each game.
CFP quarterfinal predictions
Let’s dive in:
Miami vs. Ohio State
Miami’s best offensive weapon all season has been true freshman receiver Malachi Toney. He set the program’s single-season receptions record against the Aggies last week, but he didn’t have a very good game overall. He caught just 5 passes for 22 yards against Texas A&M and had an average depth of target of just 2.5 yards, per Pro Football Focus. Toney primarily operates out of the slot, but occasionally will line up as an outside receiver in Miami’s offense.
Stopping Toney the way Texas A&M did will be perhaps Ohio State’s biggest challenge on Thursday. Toney was responsible for 30.3% of all Miami receptions this season. That’s a higher reception share than any other player who made the College Football Playoff this season (Jeremiah Smith is No. 2 in that category at 27.5%). Simply put, Miami’s offense goes as Toney goes. Ohio State has only allowed a handful of receivers to clear 60 yards this season. Most of them have been primarily outside receivers. The only exception, humorously, is Ohio’s Chase Hendricks, who scored a 67-yard touchdown early in the 3rd quarter against the Buckeyes when that was still a competitive game. Since then, Ohio State has done a great job of limiting damage from slot receivers.
Pick: Malachi Toney under 62.5 receiving yards (-115 on BetMGM)
Oregon vs. Texas Tech
I want to call attention to something in Texas Tech’s offensive profile. According to Game on Paper, the Red Raiders are in the 88th percentile nationally in late-down success rate. However, they’re in the 11th percentile in average third-down distance. That’s the kind of contradiction you usually only see a few weeks into a season — not after a team has played 13 games.
It’s alarming to me that Texas Tech has been so reliant on picking up big yardage on third downs. Particularly because the Red Raiders are now matching up with an Oregon team that ranks in the 99th percentile nationally in early down EPA-per-play. I think Oregon is going to put Texas Tech in third-and-long a lot and I’d bet on the Ducks being able to get off the field more often than not when they do.
Pick: Texas Tech team total under 24.5 (-120 on DraftKings)
Not in a legal betting state? You can still get in on the action with prediction markets like Kalshi and Novig!
Alabama vs. Indiana
Fernando Mendoza won this year’s Heisman Trophy. Deservedly so, when you look at his whole body of work. He finished No. 2 in the country in passer efficiency rating and was a massive reason why the Hoosiers were the only team to go 13-0 before the College Football Playoff.
Now that those caveats are out of the way, let’s take a look at his stats against teams who finished the year ranked in the top-35 in ESPN’s SP+ defense metric:
- 63% completion percentage, 8.3 yards per attempt, 5 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 140 passer efficiency rating
That’s what he did against Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa and Penn State. Here are Mendoza’s numbers against the other 8 FBS teams he faced this season:
- 74% completion percentage, 9.6 yards per attempt, 23 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 193 passer efficiency rating
Talk about going from good to great. I don’t want to misrepresent this too much, because Mendoza did feast on some decent defenses (Wisconsin and Illinois were both top-50 in SP+ at the end of the regular season). But I do think there’s something to the idea that he’s less-prolific against top-end defenses. For what it’s worth Alabama is No. 8 in defensive SP+ heading into this game. The last time Mendoza had multiple passing touchdowns against a defense ranked inside the top 80 of SP+ was on Sept. 27 against Iowa.
Pick: Fernando Mendoza under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+102 on FanDuel)
Ole Miss vs. Georgia
For the first 3 games of this story, I focused on the statistics. Forgive me for a moment for slipping into the narrative. I can’t get over the idea that most of Ole Miss’s offensive coaching staff has been splitting their time between preparing for Georgia while also helping Lane Kiffin build out a transfer portal strategy for LSU in 2026. Those are both incredibly time-sensitive, laborious jobs. The notion that numerous members of the Ole Miss staff could adequately prepare for Georgia under these conditions is ludicrous. Especially when considering that Georgia’s staff has (likely) been preparing to face Ole Miss since the CFP bracket was announced on Dec. 7.
I just don’t think this dynamic is being factored into the betting markets enough. We’ve seen plenty of blowouts throughout the last decade in the College Football Playoff. I would posit that’s because extra time to prepare for big games is exponentially impactful for the better team with the better coaching staff. Since 2014, the average margin of victory in College Football Playoff games is a whopping 17.5 points. Over the same span, the average margin of victory in regular-season SEC games is 15.8 points. Remember, that sample includes numerous matchups between the SEC’s doormats and its blue bloods — and the average margin of victory is still almost a couple points lower.
The marginal difference between good teams and great teams gets magnified in the Playoff when elite coaching staffs have multiple weeks to prepare. Georgia’s staff may have the biggest preparation advantage any coaching staff has had in the history of the CFP. I think this game is a good spot to play some alternate lines. .
Pick: Georgia -9.5 (+130 on BetMGM)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
