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Clemson vs. Florida: Clemson Super Regional betting preview

Published: Jun 7, 2024 · 1:00 PM EDT

Clemson will host Florida in an intriguing Super Regional matchup this weekend with a trip to Omaha on the line.

Clemson has won 7 of its last 8 games overall dating back to its final regular-season series. Florida needed a series win over Georgia in its regular-season finale to even be eligible to receive an at-large bid. The Gators then prevailed in the Stillwater Regional after winning back-to-back games over hosts Oklahoma State last weekend.

The Tigers are favored in this matchup, but Florida has the star power and experience to make it a close series. The Gators faced the toughest strength-of-schedule in the country this season (per RPI) and are much better than their 32-28 record might indicate.

Here’s a look at betting lines, pitching matchups and other info for this series:

Betting lines for the Clemson Super Regional

Clemson: -194 to win (via FanDuel)

Florida: +148 to win (via FanDuel)

Projected pitching matchups for the Clemson Super Regional

Here’s a look at Clemson’s projected rotation for this weekend:

Tristan Smith: 3.88 ERA in 46.1 innings | 62 strikeouts | 29 walks
Aidan Knaak: 2.96 ERA in 79 innings | 103 strikeouts | 26 walks
Ethan Darden: 4.96 ERA in 65.1 innings | 40 strikeouts | 14 walks

Clemson’s pitching staff had an excellent season in the ACC. Smith is an excellent option as a Game 1 starter and Knaak misses bats at a very strong rate (he’s 33rd nationally in strikeouts per 9 innings). Smith and Knaak have already been announced as Clemson’s starters for Game 1 and 2, respectively. Darden has pitched some out of the bullpen this year, but has lately been part of Clemson’s rotation. Billy Barlow will likely play a role on the mound for Clemson this weekend as well.

For Florida, here’s how its projected rotation looks going into this series:

Liam Peterson: 5.61 ERA in 59.1 innings | 70 strikeouts | 32 walks
Jac Caglianone: 4.57 ERA in 67 innings | 76 strikeouts | 46 walks
TBD

Liam Peterson has been announced as Florida’s Game 1 starter, and 2-way star Jac Caglianone will likely get an opportunity on the mound at some point in this series. Florida’s 3rd starter is up in the air, however, as they’ve struggled to find consistency from that role all season. Pierce Coppola started the 3rd game of the Stillwater Regional last week and is definitely a candidate to take the bump again in this series. Cade Fisher, Brandon Neely and Jake Clemente are also options the Gators could consider.

Florida’s pitching staff has struggled all season long. No UF pitcher who has thrown at least 10 innings this season — bullpen or starter — has an ERA below 4.00 on the year. Assuming Caglianone gets the ball in Game 2 on Sunday, Florida’s Game 3 pitcher could be dependent on its bullpen needs over the first 2 games in this series.

How the lineups stack up in the Clemson Super Regional

Clemson has a pair of 20+ home run hitters in its lineup in Blake Wright and Jimmy Obertop. They are also 2 of 5 qualified hitters in Clemson’s order who are batting at least .300 on the year. As a team, Clemson finished 35th nationally in 2024 with a slugging percentage of .512.

The Tigers drew 295 walks this season — a number that’s good, but not great. It ranks tied for 54th nationally entering this weekend. That’s something to note as Clemson faces a Florida pitching staff whose biggest flaw is issuing free passes at an alarming rate (over 4.7 walks per 9 innings).

Florida’s offense is headlined by the great Caglianone, who set several college baseball records this season. Most recently, he became just the 2nd NCAA player all-time to have multiple 30+ home run seasons. He enters Saturday’s game against Clemson with 31 home runs on the season to go along with a .410 batting average and a 1.373 OPS.

The rest of Florida’s lineup does leave quite a bit to be desired. The Gators only have one other qualified hitter who is batting better than .270 on the season (Ty Evans). This is a boom-or-bust lineup that gets by on home runs (7 hitters have 10+ homers on the year). As a team, Florida’s 125 home runs rank 6th nationally entering the weekend. Clemson’s pitching staff has been susceptible to the long ball at times, allowing 81 on the year (6th-worst total in the ACC). Clemson’s projected rotation of Smith, Knaak and Darden combined to be responsible for 21 of those home runs in 190.2 innings.

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What public models are saying about the Clemson Super Regional

Florida is a significant underdog in the betting markets entering this weekend, but what are the public projection models saying about this series? Here’s a breakdown:

Warren Nolan’s ELO ranking has Clemson at No. 8 and Florida at No. 14. Both programs moved up considerably after winning regionals last weekend. Warren Nolan’s projections give Clemson a 54% chance to win Game 1 on Saturday.

Sonny Moore’s power ratings favor Florida in this series. The Gators are ranked 6th nationally while Clemson isn’t too far behind at No. 10. Florida moved up several spots after winning the Stillwater Regional over Oklahoma State, who entered last weekend ranked in Sonny Moore’s top 3.

Parker Fleming’s projections give a substantial edge to Clemson. The Tigers have a 69.25% chance to win this series, per Fleming’s model.

Pick for the Clemson Super Regional

Clemson’s excellent starting rotation should be the difference in this series. Florida’s offense is overly-reliant on the home run ball, and that’s not a great matchup in this series. The Tigers’ 3 projected starters have pitched about 37% of the team’s innings this year, but have only given up 26% of Clemson’s home runs allowed. If the trio of Smith, Knaak and Darden can keep the ball in the yard, Florida is going to have a tough time scoring runs. Florida has been surviving against teams of this caliber all season, but I think the Tigers have enough to get to Omaha.

PICK: Clemson to win the Clemson Super Regional -194 (via FanDuel)

First pitch is at 2 p.m. ET on Saturday afternoon.

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.