College football futures market update: Conference title best bets entering November
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November is finally here.
That means the college football season is heating up and each game down the stretch will mean that much more to conference title races across the country. It’s time to survey the futures market from numerous real money betting apps and compare those odds to the latest conference title projections from ESPN’s SP+ model.
A couple of important notes before we dive in: 1) All references to “expected value” are based on comparing projections from Bill Connelly’s SP+ formula to betting odds from a variety of the best online sportsbooks. 2) After calculating the expected value of a wager on all the remaining contenders for conference championships, here are the 3 best expected value bets (followed by some other best bets in key conferences):
Alabama to win the SEC (+2500 on DraftKings)
- Implied odds: 3.85%
- SP+ odds: 10.8%
- Expected value: $180.80 on a $100 wager
It’s not often that Alabama is a borderline long-shot to win the SEC before the month of November, but that’s where things are at in Year 1 of the Kalen DeBoer era. And yet, SP+ is showing significant value on betting the Crimson Tide to win this league. Alabama does already have 2 conference losses, but the Tide have the benefit of having a matchup vs. LSU in Week 11. A win over the Tigers would get one potential stumbling block out of the way. Alabama also has the tiebreaker over Georgia in the event that the Bulldogs lose again.
ESPN’s other predictive model, FPI, is even more bullish on the Tide. FPI gives them an 11.2% chance to win the SEC. Alabama getting to the SEC title game would require some serious chaos down the stretch in the SEC, but that’s why it’s considered a long shot at this stage.
James Madison to win the Sun Belt (+850 on FanDuel)
- Implied odds: 10.53%
- SP+ odds: 24.4%
- Expected value: $131.80 on a $100 wager
The Sun Belt is the only FBS conference that still has divisions in 2024. That makes this race a bit easier to handicap. The Dukes currently sit in 4th place in the East with a 2-2 record on the year. However, SP+ is still very bullish on JMU’s chances to win this league relative to the market. At over a 24% chance to win the Sun Belt, JMU is No. 2 for the entire conference in title odds per SP+ behind only West frontrunner Louisiana.
James Madison will close out the regular season with Georgia State, Old Dominion, App State and Marshall. JMU needs to win out and hope that Georgia Southern (3-1) loses twice this month in order to take the divisional crown.
Toledo to win the MAC (+1000 on Caesars)
- Implied odds: 9.09%
- SP+ odds: 18.3%
- Expected value: $101.30 on a $100 wager
Toledo is a historical power in the MAC, but the Rockets have already lost 2 conference games this season. That’s why they find themselves as relative long-shots in a league that they’ve frequently been at the top of in recent years. Still, SP+ sees plenty of value on backing Toledo down the stretch. Toledo closes out the year with Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, Ohio and Akron.
The MAC is a mess with just a few weeks to go in the regular season. Eight of the 12 teams in this league are 2-2 or better and only 1 program (Western Michigan) is currently undefeated in league play. It wouldn’t be too surprising to see Toledo squeak into the conference title game after all the dust settles. If that happens, the Rockets may end up as the favorite before kickoff of the championship game.
Other best bets
Aside from the top-3, the next highest-expected value conference title future based on SP+ projections is Army to win the AAC. The Black Knights are +180 to win that league on FanDuel and have a 62.6% chance to win the conference title, per SP+. That’s an expected value of $75.28 on a $100 bet.
The best expected-value bet in the SEC outside of Alabama is Texas A&M. A bet on the Aggies at +460 (via FanDuel) translates to an expected value of $38.32 on a $100 bet, per SP+ odds (24.7%). The Aggies enter Week 10 as the only SEC team that remains undefeated in league play.
In the Big Ten, Penn State appears to be the best value-bet at the moment ahead of this weekend’s clash with Ohio State. SP+ gives Penn State a 24.9% chance to win the Big Ten as of publication. A bet on the Nittany Lions to win the Big Ten at +425 (via ESPN BET) equates to an expected value of $30.73 on a $100 wager.
Kansas State is the best +EV bet in the Big 12. The Wildcats have a 30.1% chance to win that league, per SP+ projections. However, they are priced at +340 to win the Big 12 on FanDuel. That means an expected value of $32.44 on a $100 bet.
In the ACC, the highest +EV bet appears to be SMU. The Mustangs are currently undefeated in ACC play ahead of their matchup against Pitt on Saturday. SP+ gives SMU a 15.3% chance to win the ACC in its debut season. The best odds come from ESPN BET, where the Mustangs are priced at +700 to take home the conference crown. That’s an expected value of $22.40 on a $100 bet.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
