College football fans are enjoying that sports betting is now legal in multiple states and more available than ever online. So if you’re going to bet on the Week 2 action, do you go with your gut, look over the teams’ resumes or try to crunch some numbers?
One of the most widely recognized analytical-based rankings in college football is called S&P+, created and calculated by Bill Connelly. Rather than “resume” (wins), each team’s ranking focuses on a score calculated from efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers stats. Another way to view the score is a measure, in points, of how much better or worse a team is than the average team on a neutral field. In the Week 2 S&P+ rankings, Alabama is the No. 1 team in the country with a score of 35.4.
S&P+ can be of use to gamblers. Connelly notes that finding the difference between two teams S&P+ can be used to determine how much a team should be favored by against another on a neutral field. Connelly writes that, “in terms of performance, S&P+ tends to hit between 51 and 54 percent against the Vegas spread, a solid range.” To the casual observer that might not seem like much, but if units are managed correctly, 51-54 percent can become quite significant to gamblers.
Some, however, think all these analytics are a waste of time. And plenty of bettors may come away thinking the same.
I’ll never understand why it’s regarded as somewhat useful. It’s utterly useless.
— Barrett Sallee (@BarrettSallee) September 5, 2018
With S&P+ introduced (and hopefully at least somewhat explained), let’s dive into the latest lines from MyBookie involving top-5 teams and see how they compare to S&P+.
No. 1 Alabama (1-0) vs. Arkansas State
The line: Alabama favored by 37 points.
Thoughts: The difference in S&P+ is 33.3 in Alabama’s favor. Does the Bryant-Denny crowd give Alabama an extra four-point boost? Some bettors may be steered away by the unknown of when Saban might let up on the gas. And, if so, there is always the garbage time concern if UA empties the benches.
No. 2 Clemson (1-0) at Texas A&M (1-0)
The line: Clemson favored by 13 points.
Thoughts: S&P+ says Clemson is 14.5 points better than Texas A&M on neutral field, but the Kyle Field factor likely pushes the bet in the Aggies factor if you put any stock in the metric (and home-field advantage).
No. 3 Georgia (1-0) at No. 24 South Carolina (1-0)
The line: UGA favored by 10 points.
Thoughts: The S&P+ difference on this one suggests Georgia would be favored by about 14 points on a neutral field. The game, however, is not on a neutral field, as South Carolina will get a home-field boost at Williams-Brice Stadium. Is home-field worth a theoretical four points? That’s an age-old question and ultimately the bettor’s call.
No. 4 Ohio State (1-0) vs. Rutgers (1-0)
The line: Ohio State favored by 35 points.
Thoughts: S&P+ says Ohio State is 29.7 points better on a neutral field. Like others, this one comes down to the bettor’s opinion of home-field advantage. Ohio State put up 77 points last week, making some wonder if any offense can truly keep up when the Buckeyes are firing on all cylinders. But Saturday should be strength vs. strength.
Rutgers defense (B1G rank)
Points allowed: 0 (1)
Rush yards allowed: 69 (3)
Pass yards allowed: 100 (1)
Total yards allowed: 169 (1)Ohio State offense (B1G ranks)
Points: 77 (1)
Rush yards: 375 (1)
Pass yards: 346 (1)
Total offense: 721 (1)These #B1G titans clash Saturday
— Dustin Schutte (@SchutteCFB) September 4, 2018
No. 5 Wisconsin (1-0) vs. New Mexico
The line: Wisconsin favored by 35 points.
Thoughts: New Mexico is not supposed to be a good team by any means (-7.2 S&P+), but Wisconsin isn’t a top-10 team by the metric (19.4 S&P+). The difference of 26.2 is way off from the 35-point line. While Incarnate Word is no football powerhouse, New Mexico did manage to score 62 points on its Week 1 opponent.
Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.
