College Football Playoff picks: 3 plus-money bets for the semifinal round
Published:
The semifinal field for this year’s College Football Playoff is about as unpredictable as any CFP final 4 in recent memory.
There’s not a blue blood in sight — the closest is Miami, who hasn’t won a national championship in roughly a quarter century. Ole Miss claims 3 national titles, but none since 1962. Neither Oregon nor Indiana have any claimed national championships.
College Football Playoff picks
With those games coming up later this week, let’s break down 3 College Football Playoff picks and plus-money bets where there may be some value heading into semifinal weekend.
Mark Fletcher Jr. to hit 100 rushing yards
Let’s not overthink this one. Miami has leaned heavily on Mark Fletcher Jr. in the Playoff and it has worked brilliantly so far. He had 172 yards in Miami’s win over Texas A&M and 90 yards in the Canes’ upset of Ohio State. Fletcher averaged a stout 18 carries per game in those contests as well.
This matchup against Ole Miss is a friendly one for Miami’s rushing attack. The Rebels come in to this game ranked 130th nationally in rushing success rate defense, per Game on Paper. They’re also in just the 14th percentile when it comes to limiting explosive rushing plays.
So far this postseason, Miami has been very cautious when it comes to Carson Beck and the passing attack. Beck is averaging just 5.4 yards per attempt with an average depth of target of just 7.6 yards, per PFF. He’s also yet to record a big-time throw. Given the matchup advantage over Ole Miss in the run game, I expect Miami will continue to lean on Fletcher in a big way.
Pick: Mark Fletcher Jr. 100+ rushing yards (+123 on DraftKings)
Ole Miss fourth quarter money line
This is admittedly a bit dubious pre-flop, but I think there’s some value on the Rebels to win the fourth quarter. The primary reason is that the difference between Beck and Chambliss is enormous, particularly from a confidence perspective. When this game gets tight, I think Chambliss will be making big plays while the Canes play things more conservatively.
Ole Miss was also just the more proficient fourth quarter team all year long. From a yards-per-play standpoint, the Rebels had a +1.2 differential in the fourth quarter against power-conference teams. Miami’s differential was just +0.4. The fourth quarter line is derived from the spread, so it makes sense that Miami would be favored (the Canes are -3.5, per the latest college football odds). But I think in this case, signs point toward a better-than-average chance for Ole Miss to win the final stanza.
Pick: Ole Miss +120 in the fourth quarter (via DraftKings)
Oregon team total under
Despite the final score against Texas Tech, I didn’t like what I saw from Oregon’s offense last week. The operation was consistently messy. Dante Moore continues to have issues with interceptions and really struggles under pressure. Per PFF, here are Moore’s pressure stats from this season: 8.1 yards per attempt, 3 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 15 sacks, 16 scrambles. Not terrible, but not ideal either. Moore hasn’t been a difference maker in these spots this season. His big-time throw rate against pressure is just 2.9% this season. When kept clean, that figure soars above 8%.
As for the running game, Oregon has rushed for a putrid 170 yards on its last 89 carries against power-conference opposition. The degree to which Oregon will be relying on Moore to make plays is concerning. I trust Moore to make all the easy throws, but we’ve seen him struggle when he gets sped up. I think Indiana will keep the Ducks under 20 points.
Pick: Oregon team total under 20.5 (+100 on BetMGM)
Not in a legal betting state? You can still get in on the action with legal prediction markets like Kalshi! Here’s a look at the live marketplace for Ole Miss vs. Miami on Kalshi:
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
