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What College Football Playoff rankings should look like for Week 13
By John Crist
Published:
The fourth installment of the College Football Playoff rankings will be released tonight (7 p.m. ET, ESPN). Expect no changes at the top.
No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 Clemson were all victorious this past Saturday. While both the Buckeyes and Wolverines struggled with lesser Big Ten foes, the Crimson Tide and Tigers each won going away.
The biggest news of Week 12 was No. 5 Louisville getting blown out of the building by Houston on Thursday night. The Cougars know how to get up for quality opponents, as evidenced by a season-opening upset of then-No. 3 Oklahoma, although that makes later losses to Navy and SMU so much tougher to explain.
Because the Cardinals had a fairly weak résumé compared to the other candidates — the proverbial “eye test” only goes so far — they have presumably been eliminated from the race. Clemson is the only hope left for the ACC.
Here’s how the fourth CFP rankings should look. There’s no reason whatsoever to expect any movement among the Top 4.
1. alabama
The Crimson Tide weren’t sharp in the first half at home against Chattanooga, which was a blessing in disguise for coach Nick Saban.
After Saban gave his team a tongue-lashing of sorts in the locker room, ‘Bama woke up from its sleepwalk and finished off a 31-3 beatdown. Quarterback Jalen Hurts threw 3 more touchdown passes without a turnover.
Since the Tide are No. 1 unanimously in both human polls and the only undefeated team in the nation from a Power 5 conference, they have a mulligan in their pocket just in case disaster strikes in the Iron Bowl against Auburn. Almost certainly, losing to the Tigers won’t knock them out of the Top 4.
The same can’t be said of any other program on this list. The loser of Michigan-Ohio State is all but a memory. Clemson certainly can’t afford another slip-up, not with the permanent perceived weakness of the ACC.
In order to not make the Final Four, Alabama would have to lose Saturday to Auburn and then Dec. 3 to Florida in the SEC title game. Unfathomable.
2. Ohio State
Michigan State may have fallen after a Final Four run this past season, but the Spartans gave the Buckeyes everything they had in East Lansing.
After scoring what appeared to be the game-tying touchdown with under five minutes to play, MSU coach Mark Dantonio decided to go for the win instead of overtime. However, Sparty’s two-point conversion failed. OSU survived.
Despite being ranked No. 2, Ohio State is a threat to be left on the cutting-room floor even if it defeats Michigan on Saturday. Based on winning the head-to-head matchup, Penn State would actually go to the Big Ten title game over the Buckeyes. That’s assuming the Nittany Lions take care of Michigan State in Week 13, of course.
Not participating in a conference title game means one less opportunity to impress voters. It happened to Baylor and TCU in the Big 12 two years ago. The committee appears to put genuine value on conference champions, too.
All coach Urban Meyer and Co. can do is beat the Wolverines and then hope for the best. That’ll be a nervous week in Columbus, though.
3. michigan
Unlike Ohio State, if the Wolverines come away from this one with a W, they’re guaranteed to go to the Big Ten Championship Game.
Back in Week 4, Big Blue crushed Penn State 49-10 at the Big House. Owning that coveted head-to-head tiebreaker makes all the difference. That’s why the Nittany Lions are just as interested in what happens at The Horseshoe.
After a shocking loss at Iowa seven days before, UM found itself trailing pesky Indiana at halftime 7-3 in Ann Arbor this past Saturday. Nevertheless, coach Jim Harbaugh pushed all the right buttons in the second half to come back and win 20-10. John O’Korn, replacing the injured Wilton Speight, was an ineffective 7-of-16 for 59 yards.
The quarterback situation is worth paying attention to at this point because the committee has made mention of the fact that injuries can be taken into consideration. Speight was the conference’s No. 2-rated passer.
Previously, O’Korn hadn’t seen the field outside of mop-up duty. The Buckeyes have the second-best pass defense in the league, too.
4. clemson
The Tigers have toyed with a handful of inferior opponents in 2016, but in Week 12 they jumped out to an early 21-0 lead on Wake Forest.
CU would go on to win comfortably 35-13 in Winston-Salem. All-world quarterback Deshaun Watson had 1 touchdown through the air and 2 more on the ground, plus he didn’t throw an interception for the second time in three games.
Clemson won’t have much of a chance to make an impression on the committee down the stretch. The regular season comes to an end with a visit from South Carolina, which is better than expected at 6-5 but still light years behind the Tigers talent-wise. However, an even worse Gamecocks squad kept it close at home a year ago.
Having already clinched the ACC’s Atlantic division, CU waits while the Coastal get straightened out on the year’s final full-slate Saturday. It will be either Virginia Tech or North Carolina, with the Hokies having the head-to-head edge.
Clemson’s biggest wins have come over Auburn, Louisville and Florida State. None of those victories look as good today.
NEXT FOUR
5. Washington
If there’s chaos in the Big Ten and a two-loss champion emerges, then a one-loss Huskies bunch that wins the Pac-12 should get invited.
6. Wisconsin
In terms of “good” losses, the Badgers have them: No. 2 Ohio State at home, No. 3 Michigan on the road. Both were seven-point games, too.
7. Oklahoma
After a 1-2 start, the Sooners have won eight straight and will capture the Big 12 with a win over rival Oklahoma State at Bedlam on Dec. 3.
8. Colorado
The Buffaloes have only lost to Michigan and USC. Remember, the Pac-12 was left out a year ago. The committee might not want to do that again.
John Crist is the senior writer for Saturday Down South, a member of the FWAA and a voter for the Heisman Trophy. Send him an e-mail, like him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter.
John Crist is an award-winning contributor to Saturday Down South.
